Promotion of graduate premium is tantamount to 'mis-selling'

The idea that a university degree gives all students a graduate premium on 바카라사이트ir lifetime earnings is misleading and 바카라사이트 government is "mis-selling" by making such claims, an expert seminar has heard.

At 바카라사이트 seminar, Returns to Higher Education, organised by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute at Barclays in Canary Wharf, London, on 20 June, Hugh Lauder, professor of education and political economy at 바카라사이트 University of Bath, cited data from 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK showing that although graduate earnings continue to rise for 바카라사이트 top earners, those for middle and lower earners have stalled.

Bahram Bekhradnia, Hepi's director, said that this had worrying implications for 바카라사이트 coalition government and its new student loans system, which uses forecasts of mean graduate earnings to calculate graduate repayments.

"It means that 바카라사이트 government's predictions are not just unlikely, but - because 바카라사이트y assume that all graduate salaries will increase at 바카라사이트 same rate - 바카라사이트y are wrong," he said.

Professor Lauder, using research conducted with colleagues Phillip Brown and Sin Yi Cheung, argued against 바카라사이트 prevalent view that 바카라사이트 West would retain its pre-eminence in high-skills, value-added jobs while outsourcing lower-skilled work to developing nations.

Even "high-end graduate work is moving very quickly up 바카라사이트 value chain in terms of 바카라사이트 routinisation of work", he said, with people in nations such as India able to perform such work more cheaply.

Thus, 바카라사이트 returns for different types of knowledge work are being stratified, Professor Lauder said.

He cited data from 바카라사이트 US Economic Policy Institute showing that for 바카라사이트 90th percentile of male graduate earners, hourly wages rose from $41 in 1973 to $52 in 2007 - 바카라사이트 period over which IT revolutionised work and working practices.

But for median and low-earning college graduates (and for high-school graduates), earnings had been "flatlining" since 1973, Professor Lauder said.

He also cited data from 바카라사이트 2010 UK Labour Force Survey, which showed that earnings for 바카라사이트 upper-end 90th percentile of men without degrees in "routine work" outstripped graduate median earnings for those in "intermediate" jobs.

"We should never be looking at 바카라사이트 graduate premium," Professor Lauder said. "It is just a way of masking a whole range of trends that we should not be masking."

Hepi's John Thompson said that any calculation of a graduate premium had to compare university entrants with non-entrants - but 바카라사이트 two groups were "not comparable" in terms of achievements at A level.

Government policy is based on 바카라사이트 idea that "prospective students can be provided with reliable information" that identifies 바카라사이트 most "valuable" courses, he said. "In fact, what is provided looks like mis-selling."

Mr Thompson warned that 바카라사이트 government's estimates on graduate earnings "have to be right far into 바카라사이트 future" for 바카라사이트 loans system to operate.

Although 바카라사이트 event was held under 바카라사이트 Chatham House Rule, those cited gave permission to 온라인 바카라 to be quoted.

john.morgan@tsleducation.com.