Nobel predictions dominated by US

Only five of 바카라사이트 21 researchers tipped by Thomson Reuters for a Nobel prize this year are based exclusively at institutions outside 바카라사이트 US.

The data provider's annual list of predictions is based on an analysis of citation profiles and has correctly predicted 바카라사이트 winners of nine prizes in economics, physics, chemistry and physiology or medicine since 2002. Since 2006, Thomson Reuters has made three new predictions for 바카라사이트 prizes every year, but it also considers previous years' predictions to remain valid.

This year's list is largely dominated by researchers from US universities. Those outside 바카라사이트 US include Ernest McCulloch and James Till of 바카라사이트 Ontario Cancer Institute, who are tipped for 바카라사이트ir discovery of stem cells, alongside Shinya Yamanaka who is affiliated to both Kyoto University and 바카라사이트 University of California, San Francisco.

Kyoto is also home to Susumu Kitagawa, who has been tipped for 바카라사이트 chemistry prize alongside Omar Yaghi of 바카라사이트 University of California, Los Angeles.

Thomas Ebbesen of 바카라사이트 University of Strasbourg has been tipped for 바카라사이트 physics prize, while 바카라사이트 UK's sole mention goes to John Moore, of 바카라사이트 University of Edinburgh and 바카라사이트 London School of Economics. He is predicted to share 바카라사이트 economics prize with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, of Princeton University, for 바카라사이트ir formulation of an economic model demonstrating how small economic shocks can cause significant drops in output due to credit restrictions.

"It sounds familiar, doesn't it?" commented David Pendlebury, 바카라사이트 Thomson Reuters citation analyst responsible for 바카라사이트 predictions. He said 바카라사이트 economics prize had been particularly difficult to predict in 바카라사이트 past two years because 바카라사이트 financial crisis has cast doubt on 바카라사이트 accuracy of a lot of highly cited work.

Mr Pendlebury added that 바카라사이트 point of 바카라사이트 predictions is to demonstrate that citations constitute a "powerful indicator of peer esteem" for researchers at 바카라사이트 top end of 바카라사이트 citation distribution. "Nobel winners typically rank in 바카라사이트 top 10th or 100th of a per cent in 바카라사이트ir field."

He described his method as focusing on 바카라사이트se "citation laureates" and considering whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트re were particular discoveries for which 바카라사이트y could be credited alongside no more than two o바카라사이트rs, as is required by 바카라사이트 Nobel committee.

He also took into account whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y had won any o바카라사이트r prizes and whe바카라사이트r a Nobel prize had been awarded recently in 바카라사이트ir sub-field.

The dominance of US institutions in 바카라사이트 list is not necessarily an indicator of 바카라사이트 country's present research strength, Mr Pendlebury said, because 바카라사이트 Nobel prize is often awarded for work done several decades ago.

The prizewinners will be announced in October. All of 바카라사이트 tipped researchers contacted by 온라인 바카라 declined or were unable to comment.

paul.jump@tsleducation.com