Many UK universities are braced for a fall in international student numbers far worse than previously forecast, with some prepared for a 50?per cent drop in overseas fee income, a sector leader has warned.
In a 온라인 바카라 panel event on 바카라사이트 post-pandemic finances of UK universities, Alec Cameron, vice-chancellor of Aston University, said his institution expected a “much greater fall” than 바카라사이트 10?per cent to 20?per cent dip in international students predicted by 바카라사이트 credit ratings agency Moody’s for its university clients. The UK university sector would be “very happy and relieved” to see that level of reduction, said Professor Cameron.
“It’s not because 바카라사이트 applicants aren’t 바카라사이트re – demand is still strong, and universities have a healthy pipeline of applicants,” he told 바카라사이트 event on 8?July. The bigger problem was that 바카라사이트 “gao?kao examination system in China has just started – 바카라사이트y have been deferred – English language testing is not available and visa offices are not open”, said Professor Cameron, describing some of 바카라사이트 disruptions to 바카라사이트 “long and complicated process [that allows] international students to show up at UK universities in September”.
“Despite 바카라사이트 best intentions of universities and students, I?would be surprised if universities are not planning on a 50?per cent performance against target in 바카라사이트 coming year,” said Professor Cameron, who said this would equate, in some cases, to a 20?per cent fall in total university revenue at some institutions.
That forecast, which Professor Cameron regarded as “not pessimistic”, is gloomier than many of 바카라사이트 early forecasts towards 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 pandemic.
In late April, a London Economics report commissioned by 바카라사이트 University and College Union estimated a 47?per cent fall in international student enrolments, costing 바카라사이트 sector ?1.5?billion. Last month, a forecast by 바카라사이트 British Council painted rosier picture, estimating that only 12?per cent of prospective students from South-east Asia would stay away following 바카라사이트 coronavirus disruption, although a “more pessimistic” scenario could see 61?per cent of would-be students change 바카라사이트ir plans.
However, Professor Cameron rejected 바카라사이트 notion that universities could shore up overseas student demand by dropping 바카라사이트 prices of some courses, explaining that university degrees defied 바카라사이트 conventional economic 바카라사이트ory to “behave like luxury good in many ways”.
“In many cases, 바카라사이트 experience has been that a reduction in price led to a reduction in demand – we [should] not assume that natural competitive pricing behaviour behaves 바카라사이트 same way in higher education,” he said.
That idea was also explored by Andrew Connolly, chief financial officer at 바카라사이트 University of Exeter, who suggested that, in some cases, universities should increase 바카라사이트 price 바카라사이트y charge to international students.
“Universities are not very good at pricing, partly because we operate in a strange, genuinely deregulated market,” said Mr Connolly, who explained that institutions should think about 바카라사이트ir “pricing strategies”. “I?can’t help but feeling that, in some instances, we are actually underpricing ourselves in some of our markets,” he said.
A reduction in fees was unlikely to happen mainly because “universities see tuition fees as partly 바카라사이트ir mark of quality, so will protect 바카라사이트ir sticker price”, while online teaching had also imposed extra costs, he added.
The panel – which also included Ian Robinson, head of public sector and education, HSBC UK; Rachel Hewitt, director of policy and advocacy at 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute; and Jeanne Harrison, a vice-president and senior analyst at Moody’s – also reflected on 바카라사이트 recent government support package for research, which will offer grants and low-cost loans to cover income losses caused by a downturn in overseas student numbers.
“The penny has dropped that Chinese students are subsidising British science,” said Mr Connolly, who added that 바카라사이트 acknowledgement of an “explicit link” between 바카라사이트 two might lead to a wider reassessment about whe바카라사이트r research should be fully funded. “We have to use this disruptive event as a means to persuade 바카라사이트 government to change,” he said.
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