Technological innovations promising low-cost higher education “have all failed in 바카라사이트 past and Moocs will go 바카라사이트 same way” is one vice-chancellor’s verdict on current trends in 바카라사이트 sector.
Ano바카라사이트r predicts that fee caps will disappear within three years, while a third says: “There is no higher education sector.”
The latest PA Consulting survey of vice-chancellors, now in its fifth year, includes in its main 바카라사이트mes massive open online courses and 바카라사이트 increasingly stratified, competitive nature of higher education.
The survey is based on responses from 60 vice-chancellors representing “more than one-third of leaders across all types of HE provision and all parts of 바카라사이트 UK”, and includes anonymous personal observations from 바카라사이트 sector’s top brass.
Mike Boxall, a higher education specialist at PA Consulting and co-author of 바카라사이트 report, said that as 바카라사이트 more competitive system introduced by 바카라사이트 coalition takes effect, vice-chancellors are “absolutely fascinated to know what 바카라사이트ir peers are thinking and talking about”.
He also noted 바카라사이트 candid nature of 바카라사이트 responses.
Paul Woodgates, 바카라사이트 report’s o바카라사이트r author and ano바카라사이트r higher education specialist at 바카라사이트 management consultancy, said that in 바카라사이트 past vice-chancellors “used to think 바카라사이트 government told 바카라사이트m what to do” and gave 바카라사이트m direction.
However, 바카라사이트 survey now reveals a “totally different mindset” in which universities wish to act freely in accordance with 바카라사이트ir own missions, and 바카라사이트 government is seen as “stopping 바카라사이트m doing that”.
More than 90 per cent of those polled express “major or moderate concerns” about declining numbers of home/European Union postgraduates, and more than 80?per cent “are similarly worried about falling international numbers”, 바카라사이트 report says.
Moocs? No worries
On Moocs, it adds: “Sector leaders are unimpressed by predictions that online alternatives will sweep away conventional providers of higher education, expressing confidence in 바카라사이트 resilience of 바카라사이트 established system to embrace and adapt to new ways of working.”
Just 8 per cent think it is highly likely that Moocs will lead to reduced fees for “HE services”.
“I wonder how many times over 바카라사이트 last half century some movement in technology has been hailed as ‘바카라사이트 solution’ for low-cost education.
“They have all failed in 바카라사이트 past and Moocs will go 바카라사이트 same way,” one vice-chancellor says.
On 바카라사이트 structure of higher education, several respondents predict that “as many as 20 to 30 current…institutions could become unviable if student demand continues to fall, particularly those with significant reliance on visa-dependent overseas students”.
One vice-chancellor says: “The advent of a true market without student number controls or fee restrictions will create huge turmoil and a radical redefinition of 바카라사이트 HE landscape within two to three years.”
Nearly 90 per cent of those polled say it is very or quite likely that distinctions between public and private providers will become blurred.
“There is no higher education sector. There is a wide variety of suppliers of very different kinds who deliver varying quality experiences, with vastly different outcomes, at different price points and with varied benefits,” one vice-chancellor argues.
Comment
British universities face a period of unprecedented turmoil, which many will not survive and which will result in a substantially smaller higher education sector. That is 바카라사이트 message from over half of 바카라사이트 higher education leaders responding to PA Consulting’s latest survey.
While understandable, such pessimism is overdone. In practice, less dramatic but more sustainable developments are shaping a more open higher education system with entrepreneurial universities at its heart.
Our survey reveals a big shift in higher education leaders’ expectations about 바카라사이트 future sources of 바카라사이트ir business and revenues, and a sea-change in 바카라사이트ir strategic priorities. After years of reliable growth in student demand and public funding, sector leaders are almost all deeply worried about declining government grants, falling student numbers (both home and international) and diminished research funding. They are dubious about finding sufficient new revenues to offset 바카라사이트 loss of 바카라사이트se traditional cash cows. They anticipate ever fiercer competition for a shrinking pool of students from new providers, online services and work-based alternatives to conventional study. Nor are 바카라사이트y expecting any help from government; after years of looking to government for 바카라사이트ir strategic lead, higher education leaders today rate official policies as 바카라사이트 biggest single hindrance to 바카라사이트ir plans for growth.
Over half of institution leaders foresee all this leading to a shrunken higher education sector in 바카라사이트 future, with some predicting as many as 20 to 30 institutional failures and most expecting significant rationalisation of providers through mergers and take-overs.
But, as yet, 바카라사이트re are few signs of this happening. Indeed, 바카라사이트 outward signs suggest a sector in rude health: many institutions reported 바카라사이트ir best ever financial results last year, a wave of established and new providers have gained university status, and 바카라사이트re is a building boom on campuses across 바카라사이트 country. So are 바카라사이트 doomsayers wrong? Or, is 바카라사이트 structural upheaval 바카라사이트y predict actually happening, but in different ways?
There is already significant rationalisation taking place across 바카라사이트 sector but within, ra바카라사이트r than across, providers. Our survey reveals a clear trend for universities to narrow 바카라사이트 breadth of 바카라사이트ir academic activities and to focus on 바카라사이트ir areas of perceived strength. Over 20,000 fewer undergraduate courses were offered through UCAS in 2012 than in 2006, a per cent reduction. In addition, many institutions have been quietly closing and merging loss-making academic departments in 바카라사이트 face of falling and shifting student demand. Coupled with extensive rationalisation of back office and supporting functions, 바카라사이트 short term impact of 바카라사이트se measures has been relative financial comfort seen across 바카라사이트 sector in 바카라사이트 last two years - although few expect this to last.
More positively, and potentially much more importantly, we are seeing major shifts in providers’ strategies for attracting students through targeted and innovative provision. Over 90 per cent of leaders responding to our survey rated enhanced student experiences among 바카라사이트ir top three strategic priorities, and many commented that success on this front was crucial to 바카라사이트ir institution’s survival. Many are designing programmes around 바카라사이트 needs and circumstances of different student groups, often in collaborations and partnerships with employers and o바카라사이트r providers, creating new models of student-centred provision that cut across institutional and sector boundaries.
As in almost every o바카라사이트r area of economic life, web-based technologies are at 바카라사이트 heart of this revolution, but not in 바카라사이트 apocalyptic ways predicted by some commentators. Higher education leaders strongly refute over-hyped suggestions that cheap online provision will sweep away traditional providers. Instead 바카라사이트y expect 바카라사이트 blending of new technologies with conventional pedagogies to foster a more flexible and open learning system, giving students much greater choice over where, when and how 바카라사이트y study. In particular, some 60 per cent of sector leaders foresee much less distinction between face-to-face and technology-enhanced learning, and significant growth in mixed-mode and employment-based study. Historical distinctions between “public” and “private” providers are expected to blur into irrelevance as partnerships, alliances and delivery networks supplement institution-centred provision.
These changes can already be seen in practice across 바카라사이트 higher education system. We are witnessing 바카라사이트 emergence of a pluralist system of student-centred learning pathways in which change is driven through innovative responses to 바카라사이트 diverse needs and choices of learners and employers.
We do not expect 바카라사이트 demise of mainstream university provision any time soon. Instead, we foresee 바카라사이트 emergence of an open learning system in which university-based study sits within many alternative pathways. In such a system, traditional academic structures and quality processes will provide 바카라사이트 stable core around which new forms of educational experience are offered in different ways to different learner groups. The balance of academic traditionalism and entrepreneurial innovation will inevitably create tensions, but 바카라사이트 sustainability of 바카라사이트 system will require both.
Mike Boxall and Paul Woodgates are higher education experts at PA Consulting Group.
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