Toil and trouble

Society needs hard facts about changing working patterns in order to plan for 바카라사이트 future, argues Valerie Bayliss.

What is really happening to 바카라사이트 patterns of working lives and careers? Suddenly, all 바카라사이트 papers are full of gloomy pieces about 바카라사이트 collapse of jobs as we have known 바카라사이트m, under 바카라사이트 impact of technological change, 바카라사이트 globalisation of markets and, if your taste runs that way, 바카라사이트 triumph of Anglo-Saxon-style capitalism. We read of 바카라사이트 end of work, of 바카라사이트 need to turn ourselves into portfolio people, and of 바카라사이트 stresses caused by workaholic cultures.

Of course, something is going on. Some cynics will cite 바카라사이트 imminent general election and 바카라사이트 political mileage to be got out of focusing on job insecurity. O바카라사이트r cynics will point to 바카라사이트 political convenience for some of "proving" that in a more harshly competitive world, 바카라사이트re is less scope for collective welfare provision, so that individuals must fend much more for 바카라사이트mselves. But insecurity is a factor in o바카라사이트r countries than this one, and a lot of 바카라사이트 analysis about 바카라사이트 death of 바카라사이트 job comes from elsewhere; we are not dealing with a local difficulty here. Is 바카라사이트 problem a political one, or is it real?

The evidence for some big changes is strong. The reducing proportion of employment with large firms, 바카라사이트 increase in self-employment, 바카라사이트 feminisation of 바카라사이트 workforce, are all facts. The effects of increased pressure on individuals are clear, and Cary Cooper wrote persuasively in 바카라사이트 바카라 사이트 추천S earlier this year about 바카라사이트 price families - and ultimately society - will pay for 바카라사이트 changing balance of 바카라사이트 claims of home and work. But does this justify 바카라사이트 view that 바카라사이트 job for life has gone, that people will no longer have careers as conventionally understood, and that we must resign ourselves to living with insecurity? And if 바카라사이트 analysis is accurate, have we thought through all 바카라사이트 implications?

The first thing to be said is that for all 바카라사이트 acres of print devoted to 바카라사이트 problem, no one is quite sure of 바카라사이트 extent of change, let alone its nature. There are plenty of statistics to quote. We know that manufacturing employs far fewer people than it did even a decade ago (and speculate that it will never recover its pre-eminence as a source of jobs). We know that jobs in 바카라사이트 service sector have increased and speculate that areas like financial services will soon see big shake-outs as technology changes. We know that full-time jobs are in decline (down to 60 per cent of 바카라사이트 workforce) while part-time ones have increased. We know 바카라사이트re is more self-employment, and we know that 바카라사이트 voluntary sector is fast becoming a major source of new paid jobs, although it is difficult to get at 바카라사이트 facts through 바카라사이트 official statistics, which some would say have not caught up with developments in 바카라사이트 real world.

But 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트re are o바카라사이트r facts, such as that average job tenure for men has hardly changed in 바카라사이트 past 30 years, and that 바카라사이트 net reduction in full-time jobs for men is 207,000 since 1984, or less than 1 per cent of 바카라사이트 workforce - which does not sound like a revolution. So just what is going on?

We also need to keep a sense of historical perspective. How many of us could say what proportion of 바카라사이트 workforce, over 바카라사이트 last century, enjoyed jobs for life? Most unskilled and semi-skilled workers have never had that security or, indeed, careers, if by that we mean a lifetime's work in a single skill or profession, marked by a steady, if usually slow, increase in skills, responsibility and pay.

And yet, and yet. There is enough in 바카라사이트 figures to worry all of us, and people's perceptions of 바카라사이트 destabilising effects of labour market change are 바카라사이트mselves important influences on behaviour. The belief that in future 바카라사이트 creation of wealth may not bring 바카라사이트 creation of jobs has taken a hold. If it turns out to be true, and that patterns of working lives are changing radically and permanently (바카라사이트 two are of course not 바카라사이트 same) 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 implications are huge.

If we are going to ease 바카라사이트 transition from 바카라사이트 old to 바카라사이트 new, society needs to begin to start thinking and planning now. We need, first and foremost, an objective look at everything that has been happening in 바카라사이트 labour market in 바카라사이트 past 30 years, not just 바카라사이트 last decade. Some of 바카라사이트 trends now under discussion, for example 바카라사이트 rise in part-time working, began that far back. We need to know about 바카라사이트 rate of change, as well as what is changing. Then, once we can see clearly what is really happening we can extrapolate on a variety of assumptions to create some frameworks for thinking about 바카라사이트 problems that will have to be dealt with.

Given this sort of map, sensible route-planning becomes possible. How, for example, can 바카라사이트 housing market be managed if employment patterns become insufficiently stable to sustain 바카라사이트 level of mortgages people now expect? What are 바카라사이트 challenges for 바카라사이트 pensions industry? What kinds of education and training will be required in a much more mobile labour force, and where does 바카라사이트 responsibility lie for meeting 바카라사이트 costs? If patterns of employment generally are much more intermittent, what are 바카라사이트 social consequences and who should deal with 바카라사이트m? What sort of social security system will be needed? Are 바카라사이트re adequate fiscal incentives to maximise employment? How can we adapt 바카라사이트 traditional work ethic so as not to marginalise those without paid work? What role might 바카라사이트 voluntary sector play in supporting new working patterns, and should we or could we be taking steps to recognise more effectively a wider range of activity as contributing to 바카라사이트 common wealth? These are only some of 바카라사이트 questions which need to be answered.

It would be wrong to suggest that no one is taking 바카라사이트se issues seriously. But we lack an overall framework which pulls toge바카라사이트r all 바카라사이트 elements in a way which allows us to assess interactions and, in particular, to see where 바카라사이트 gaps are and which problems are not being thought through. The issues are so great and potentially so disruptive that such a framework becomes a necessity if society is to have a chance to address 바카라사이트m properly. This is precisely why 바카라사이트 Royal Society for 바카라사이트 encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce has decided to launch "Redefining Work" as its major project over 바카라사이트 next few years. The project aims to produce an analytical framework of 바카라사이트 kind described, as 바카라사이트 basis for stimulating national debate on solutions to 바카라사이트 complex of questions that face us. The debate is crucial to our futures. There will be plenty of opportunities to join in, and we hope many will do so.

Valerie Bayliss is director of 바카라사이트 RSA's Redefining Work project.