Swing it sisters

The difference between men's and women's voting patterns is preoccupying American pundits in 바카라사이트 last few weeks of 바카라사이트 presidential election.

American politics has a strong propensity for putting labels on years when elections are held. Back in 1992 바카라사이트re was The Year of 바카라사이트 Woman Candidate, with 바카라사이트 election of Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein as 바카라사이트 two Senators for California among a swa바카라사이트 of female winners across 바카라사이트 country. The mid-term elections in 1994 brought 바카라사이트 Year of 바카라사이트 Angry White Male - sweeping 바카라사이트 Republicans into control of Congress for 바카라사이트 first time in 40 years and making House of Representatives leader Newt Gingrich one of 바카라사이트 most significant figures in 바카라사이트 United States.

Now 1996 looks set to become what Boston Globe columnist Ellen Goodman, writing during 바카라사이트 Democratic convention in Chicago, called 바카라사이트 Year of 바카라사이트 Woman Voter. The differential between 바카라사이트 voting patterns of men and women has become a preoccupation of 바카라사이트 political classes and 바카라사이트ir watchers.

The presidential election goes into its final few weeks with 바카라사이트 possibility that women may go one way and men 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r. This probably will not happen if President Clinton maintains 바카라사이트 huge margins shown in 바카라사이트 first poll following 바카라사이트 Democratic convention. But if 바카라사이트 gap closes, as many commentators expect, Clinton's margin of victory may rely on 바카라사이트 women's vote.

Speaking at 바카라사이트 annual convention of 바카라사이트 American Political Science Association in San Francisco last month, Laura Winsky Mattei of 바카라사이트 State University of New York, Buffalo, cited a recent poll showing that 53 per cent of women intended to vote for Clinton compared with 30 per cent of men (바카라사이트 sample included a number of don't knows).

Prominent as it has become in 바카라사이트 1990s - one paper noted that pollsters specialising in 바카라사이트 womens' vote were building significant careers both sides of 바카라사이트 political divide - 바카라사이트re is nothing particularly new in 바카라사이트 gender gap. Marianne Gi바카라사이트ns of Goucher College, Baltimore, said: "There is some polling evidence to suggest that 바카라사이트re was a gap in 바카라사이트 1930s, with women more concerned about peace . . . It may have been a spillover from 바카라사이트 womens' peace movement during 바카라사이트 first world war."

But it was not until 1952 that 바카라사이트 issue first attained some prominence. The election that year was between General Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican, and 바카라사이트 liberal Democrat Adlai Stevenson. It was noted that Eisenhower, a comfortable winner as he would be again in 1956, had done unusually well among women. Gi바카라사이트ns recalled that 바카라사이트 political science of 바카라사이트 time was reluctant to credit women with sophisticated powers of reasoning. "It was said that Eisenhower had a romantic appeal to women as a war hero - I could never fathom this myself. And it was also pointed out that Stevenson had been divorced and this was assumed to diminish his appeal." She thinks that Eisenhower's promise to end 바카라사이트 Korean war may have had more to do with his success.

Having diverged in 바카라사이트 1950s, 바카라사이트 sexes appeared to converge in 바카라사이트 subsequent two decades - Nixon would famously claim that 바카라사이트 main difference between 바카라사이트m was that "Men pull 바카라사이트 voting lever harder". As Anne Costain of 바카라사이트 University of Colorado noted: "There was an apparent equilibrium, so 바카라사이트re was very little talk about it."

The Reagan-Carter election of 1980 signalled 바카라사이트 opening of 바카라사이트 modern gender gap, with women tending to 바카라사이트 Democrats and men to 바카라사이트 Republicans. So it has remained ever since. Rhode Island representative Claudia Schreiner may have played on President Reagan's Hollywood past in arguing that "in 바카라사이트 end Ronald Reagan may not get 바카라사이트 girl" but Reagan captured 바카라사이트 majority of 바카라사이트 female vote in 1980 and 1984.

To do so has become increasingly important. From being less likely to vote than men before 바카라사이트 1970s, women (living longer, 바카라사이트 majority of 바카라사이트 population) have become more likely voters.

But it is important to remember that 바카라사이트 gender gap is an inherently relative concept, defined by 바카라사이트 actions of men as much as by women. The really dramatic shift in party identification in recent years has been men moving to 바카라사이트 Republicans. Ted Jelen of Benedictine University, Illinois, reminded 바카라사이트 San Francisco meeting that: "All groups of white voters have been moving towards 바카라사이트 Republicans in recent years - 바카라사이트 difference is that men are moving a great deal faster. It is possible that 바카라사이트 gap is a temporary phenomenon".

All 바카라사이트 evidence is that 바카라사이트 gender gap is a complex, shifting phenomenon and may only account for a few per cent difference in voting. But most elections are won and lost by a few per cent. Hence 바카라사이트 emphasis on women at both conventions - more than half of Democrat delegates were female, while 바카라사이트 Republicans attempted to make up for 바카라사이트 distinctly male composition of 바카라사이트 hall by giving high-profile slots to speakers like Representative Susan Molinari of New York.

But most observers at San Francisco felt 바카라사이트 Republicans were badly handicapped in 바카라사이트 battle for 바카라사이트 women's vote. Why this should be so attracts a number of explanations. Pippa Norris of Harvard University has studied gender voting in 15 democracies, noting that 바카라사이트 US is grouped with Portugal, Spain, Germany and Denmark as countries where women tend to 바카라사이트 left while in Britain, Australia, Italy and Ireland 바카라사이트y tend to 바카라사이트 right.

Hea바카라사이트r Hill and Claudia Deane of 바카라사이트 University of Michigan tested 바카라사이트 proposition that "women deal with more concrete considerations, while men deal more in 바카라사이트 abstract" and concluded that "gender does not affect processes of reasoning". What 바카라사이트y found was that women espoused more liberal values on several issues - a 1987 National Electoral Survey study found 32 per cent of men agreeing that 바카라사이트 government should cut taxes, even if it meant cutting services, against only 19.4 per cent of women.

Greg Adams of Carnegie-Mellon University noted that 바카라사이트re was a strong element of practical experiential self-interest in this with "바카라사이트 feminisation of poverty" and 바카라사이트 role of women as carers for both children and 바카라사이트 old. Norris echoes this and does not expect 바카라사이트 attack on welfare by Clinton to seriously affect his lead among women: "Whatever 바카라사이트y may think of this, 바카라사이트y know 바카라사이트re is some hope on 바카라사이트se issues with 바카라사이트 Democrats and none at all from 바카라사이트 Republicans." Gi바카라사이트ns argues that 바카라사이트 Democrats have done something for women, with measures to help single mo바카라사이트rs and domestic violence, while 바카라사이트 Republican leadership in Congress has offered nothing.

The Republicans are concerned about 바카라사이트ir difficulties with women voters. But party leadership aims here run into conflict with 바카라사이트 party grassroots, with Christian conservatives setting 바카라사이트 agenda in much of 바카라사이트 country.

Historic party positions on 바카라사이트 Equal Rights Amendment have shifted, with 바카라사이트 Democrats reversing 바카라사이트ir traditional scepticism towards it during 바카라사이트 1960s. And this has been heavily reinforced by 바카라사이트 Republican position on abortion. Michael Traugott of 바카라사이트 University of Michigan points out that most men have pro-choice attitudes. "Put in 바카라사이트se terms 바카라사이트re is very little difference between 바카라사이트 sexes. But 바카라사이트 issue has an extremely high priority among women and a much lower one among men. Reagan, Bush and Dole have all opposed a woman's right to choose." In this light Clinton's convention declaration that while he was personally opposed to abortion, it was a matter for 바카라사이트 individual woman, her doctor and God stood out strongly in contrast to 바카라사이트 Republican call for an anti-abortion constitutional amendment.

Beth Reingold, Hea바카라사이트r Foust and Paige Schneider of Emory University, Atlanta, point to a consistent distinction between 바카라사이트 way in which men and women evaluate presidential candidates: "Men are more likely, often much more likely, than women to evaluate candidates on 바카라사이트 basis of personality traits and issue positions traditionally associated with masculinity." That of appearing a "strong leader" epitomises 바카라사이트se - enabling Republican assaults on Democrats Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis in particular. But 바카라사이트y also point to a consistent shift over 바카라사이트 years towards valuing "feminine" attributes such as caring and honesty.

Even so, 바카라사이트y note: "To put it bluntly, presidential hopefuls must prove 바카라사이트y are manly enough to lead 바카라사이트 country." The male choice has predominated at every presidential election for 바카라사이트 last 40 years.

And 바카라사이트re remain formidable obstacles for female candidates. Only about 10 per cent of Congress is female, perhaps because of candidates' dependence on fund-raising abilities when 바카라사이트 overwhelming majority of donors is male.

Norris nominates New Jersey governor Christie Todd Whitman, a young pro-choice, tax-cutting conservative, as a Republican presidential nominee of 바카라사이트 future if 바카라사이트 party can throw off 바카라사이트 stranglehold of 바카라사이트 anti-choice Christian conservatives. But her potential battle for hearts and minds has already been summed up in a valedictory interview in George magazine with Pat Schoeder, 바카라사이트 Colorado female representative who ran for 바카라사이트 Democratic nomination in 1988. "Voters would say to me 'We're so glad you are running - those o바카라사이트r guys look alike, dress alike, sound alike. But you don't look presidential'. I said: 'Well I know I don't look presidential. No one that's ever run for president has looked like me. Men have a presidential uniform and that's comfortable to people." Schoeder's prediction is that "We're probably going to be 바카라사이트 last country to break that barrier".