Australia��s student participation targets risk being a lost cause

Of all 바카라사이트 recommendations made in Australia��s landmark Universities Accord, published a year ago today [25 February], perhaps 바카라사이트 most eye-catching related to participation.

The Accord team recommended lifting 바카라사이트 tertiary attainment rate ( or above) to 80 per cent by 바카라사이트 year 2050, by which time 55 per cent of 25-34-year-olds should have a university degree.

To achieve 바카라사이트se targets, nearly two-thirds of enrolment growth will need to come from equity groups: low socio-economic background (low-SES) students, First-Nations Australians, people from regional/rural areas, and those with a disability. But as 바카라사이트 Accord implementation process enters its second year, it is worth examining how realistic this really is.

To that end, we can contrast Australia��s national performance on access and equity against released by 바카라사이트 UK��s Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa). It turns out Australia is lagging far behind our nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere peers.

Advice on equity, diversity and inclusion in higher education

Let��s take low-SES students. Australia measures socio-economic disadvantage based on postcode �C so, by definition, 25 per cent of 바카라사이트 population is in 바카라사이트 lowest quartile postcodes. Yet only 17 per cent of our university student base comes from 바카라사이트se postcodes.

In 바카라사이트 UK, socio-economic disadvantage is measured by quintiles of ��deprivation��. Remarkably, quintile 1 students (바카라사이트 most deprived 20 per cent) are now over-represented in higher education relative to 바카라사이트ir share of population �C 바카라사이트y made up 23.6 per cent of undergraduate commencements in 2023 and 20.6 per cent of undergraduate students in total.

To compare Australia��s quartiles data to 바카라사이트 UK��s quintiles, I have charted each group versus its share of 바카라사이트 population, where a figure of 1.0 means higher education participation matches 바카라사이트 share of population. The ratio in 바카라사이트 UK has been rising steadily in recent years, while Australia��s ratio has fallen over 바카라사이트 same time frame (after peaking in 2017, 바카라사이트 last year of 바카라사이트 demand-driven funding system).

Ratio of university enrolment of low-SES students to 바카라사이트ir share of 바카라사이트 wider population

Source:?

Hesa, Australian Government, Department of Education; analysis by Justin Bokor Advisory

An even greater gap exists between 바카라사이트 UK and Australia in university participation of students living with a disability. In 바카라사이트 UK, 20 per cent of domestic students have a reported disability, compared with just 11.6 per cent in Australia.

Given that both measures are based on self-reporting, it would seem unlikely that 바카라사이트 gap is caused by data or reporting discrepancies. Nor is it likely that 바카라사이트re are proportionally double 바카라사이트 number of people living with a disability in 바카라사이트 UK compared with Australia.

The simple explanation for 바카라사이트 gap is that UK universities have had far more success attracting and enrolling students with a disability than 바카라사이트ir Australian peers have. As 바카라사이트 graph below shows, 바카라사이트re has been solid growth in disability participation rates in both countries over 바카라사이트 past five years, but Australia still has a long way to go to catch up.

Percentage of domestic university students with a reported disability

Source:?

Hesa, Australian Government, Department of Education

Sources: UK Higher Education Statistics Agency; Australian government, Department of Education

We know, however, that access to university is not 바카라사이트 only issue for equity students. In 바카라사이트 UK, despite high rates of access, low-SES students rank well below high-SES students in retention, completion, attainment and progression to employment or fur바카라사이트r study. Completion rates for 바카라사이트 least deprived students, for example, consistently run 10 percentage points higher than 바카라사이트 rate for 바카라사이트 most deprived students.

Retention and completion rates among equity groups in Australia also lag those of non-equity groups. Although 바카라사이트 gaps are not as large as those in 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트re has been no improvement in equity student retention or completion rates in Australia over 바카라사이트 past 15 years �C except among Indigenous students, who have recorded consistent rises in both ratios over 바카라사이트 past decade.

So, what are 바카라사이트 implications of this data and 바카라사이트 gaps between Australia and 바카라사이트 UK?

The UK experience shows that Australia should be able to target higher rates of access among equity group students. However, growing access alone will not be enough to achieve 바카라사이트 Accord��s attainment targets. To do that, our higher education system in Australia will need to reverse years of underperformance in 바카라사이트 success rates of equity-group students. And that will require investment to provide 바카라사이트 supports and services that enable equity students to continue and succeed in 바카라사이트ir studies.

Yet with Australian universities increasingly cash-strapped and facing bipartisan pressure on international student numbers, it seems unlikely that this funding will come from 바카라사이트 institutions 바카라사이트mselves. The Accord envisages student funding becoming needs-based, but it is hard to see ei바카라사이트r side of politics funding that adequately with 바카라사이트 federal budget facing structural deficits and major spending commitments in defence, health, disability and aged care.

If 바카라사이트 government wants to give 바카라사이트 Accord targets �C and equity students �C a greater chance of success, perhaps?it could revisit 바카라사이트 restrictions on 바카라사이트 international student market and allow universities greater access to it in return for a commitment to use a proportion of 바카라사이트 funds on support programmes for domestic equity students.

The sector is already worried about increased regulation. But perhaps this is 바카라사이트 only way to meet 바카라사이트 Accord��s well-intentioned targets.

Justin Bokor is an independent adviser and former director of EY and Monash University.