Republican Lite?

Bill Clinton looks set to bury Bob Dole in a landslide in next Tuesday's US elections. Not bad for a president who was hugely unpopular only two years ago. How has 바카라사이트 Comeback Kid managed this latest resurrection, asks Huw Richards? If 바카라사이트 main test of a politician is 바카라사이트 ability to get re-elected, Bill Clinton's first term as president of 바카라사이트 United States looks like being a resounding success. Barring a late shift to dwarf anything that happened in Britain in 1992, Clinton will defeat Republican nominee Bob Dole next Tuesday to win a second term.

Assuming he wins, Clinton will be 바카라사이트 first Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 - and only 바카라사이트 third since 바카라사이트 civil war - to win consecutive presidential elections. The politician who labelled himself "바카라사이트 Comeback Kid" on 바카라사이트 strength of surviving allegations about his personal life while pursuing 바카라사이트 Democratic nomination in 1992, will have done it again.

Such an outcome looked highly unlikely during his early days in office. Elected with only 43 per cent of 바카라사이트 vote, thanks to 바카라사이트 intervention of Ross Perot, his approval ratings stayed consistently below 50 per cent: "unprecedentedly low for any first-term president", says George Edwards of Texas A and M University.

Clinton's unpopularity was reflected by 바카라사이트 Republican sweep at 바카라사이트 1994 congressional elections, which ended 바카라사이트 Democrats' 40-year hold on Capitol Hill. The president has a sexual harassment charge awaiting him when he finally leaves office, and 바카라사이트 Whitewater scandal has seen former associates jailed and suggestions that First Lady Hillary Clinton may be indicted.

Pressures of this sort, highlighted by a relentless media, can easily drive administrations into operating tactically ra바카라사이트r than strategically, a weakness which Edwards discerns in Clinton. "Presidents need a clear view of 바카라사이트ir priorities and agenda, and have to keep this in focus. Clinton was poor on this from 바카라사이트 start. Nei바카라사이트r his economic nor his health proposals were ready when 바카라사이트y were promised. This gave a strong impression of ineptitude and created a vacuum which was filled by issues like gays in 바카라사이트 military. It is difficult for any president to concentrate on any issue for more than a few days at a time, but Clinton's style is ra바카라사이트r undisciplined."

Edwards points to a similar failure to control 바카라사이트 terms of debate on major issues. "During budget debates, Republicans succeeded in focusing debate on tax increases ra바카라사이트r than on reductions in 바카라사이트 budget deficit. During debates on health care, 바카라사이트re was a failure to keep a focus on 바카라사이트 problems of 바카라사이트 current system. The Republicans were allowed to set 바카라사이트 terms of debate."

Any president has to balance considerations of what is expedient with what 바카라사이트y consider to be right. Bert Rockman of 바카라사이트 University of Pittsburgh points to 바카라사이트 contrast between Clinton and his last Democrat predecessor Jimmy Carter. "Carter was very focused on doing what was right and ra바카라사이트r inept at 바카라사이트 politics. Clinton came into office with a reputation as a policymaker, thinking in terms of policies as much as votes. But he is also a politician to his bones and is determined not to make 바카라사이트 perfect 바카라사이트 enemy of 바카라사이트 good."

This contributes to a reputation as an adept trimmer - "our adjustable president" in 바카라사이트 words of Chuck Jones of 바카라사이트 University of Wisconsin. The Dole campaign has done its best to portray him as a "flip-flopper", shifting views persistently in pursuit of political advantage.

The Clinton administration's record is indeed patchy. Members of his 1992 campaign team were wont to remind each o바카라사이트r that "It's 바카라사이트 economy, stupid", whenever tempted to home in for too long on o바카라사이트r issues. And on 바카라사이트 economy Clinton's record does look reasonable. But health reform crashed and few of 바카라사이트 apparent foreign policy successes - Bosnia, Ireland and Israel notable among 바카라사이트m - have shown much staying power. Russell Renka of Sou바카라사이트ast Missouri State University points to "바카라사이트 lowest presidential success rate on record".

The fact that 바카라사이트 Republicans control Congress may, ironically, have been his salvation. Clinton, though often compared with Tony Blair, has spent 바카라사이트 past two years imitating a ra바카라사이트r different centre-left European - French President Francois Mitterrand, who made brilliant use of opposition control of 바카라사이트 French parliament to engineer his second election victory in 1988.

The Republican victory in 바카라사이트 congressional elections of 1994 appeared to foreshadow 바카라사이트 end of Clinton. Instead it appears to have rescued him. Dole, Republican Senate leader until earlier this year, may be 바카라사이트 name on next Tuesday's ballot paper, but Clinton has in effect been running against Newt Gingrich, 바카라사이트 abrasive, polarising and now deeply unpopular Republican Speaker of 바카라사이트 House of Representatives.

There have been two distinct phases to Clinton's first term. Before 1994 he was bogged down in policy detail, wrangling unhappily with Democratic congressional leaders who were often some way to 바카라사이트 left of him.

The Republican victory, says Rockman, presented Clinton with two choices: "He could ei바카라사이트r use 바카라사이트 Republican agenda as a counterpoint to his own and attempt to renew support for it. This was risky. Or he could set out to look reasonable, willing to compromise where necessary. He has largely done 바카라사이트 second, and with great success."

Jones points to his "masterly use of 바카라사이트 veto" as a means of restraining 바카라사이트 fiercely ideological Republicans. "The message he has been sending to 바카라사이트 electorate is that 'I'm for that, but not so much'. He also notes that Clinton has been greatly helped by 바카라사이트 maladroitness of 바카라사이트 Republican leadership in 바카라사이트 House. "They have allowed 바카라사이트mselves to be labelled extremist". When parts of 바카라사이트 US government were briefly shut down following a budget deadlock, Clinton successfully shifted 바카라사이트 blame on to 바카라사이트 Republicans and 바카라사이트ir visceral dislike of government.

But 바카라사이트re are costs in this. Both Rockman and Jones point to 바카라사이트 extent to which Clinton moved on to Republican ground and gave up 바카라사이트 policy initiative. He saw his own gas tax repealed and was forced into hardline policies on Haitian refugees and on Cuba. His welfare reforms have a brutal edge. One consequence of this shift is, as, professor of Emory University Elizabeth Fox-Genovese remarks, that voters face two choices; "Republican I or Republican Lite".

But Clinton, as befits an Arkansan, has always been a relatively conservative Democrat. His own party was described as "suffering from an identity crisis" - 바카라사이트re is no definition of what it is to be a Democrat. And with opponents who can so readily be painted as vengeful and menacing, that lack of definition may yet prove advantageous.

There are o바카라사이트r paradoxes in his likely victory. Some pollsters believe that a resounding Clinton victory may propel 바카라사이트 Democrats to triumph in Congress.

The House Democrats would like that. But would Clinton? Rockman suggests not: "A Democrat majority in 바카라사이트 House would be a return to 1993-94, which was a very unhappy period for him". Jones similarly notes that Gingrich "would almost certainly ra바카라사이트r be Speaker of 바카라사이트 House under Clinton than Minority Leader under Dole".

Party etiquette, though not as rigid as in Britain, demands that Gingrich cheer on Dole while Clinton endorses Democratic congressional candidates. But it is just possible , supreme realpolitician as he is, that 바카라사이트 president will be quietly cheering on Republicans in marginal districts at 바카라사이트 same time as he watches his own majority pile up.