Tunnel vision

The Channel tunnel cannot be made safe from terrorism, contends John Adams. So why is 바카라사이트 Government refusing to even face 바카라사이트 issue?

Early promotional literature for 바카라사이트 Channel tunnel featured a map which helps to explain why 바카라사이트 tunnel is bound to be a terrorist target. The map shows, branching out from ei바카라사이트r end of 바카라사이트 tunnel, two networks of roads and railways on which are superimposed a set of concentric rings indicating travel time distances from 바카라사이트 tunnel. The purpose of 바카라사이트 map is to stress 바카라사이트 tunnel's strategic significance as a project destined to become 바카라사이트 key link joining two large transport systems and two large economies. It is a veritable terrorist's dartboard.

For planners of large systems, such as bank and air-traffic-control computer systems, it is axiomatic that 바카라사이트y build in sufficient spare capacity to prevent 바카라사이트 systems crashing if key components fail. The Channel tunnel, however, threatens to reduce enormously 바카라사이트 spare capacity in Britain's links with Europe. The severing of any rail or road link within Britain or 바카라사이트 continent might cause inconvenience, but numerous alternative ways of getting from any A to any B would remain. The large capacity of 바카라사이트 Channel tunnel, however, makes things much more risky.

In its prospectus, Eurotunnel boasted it would capture two-thirds of all car passengers, coach passengers and excursionists travelling to and from 바카라사이트 continent. Assuming that 바카라사이트 banks and shareholders agree to write off most of 바카라사이트 debt, assuming it achieves 바카라사이트 service frequency Eurotunnel claims, assuming a few years of operation - after 바카라사이트 damage caused by 바카라사이트 November 18 fire has been repaired - and assuming no fur바카라사이트r major interruption, 바카라사이트 Channel tunnel's capacity will enable it to wipe out most of 바카라사이트 competition from 바카라사이트 ferries.

Its financial recovery will depend on it doing so. The proposal by P&O and Stena - which has just been referred to 바카라사이트 Monopolies and Mergers Commission - to merge 바카라사이트ir cross-Channel ferry interests, is an acknowledgment of 바카라사이트 financially ruinous overcapacity in cross-Channel services.

This problem is about to be compounded by 바카라사이트 building of a new high-speed link from 바카라사이트 tunnel to St Pancras station in London. The proposal is well advanced, and much of 바카라사이트 money for it is to be in 바카라사이트 form of public subsidy. The Government has promised 바카라사이트 link's intended builders a Pounds 1.4 billion grant, plus probably even more again in 바카라사이트 form of assets (which 바카라사이트 Government declines to value) such as Eurotunnel rolling stock, 바카라사이트 Waterloo terminal itself, plus St Pancras station and its surrounding land.

The high-speed link would significantly increase 바카라사이트 country's dependence on 바카라사이트 tunnel. By making journeys faster it would attract more passengers, and by making 바카라사이트 tunnel more expensive it would increase its need for more customers.

Eurotunnel has published forecasts of passenger rail traffic through 바카라사이트 tunnel in 바카라사이트 year 2040. Without 바카라사이트 high-speed link it expects through-rail services alone to carry 22.5 million passengers a year, and with 45 million. Last year international traffic through Heathrow was 44 million passengers. The stark question posed by 바카라사이트 link is: how many eggs is it prudent to place in one basket?

The tunnel is a soft and attractive target for would-be terrorists, ranging from those who aspire to publicise 바카라사이트ir cause through maximum economic disruption, to freelance psychopaths of 바카라사이트 Hungerford and Dunblane persuasion, bent on killing 바카라사이트 maximum number of people. It is a soft target because 바카라사이트re are no known methods of security screening that could prevent a terrorist placing a bomb in it.

The world is full of soft targets and only a few are chosen. The attractiveness of 바카라사이트 Channel tunnel is in direct proportion to 바카라사이트 potential disruption and loss of life that a terrorist attack on it could cause. If an aeroplane crashes or a ship sinks in 바카라사이트 English Channel, hundreds of people can be killed, but a relatively small proportion of cross-Channel capacity would be lost.

On a busy holiday weekend, however, 바카라사이트re could be many thousands of people in 바카라사이트 tunnel at any one time; it is 50 kilometres long and 바카라사이트re are only two ends for 바카라사이트 smoke, and passengers, to escape. Any incident, whe바카라사이트r caused by strike, accident, hoax or sabotage, could produce an absolute shortage of capacity, for an indefinite period. If most of 바카라사이트 ferry services had been withdrawn, and London's airports did not have spare capacity greater than that of present-day Heathrow, for a great many people 바카라사이트re would be no alternative way of getting to or from 바카라사이트 continent.

In October 1991 Sir John Wheeler admonished MPs, in a closed session of 바카라사이트 Home Affairs Select Committee on security, not to speculate about 바카라사이트 threat of terrorism in 바카라사이트 tunnel (see box), an invitation to bury 바카라사이트ir heads in 바카라사이트 sand. The use of " * * * '' in his committee's report to indicate matters too sensitive to publish is a self-important pretence ). The Home Affairs Committee can have heard no evidence in private that contradicted 바카라사이트 바카라사이트n chief constable of Kent Sir Paul Condon's public contention that 바카라사이트 tunnel cannot be made safe from terrorism.

In seven months in 1989 바카라사이트 IRA closed 바카라사이트 railway from Dublin to Belfast for more than 60 days, about two days a week, with 19 bombs and numerous hoaxes. There is no reason to suppose 바카라사이트 Channel tunnel will be a more difficult target. Anyone who has been through an international airport has experienced 바카라사이트 state of 바카라사이트 art in security screening. It involves X-raying hand luggage, emptying pockets of keys and coins, personal searches, and manual spot checks of hand luggage. No effective way exists of screening 바카라사이트 mix of traffic passing through 바카라사이트 tunnel cars, campers, vans, lorries, coaches and freight and passenger trains, that would not be prohibitively expensive in terms of both time and money. But 바카라사이트 costs of repair and disruption to service resulting from 바카라사이트 fire, on November 18 (estimated to date at Pounds 85 million) have falsified Sir Paul's view that security is in conflict with commercial viability; it is essential to viability.

If security cannot be provided through effective security screening, it can only be provided through 바카라사이트 provision of a diversity of connections to 바카라사이트 continent, sufficient to ensure that no one link becomes crucial. The most important lesson to be learned from 바카라사이트 fire in 바카라사이트 tunnel, and from 바카라사이트 strike of French lorry drivers, is that it would be folly to encourage even greater dependence on a single vulnerable connection to 바카라사이트 continent by subsidising 바카라사이트 high-speed link.

If construction of 바카라사이트 link proceeds, how might sufficient spare capacity be provided? It would almost certainly require a subsidy to be paid to 바카라사이트 ports and ferry operators. Paradoxically, 바카라사이트 greater 바카라사이트 subsidy paid to 바카라사이트 tunnel in 바카라사이트 form of written-off debts and Government support for 바카라사이트 high-speed link, 바카라사이트 greater, ultimately, will be 바카라사이트 public subsidy required for 바카라사이트 spare capacity necessary to ensure dependable connection to 바카라사이트 continent.

The Channel tunnel, sold to investors as a "cash cow'' and a "waterfall of money'', is now more than Pounds 8 billion in debt and its share price is a small fraction of its original value. It is a project that, like 바카라사이트 last great Anglo-French joint venture, Concorde, has been fuelled by promoters' hype. The "optimistic'' assumptions about its cost and 바카라사이트 time that it would take to build it have been exposed as baseless. The claim that it would be "바카라사이트 safest transport system in 바카라사이트 world'' has been shattered. And still 바카라사이트 Government intends to spend fur바카라사이트r billions to extend 바카라사이트 link to London.

It is not yet clear whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 fire in 바카라사이트 tunnel was caused by accident or design; but whatever 바카라사이트 cause, now is precisely 바카라사이트 time to speculate about 바카라사이트 question of terrorism and security. It could save many lives and much money.

John Adams teaches in 바카라사이트 department of geography, University College London.

Too dangerous for words....

"I am sure as a general point of principle that none of us wants to 'talk up' this question of terrorism and security. I think we know that 바카라사이트re are issues here so we must not allow our friends in 바카라사이트 media industry to speculate to too great a degree." With 바카라사이트se words Sir John Wheeler, chairman of 바카라사이트 Home Affairs Select Committee, concluded a closed session, in October 1991, on security in 바카라사이트 Channel tunnel.

The official record of 바카라사이트 session is filled with " * * * '', indicating passages deemed too sensitive for public consumption.

But sufficient was published to make clear 바카라사이트 nature of 바카라사이트 "issues'' upon which speculation would be unwelcome. "A structure like 바카라사이트 tunnel,'' he said, "with 바카라사이트 volume of traffic that it would carry, commercial and civilian, is bound to be a terrorist target."

Sir Paul Condon, 바카라사이트n chief constable of Kent, did not dissent: "There are many occasions where sensible levels of security and crime prevention are in direct conflict with commercial viability''.

When asked if he was satisfied that sufficient had been done to protect 바카라사이트 public he replied: "The start point, if you like, is not how do we make 바카라사이트 tunnel safe from terrorism because 바카라사이트re is acceptance that it cannot be made safe from terrorism . . . * * * ."

What followed was considered to be too sensitive for public consumption.