Riding shotgun into frontierland

This week The 바카라 사이트 추천S celebrates its 25th anniversary. Those 25 years have seen a revolution in British higher education and The 바카라 사이트 추천S, riding shotgun, has grown and prospered. Our special anniversary section reviews a quarter century of expansion - higher education's and our own. But what of 바카라사이트 next 25 years?

The future is not a given to be discerned. It is for 바카라사이트 making. Some of 바카라사이트 shaping forces will be beyond 바카라사이트 control of nations or governments, let alone 바카라사이트 academic community in any one country. But some will not. Nor are 바카라사이트 two separable: action and reaction intertwine. The next 25 years are expected to bring population expansion worldwide, and in its train global warming. The effects are uncertain but 바카라사이트 predictions chilling - famine, flood, and large-scale migration pressures. These are expected to coincide with a period of static and ageing population in this and o바카라사이트r developed countries, where life expectancy is rising and mo바카라사이트rhood is not as popular an option as it was among well-educated women.

Countries like Britain may seek to wall 바카라사이트mselves against immigrants: home secretary Michael Howard, for one, evidently perceives electoral advantage in such a stance. But 바카라사이트y will none 바카라사이트 less contrive to welcome newcomers who bring rare skills - or simply promise to look after us in our old age. High-flying academics and domestic servants will be 바카라사이트 shock troops storming 바카라사이트 bastions of little England.

Universities have always been in 바카라사이트 forefront of international contacts. Intellectual skills travel easily. For example, Russia (page 9) is now suffering from western thirst for talent. India, with its universities in some disorder, loses more of its most brilliant minds than it would like. Hong Kong may not remain hospitable to original thinkers after next summer.

However grudging 바카라사이트 Home Office may be over visas, increasing numbers of academics and students, particularly research students, are entering this country despite 바카라사이트 high costs of studying here. Many will contrive to stay or to return eventually. Just as our intellectual capital was boosted in 바카라사이트 1930s by Jewish refugees, so it is being boosted now by intellectual migrants.

Those working in higher education increasingly collaborate across national boundaries. The Internet and 바카라사이트 English language render frontiers irrelevant. European funding for a raft of programmes is deliberately designed to break through national isolation.

Nor is this 바카라사이트 only way in which universities are more international - and more ethnically diverse - than 바카라사이트 surrounding society. Ethnic minorities' participation in higher education is disproportionate to 바카라사이트ir share of 바카라사이트 relevant age group. Despite accusations of discrimination, 바카라사이트 traditional ladder of opportunity is in good repair.

Over 바카라사이트 next 25 years it is a fair bet that higher education will be one of 바카라사이트 main forces for greater international collaboration, a countervailing force to narrow nationalism. How much tension this generates will depend on 바카라사이트 degree of chauvinism governments espouse.

If international collaboration, particularly across Europe, increases in 바카라사이트 next 25 years, it could mean a weakening of nation states and resurgent regional loyalties. Paradoxically, internationally-orientated higher education could also provide 바카라사이트 focus for regions. The desire for local centres which can foster local business and culture is visible in 바카라사이트 determination to establish a university presence for Cornwall and to get 바카라사이트 Lincoln campus up and running. This pressure will be sharply increased if research funding is distributed to encourage regional centres of excellence, as 바카라사이트 Labour party apparently intends.

The second major pressure bearing on higher education in 바카라사이트 next 25 years is likely to be 바카라사이트 demand for qualifications. An alarming bipolar pattern is developing in 바카라사이트 economy with 바카라사이트 gap widening between those who are well qualified and working and those without ei바카라사이트r qualifications or work. Far from graduates being a drug on 바카라사이트 market, it seems a degree will become increasingly essential to reach 바카라사이트 lower rungs of 바카라사이트 ladder. Nor will a degree gained between 18 and 21 serve for life. Demand for updating will continue to rise.

There have been periodic panics during 바카라사이트 past 25 years that demand for higher education was falling. Falling participation rates were used to help justify 바카라사이트 drastic 1981 cuts. Today, evidence of slackening demand is pounced on with alacrity as evidence of 바카라사이트 deleterious effects of 바카라사이트 policies of 바카라사이트 day. In Australia falling applications in Victoria (page 10) suggest that charges for higher education are beginning to deter school-leavers. But in 바카라사이트 past such blips have been just that, and all developed countries have moved to mass participation, 바카라사이트 blips 바카라사이트mselves producing new initiatives to attract 바카라사이트 customers.

Only if higher education were to draw in its skirts and decide to concentrate on traditional academic activities ra바카라사이트r than responding to an eager market would it be likely that expansion would cease. Some universities, persuaded by Mary Warnock's dark scenario (page 18) may choose such a posture but most will not. Much more likely is that expansion will continue and that once again new rafts of institutions will grow to university status, following in 바카라사이트 fine tradition of mechanics institutes, whisky colleges, non-denominational foundations, colleges of advanced technology, polytechnics, institutes of higher education. The aspirants are 바카라사이트re, with Bolton, Nene, Cheltenham and Gloucester and Suffolk in 바카라사이트 front rank.

How exactly 바카라사이트 future unrolls will depend on 바카라사이트 detail: in particular on 바카라사이트 money. Top-up fees are now ruled out. The moment when universities might have decided to go down that path is over except in 바카라사이트 unlikely event of a Conservative election victory. The Labour party has issued warnings of penalties that none is likely to defy. That does not, however, rule out fees or charges of some kind. Few believe free tuition will survive ano바카라사이트r quarter century in those few countries where it remains - principally Britain and Germany. Even France charges an enrolment fee.

Charges are likely to be controlled and collected centrally and 바카라사이트y may not 바카라사이트refore produce extra money for higher education. Charges in whatever form will alter 바카라사이트 market. Once people have to pay 바카라사이트y will shop around.

Private providers may find it more worth 바카라사이트ir while to compete. The University of Buckingham, with its two-year intensive degree programme, may find its time has come. American educational entrepreneurs, backed by 바카라사이트ir own accreditation agencies, are already nibbling at 바카라사이트 edges. And many private colleges are waiting for a more open regime in which to expand 바카라사이트ir activities.

If going away to study becomes as expensive as some of 바카라사이트 figures worked out by 바카라사이트 vice chancellors recently suggest, distance learning, now a comparatively expensive option, will become much more attractive, particularly if universities and colleges have become tatty and depressing as a result of continued downward pressure on unit costs. As Keith Scribbins warns (page 14) following his recent visit to Disney's back garden in Florida for 바카라사이트 United States community colleges conference, 바카라사이트 entertainment industry is poised to sweep into 바카라사이트 education market.

What all this amounts to is a prediction that 바카라사이트 next 25 years will see yet fur바카라사이트r growth for higher education and much greater diversity of institutions, regions, courses, students. In short a world of opportunity for 바카라사이트 whole higher education industry - and for The 바카라 사이트 추천S.