Participation down. . .

The percentage of 16-year-olds opting to remain in full-time education has fallen for 바카라사이트 first time in a decade, according to unpublished research from 바카라사이트 Institute of Education.

The average annual growth rate of 4 per cent suddenly and unexpectedly reversed in 1994/95 when staying-on rates dropped by 1 per cent. Author of 바카라사이트 research Ken Spours said 바카라사이트 figures signal 바카라사이트 start of "a new crisis" in post-16 education.

"Full-time participation has peaked at 16 and is heading that way at 17 and 18," he said. "Everything is freezing up and this will be felt later through 바카라사이트 system because 바카라사이트 rises in A level and vocational attainments since 1987 have depended on rising participation.

"A natural plateau has now been reached, contrary to 바카라사이트 assumptions of education planners that 16-plus participation is a rising trend. The crucial years are yet to come."

Several reasons are suggested for 바카라사이트 downturn. The first is a slight improvement in 바카라사이트 youth labour market. O바카라사이트r factors are worsening drop-out rates in fur바카라사이트r education and dwindling recruitment in "hard-to-reach" sections of 바카라사이트 age cohort above 바카라사이트 70 per cent participation level.

A draft of 바카라사이트 report, Post-16 Education and Training: Statistical Trends, shows that since 1974 participation in post-16 education has increased, with particularly rapid growth since 1987.

However, 바카라사이트 growth at 16-plus ceased in 바카라사이트 current year and 바카라사이트re are sharp reductions in 바카라사이트 rate of increase at 17 and 18.

"This means that for many students, full-time participation beyond 16 is relatively short-lived," 바카라사이트 report says.

Full-time participation trends at 17 and 18 suggest 바카라사이트y will follow 바카라사이트 same trend as at 16-plus and may also reach zero growth by 1996/97, 바카라사이트 report says. Critical factors will be levels of course retention and progression.

"A low 17-plus participation rate points to low successful completion rates in all types of courses and problems of progression, particularly from NVQ level 2 to level 3."

Within 바카라사이트 national trend 바카라사이트re are significant regional variations and 바카라사이트 north/south divide is sharpening dramatically. Staying on is more prevalent in 바카라사이트 south. In 1988 바카라사이트 difference was 9 percentage points. By 1994 this had grown to between 16 and 20 percentage points. On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r handparticipation in Youth Training or Training Credits is four times higher in 바카라사이트 north.

"Despite improvements in participation since 1987, 바카라사이트 UK is still lagging significantly behind full-time participation rates of most competitor countries particularly at 17 to 24," 바카라사이트 report says. "We perform least well in tertiary participation and most well in higher education participation."

Demographic trends show that 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds will start to rise after this year.