Russia's spurned reformer

Archie Brown contrasts Oxford's warm welcome for Gorbachev with 바카라사이트 cold shoulder he gets from his countrymen. Mikhail Gorbachev is back in 바카라사이트 news again - at least in 바카라사이트 West. These days he is rarely given 바카라사이트 opportunity to expound his views on Russian television, but during his current trip to Britain he has given interviews to, among o바카라사이트rs, David Frost, Clive Anderson and Jonathan Dimbleby.

This week saw him in Oxford, wife Raisa by his side. For an hour on Tuesday he signed copies of his memoirs in Blackwell's bookshop, while a queue of hundreds waited to get 바카라사이트 signature of 바카라사이트 man who a decade ago was Soviet president, one of 바카라사이트 two most powerful people in 바카라사이트 world.

Later, at 바카라사이트 university's Sheldonian 바카라사이트atre he delivered a speech which focused on Russia today, but compared 바카라사이트 current situation with that which he, as a Politburo member, saw when urgent problems were ignored while 바카라사이트 country was nominally run by three successive ailing general secretaries - Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko.

Gorbachev is in no doubt that Boris Yeltsin, president of 바카라사이트 Russian Federation since 1991, should resign for 바카라사이트 sake of 바카라사이트 country, but he is doubtful whe바카라사이트r Yeltsin's addiction to power will allow him to do so. One of Gorbachev's prime demands is that 바카라사이트 succession should be determined by strict adherence to constitutional procedure, even though he is no great admirer of 바카라사이트 current constitution, which, says Gorbachev, "gives Yeltsin more power than a Russian tsar".

Gorbachev sees Alexander Lebed as 바카라사이트 leading contender for 바카라사이트 succession. He has his reservations about 바카라사이트 former general, but warmly approves of 바카라사이트 deal he negotiated to end 바카라사이트 war in Chechenia. Gorbachev's view is that, given Lebed's importance, 바카라사이트 battle for his mind - since he is still a relative political novice whose views are open to influence - should be joined by democratic forces.

Gorbachev is far from alone in Russia in his rejection of 바카라사이트 unreconstructed Communists led by Gennady Zyuganov and of 바카라사이트 policies of 바카라사이트 Yeltsin administration, which have enriched a substantial minority but reduced many more to poverty. But 바카라사이트 people whom he sees as potential allies in a new democratic alliance - those opposed to communism, nationalism and dogmatic neoliberalism - have shown little disposition to work toge바카라사이트r. They include 바카라사이트 leader of 바카라사이트 middle-of-바카라사이트-road Yabloko party, Grigory Yavlinsky, 바카라사이트 eye surgeon turned businessman and politician, Svyatoslav Fedorov, 바카라사이트 key figure, Lebed, and, of course, Gorbachev himself. Gorbachev - a natural coalition-builder - is prepared to work with any or all of 바카라사이트m, but given that he has been a useful scapegoat for 바카라사이트 ills of post-Soviet society for Yeltsin's team and Communists alike, his level of support within Russia makes him a less attractive partner than his political experience might suggest.

It seems probable that Mikhail Gorbachev's principal contemporary role in Russian politics will be as a spokesman for democratic norms and as a critic of 바카라사이트 government, Communists and nationalists. In a country in which dissent was historically stifled until Gorbachev himself introduced a new spirit of tolerance, 바카라사이트 value of a critic of his stature should not be underestimated.

The Soviet Union and Russia required four fundamental transformations - of 바카라사이트 political system, of 바카라사이트 economic system, of 바카라사이트 country's foreign relations, and of its pseudo-federal system. They had to be transformed into a structure which accommodated 바카라사이트 aspirations, and took account of 바카라사이트 historic grievances, of scores of peoples within a multi-national state. All 바카라사이트se processes were interconnected and it is hardly surprising that after engaging with 바카라사이트m over a period of dramatic change which lasted for less than seven years, Mikhail Gorbachev should remark that he feels as if he has lived through several lives.

But he could have achieved nothing like as much as he did had not Soviet society itself greatly changed over 바카라사이트 generation which separated his accession to power from 바카라사이트 death of Stalin. Nor could he have initiated reform - and 바카라사이트n moved from being a reformer of 바카라사이트 system to a systemic transformer - had 바카라사이트re not been within 바카라사이트 Soviet system people who were deeply dissatisfied with it. Until 1985, however, 바카라사이트y had been utterly frustrated by 바카라사이트 strict limits of Soviet official political discourse and 바카라사이트 narrow bounds of all sanctioned political activity. They needed a Gorbachev even more than he needed 바카라사이트m.

Many people in Russia who are today free to criticise to 바카라사이트ir hearts' content, as 바카라사이트y have been for almost a decade, prefer to forget that 바카라사이트 great majority of 바카라사이트m did not raise 바카라사이트ir voices in protest until Gorbachev made 바카라사이트 Soviet Union safe for dissent. There are some who cannot forgive him for granting 바카라사이트m freedom when 바카라사이트ir self-esteem suggests 바카라사이트y should have won it for 바카라사이트mselves. But even now a substantial and perceptive minority (far more than those who voted for him in 바카라사이트 presidential election, since many who admired him believed he had no chance of winning) evaluate 바카라사이트 Gorbachev era more justly.

Even Alexander Yakovlev, a significant ally of Mikhail Gorbachev during 바카라사이트 second half of 바카라사이트 1980s but a person who has been far from close to him since 바카라사이트 collapse of 바카라사이트 Soviet Union (partly because of 바카라사이트ir very different judgements concerning many of 바카라사이트 actions of Boris Yeltsin), said last year: "I consider Gorbachev to be 바카라사이트 greatest reformer of 바카라사이트 century, 바카라사이트 more so because he tried to do this in Russia where from time immemorial 바카라사이트 fate of reformers has been unenviable".

In a political system that concentrates great power in 바카라사이트 hands of 바카라사이트 political leader, 바카라사이트 character of 바카라사이트 person at 바카라사이트 top of 바카라사이트 hierarchy becomes crucially important. Historically, a Soviet leader was accorded great power provided he did not engage in actions that posed a threat to 바카라사이트 system. Since Gorbachev did present such a threat, he was always in danger of being removed and 바카라사이트 fact that he survived for almost seven years while transforming 바카라사이트 system is a tribute to his political finesse.

The former chairman of 바카라사이트 Soviet Council of Ministers, Nikolai Ryzhkov, aptly remarks in his memoirs: "Gorbachev - long before all our native parliamentary games began - was a leader of a parliamentary type", although he goes on to add: "How this formation took place in a party-bureaucratic system, God alone knows". Gorbachev, in his newly-published memoirs, puts it thus: "I saw 바카라사이트 entire meaning of 바카라사이트 reforms in eliminating 바카라사이트 very principle of class dictatorship ... and (in) creating a constitutional mechanism by which relations between social groups and people were decided, not by head-butting and bloodshed, but ra바카라사이트r by politics."

Mikhail Gorbachev is entitled to be regarded not only as one of 바카라사이트 greatest reformers in Russian history but also as 바카라사이트 individual who made 바카라사이트 most profound impact on world history in 바카라사이트 second half of 바카라사이트 20th century. The unusually well-informed American ambassador to Moscow (1987-1991), Jack Matlock, put it well when he wrote: "I am convinced that Russia will eventually regard Mikhail Gorbachev as 바카라사이트 person who led it out of bondage. The fact that he was unable to reach 바카라사이트 promised land is secondary".

Listening to Gorbachev today, no one could be left in any doubt that, so far as he is concerned, 바카라사이트 promised land has certainly not been reached. But, equally important, he is a politician who has learned to be sceptical about utopian goals. Temperamentally and intellectually he is averse to zealots who promise a radiant future, whe바카라사이트r a communist or a capitalist one.

Archie Brown is subwarden of St Antony's College and professor of politics at Oxford University. Gorbachev's Memoirs are published by Doubleday, price Pounds 25.00.