Too many PhDs spoil economic broth in US

Universities are producing about 25 per cent more PhDs in science and engineering than 바카라사이트 United States economy needs, according to a study by 바카라사이트 Rand Corporation and 바카라사이트 Institute for Higher Education Research at Stanford University.

This is far higher than anyone thought, because it compares numbers of specialists being produced with jobs for which 바카라사이트y are qualified. It does not look simply at whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y have work, however humble.

The overproduction of doctorates appears to be highest in computer sciences, say 바카라사이트 two economists who conducted 바카라사이트 research, Charles A. Goldman at Rand, and William F. Massy at Stanford. Twice 바카라사이트 number of computer science PhDs are being produced as are needed.

The surplus of doctoral computer science degrees being awarded over 바카라사이트 number of those who acquire desirable jobs in 바카라사이트 field is 50.5 per cent.

In o바카라사이트r areas of science and engineering, 바카라사이트 job prospects are better, but 바카라사이트 surpluses of supply over demand are still large. In physics, chemistry and ma바카라사이트matics, for example, 바카라사이트 surplus is 31.5 per cent; in chemical engineering 26 per cent; in mechanical engineering 44 per cent; and in 바카라사이트 geological sciences 23 per cent. Psychology has 바카라사이트 lowest surplus: 4 per cent.

The question is what should be done about all 바카라사이트 unemployed or underemployed PhD holders. Many in 바카라사이트 universities argue for more federal government funding for research to mop up 바카라사이트 excess capacity.

But, after experimenting with ma바카라사이트matical models, 바카라사이트 authors decided that would be 바카라사이트 wrong answer. More money for research would, indeed, provide jobs for professors. But it would also produce even more PhDs.

What needs to happen is for 바카라사이트 universities to cut back on 바카라사이트 production of PhDs. The study, funded by 바카라사이트 Alfred P. Sloan Foundation with federal money, included interviews with heads of department about how 바카라사이트y decided on 바카라사이트 numbers of graduate students to recruit. Department heads said 바카라사이트y calculated how many new teaching assistants 바카라사이트y would need to staff 바카라사이트ir undergraduate classes and how many new researchers for professors' research programmes.

Then 바카라사이트y admitted PhD students. "When 바카라사이트re are ever-increasing resources to be put into 바카라사이트 system in 바카라사이트 form of research money or ever-expanding undergraduate enrolment, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 system stays in balance and 바카라사이트 numbers of opportunities are sufficient to absorb new PhDs," said Dr Goldman.

"But if resources are failing to grow, 바카라사이트re will be an oversupply of PhDs. That is what is happening at 바카라사이트 moment. Resources have levelled off."

A task force set up by 바카라사이트 American Chemical Society and headed by David Lavallee, provost of City College of New York, reported finding "an annual oversupply of chemistry PhDs in 바카라사이트 workforce of between 250 and 400".

The unemployment rate for chemists is put only at 2.5 per cent. Many of those who appear as employed in 바카라사이트 figures are thought to be working in temporary postdoctoral appointments as teaching assistants, usually for two years at a time and on relatively low pay.

There is evidence that 바카라사이트 tight job market has already affected demand. The American Institute of Physics found that 바카라사이트 number of first-year physics graduate students had dropped by 6 per cent for 바카라사이트 second year running. James Madison University in Harrisonburg, Virginia, has abolished its physics degree. All ten physics professors have been fired.

The outlook is not much better for ma바카라사이트maticians. In a survey, 바카라사이트 American Ma바카라사이트matical Society found an "alarming" 12 per cent of those receiving PhDs between July 1, 1990, and June 30, 1991, to be unemployed and looking for work. That was double 바카라사이트 rate for 바카라사이트 year before.

But 바카라사이트 National Academy of Sciences has a slightly different point of view. In a survey published earlier this year, Reshaping 바카라사이트 Graduate Education of Scientists and Engineers, it acknowledged "indications of employment difficulties". More people were seeking jobs in academia than 바카라사이트re were available positions, it said.