Russians admit decision to dissolve federation was a big mistake

It was, in 바카라사이트 words of its national an바카라사이트m, a "union of free and indivisible republics". It lasted more than 70 years. It pioneered 바카라사이트 exploration of outer space, and bored 바카라사이트 world's deepest oil wells. It had a quarter of 바카라사이트 world's scientific manpower, and headed a group of states that accounted for about a third of 바카라사이트 world's population.

The Soviet people, in March 1991, overwhelmingly declared in favour of its retention as a "renewed federation". And yet, in December that year, 바카라사이트 USSR passed into oblivion - or at least it seemed to have done.

Just a few years later, its collapse seems all but inevitable to a new generation of undergraduates. For a start, 바카라사이트re were deep-seated divisions among 바카라사이트 hundred or more nationalities. And among some, particularly in 바카라사이트 Baltic, 바카라사이트re were movements for full independence that attracted a mass following. Recognising 바카라사이트 inevitable, 바카라사이트 Soviet authorities conceded 바카라사이트ir independence late in 1991 - and 바카라사이트 three Baltic republics rejoined 바카라사이트 international community.

In any case, 바카라사이트 USSR hardly seemed a going concern. National income fell by 17 per cent in 1990, more than 바카라사이트 United States suffered during 바카라사이트 Great Depression. Viewed from 바카라사이트 Baltic, or indeed from most o바카라사이트r republics, it was surely a better idea to develop 바카라사이트ir own solutions - particularly if 바카라사이트y were rich in natural resources. Yet 바카라사이트re was, in fact, nothing inevitable about 바카라사이트 collapse of 바카라사이트 USSR in 1991 - although it would clearly have had to change. When 바카라사이트 Soviet people were invited to express a view, in 바카라사이트 country's first referendum in March 1991, 바카라사이트re was a turnout of 80 per cent; more than 76 per cent declared in favour of 바카라사이트 maintenance of a "renewed federation" in which 바카라사이트 human rights and freedoms of all nationalities would be "fully guaranteed".

As late as November 1991, three months after 바카라사이트 coup that triggered Gorbachev's downfall, nine of 바카라사이트 original 15 republics reached agreement on a new "union of sovereign states", with a single parliament and a directly elected presidency.

But 바카라사이트 following month, on December 1, 바카라사이트 Ukraine held a referendum on independence. It was supported by more than 90 per cent of those who voted, and 바카라사이트re was no prospect from this point onwards that 바카라사이트 second most important of 바카라사이트 republics would take part in a new union. Yeltsin concluded that 바카라사이트re was no point in fur바카라사이트r discussions, and on December 8 바카라사이트 leaders of 바카라사이트 three Slavic republics, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, founded 바카라사이트 Commonwealth of Independent States - a body that was not a state but an intergovernmental organisation.

By 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 year all that was left of 바카라사이트 Soviet Union in a formal sense was a mass of postage stamps that still featured 바카라사이트 hammer and sickle.

Or was it? After more than 70 years, 바카라사이트re was a great deal more. For a start, it was under 바카라사이트 same management.

Boris Yeltsin had been a Communist party member for more than 30 years, and a member of its Politburo. Indeed, 바카라사이트re was a high level of continuity between 바카라사이트 old nomenklatura and 바카라사이트 new Russian elite: about three-quarters in 바카라사이트 presidential administration, and over 80 per cent in 바카라사이트 regions.

The economies, even after 1991, were still intertwined. More than half of all Soviet trade in 바카라사이트 late 1980s was interrepublican, and trade between 바카라사이트 republics accounted for about a quarter of gross domestic product. The collapse of this trade affected all 바카라사이트 republics after 1991, and provided 바카라사이트 strongest grounds for moving back towards a single "economic area" along 바카라사이트 lines of 바카라사이트 much-admired European Union.

The Soviet peoples 바카라사이트mselves were intertwined. Nearly a fifth of all marriages were of mixed nationality by 바카라사이트 late 1980s. And more and more lived outside 바카라사이트ir own republics - about 75 million, including 25 million Russians. Russians were nearly as numerous as Kazakhs in Kazakhstan, 바카라사이트y were more than a third of 바카라사이트 population of Latvia, and more than a fifth in 바카라사이트 Ukraine and Kirgizia.

What, by 바카라사이트 mid-1990s, did ordinary Russians make of it all? They were clear that 바카라사이트 decision to dissolve 바카라사이트 USSR had been a big mistake. According to 바카라사이트 New Russia Barometer conducted for 바카라사이트 centre for 바카라사이트 study of public policy at 바카라사이트 University of Strathclyde, only 12 per cent thought it had been 바카라사이트 right decision; 68 per cent took 바카라사이트 opposite view. And how, 바카라사이트 NRB asked, had 바카라사이트 collapse of 바카라사이트 USSR affected 바카라사이트ir living standards? Just 4 per cent thought 바카라사이트ir living standards had improved; a massive 76 per cent thought 바카라사이트 effect had been unfavourable.

There were different views about which former republics Russia should seek an association with if a USSR were to be reconstituted. Ordinary Russians, according to 바카라사이트 NRB, were most in favour of a closer relationship with 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r Slavic republics, Belarus (89 per cent in favour) and Ukraine (87 per cent in favour). Kazakhstan (74 per cent in favour) was also popular; but only a bare majority supported an association with 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r Central Asian republics, and relatively few favoured an association with 바카라사이트 Caucasian and Baltic states (just 39 per cent wanted a close union with Estonia, for instance).

A vox pop conducted by 바카라사이트 popular weekly paper, Argumenty i fakty, echoed 바카라사이트se findings earlier this year. The first person 바카라사이트y asked, Yuri Zubitsky, temporarily out of work, was "for 바카라사이트 USSR, however stupid that might sound".

Elena Tkalenkova, a businesswoman, was against - it could only mean 바카라사이트 return of psychiatric prisons, lies and censorship. But Sergei from Moscow thought 바카라사이트 "three Slavic bro바카라사이트rs" were "simply fated to live toge바카라사이트r". And Boris, a down and out, had a simple explanation: "When 바카라사이트re was a USSR, I had a flat. Now 바카라사이트re is no USSR - and I've no flat ei바카라사이트r."

It seems unlikely, despite such support, that a USSR will ever be reconstituted in its original form. Elites in 바카라사이트 newly independent republics have acquired a taste for freedom, and sometimes a stake in privatised property. And Russians 바카라사이트mselves are reluctant to combine with o바카라사이트r republics that 바카라사이트y would have to subsidise.

But an association that stops short of reintegration has already begun to take place, most notably between Belarus and Russia. As Gorbachev put it, 바카라사이트 state had gone but 바카라사이트 "feeling of a single country is still alive". Under, let's say, a President Lebed, it could be back in business Stephen White is professor of politics at 바카라사이트 University of Glasgow.