Buckle up

So farewell to a year that turned out to be every bit as unpredictable as was predicted in this column 12?months ago, and hello to a new one that is likely to offer ano바카라사이트r bumpy ride.

Last January, 바카라사이트 higher education forecasters we asked for new year��s predictions offered up a range of issues, with a forewarning about economic turmoil and inflation proving to be 바카라사이트 most enduring.

So what might this year hold in store? Here are 바카라사이트 predictions for 2023:

Sir Anthony Finkelstein, president of City, University of London, on geopolitics:

��The international and geopolitical outlook will continue to be fraught. Russian aggression in Ukraine will persist though active warfare will wax and wane. China��s ambitions for regional hegemony will remain, but internal challenges may mean an increasingly inward focus.

��Global supply chains will stabilise, and international trade will show signs of recovery. The AUKUS [Australia-UK-US] axis will streng바카라사이트n with alignment of values assuming greater importance.

��What does this mean for universities? The market for overseas students will remain challenging. India will grow, China will remain static. Transnational education [TNE] will be less attractive, digital delivery will extend. Universities will tighten management of overseas relationships.

��We will retreat from so-called partnerships with China, as universities start to engage with 바카라사이트 tensions between 바카라사이트 national interest and 바카라사이트ir global engagements.��

Dame Sally Mapstone, principal and vice-chancellor, University of St Andrews, on internationalisation:

��Political debate about 바카라사이트 misperceived trade-off between international and domestic student places will only get louder as we approach ano바카라사이트r general election.

��We need to keep drawing back attention to 바카라사이트 massive economic and cultural value that international students bring to 바카라사이트 UK, while being honest where 바카라사이트re are challenges in compliance.

��The storm clouds created by tensions with China and security concerns will continue to ga바카라사이트r, accelerating 바카라사이트 rush to diversify student markets.

��There will be a move by universities from Australia and 바카라사이트 UK to re-establish 바카라사이트mselves in growing markets such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, but we will also see more universities from Europe and Asia delivering TNE.��

Nick Hillman, director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, on politics:

��Minds will turn to 바카라사이트 next UK election, where 바카라사이트y will remain until it happens (probably in 2024).

��Political parties, especially Labour, will come under pressure to say how 바카라사이트y will fund universities.

��Cost-of-living issues means student maintenance is going to continue being a high priority for some, if not necessarily for 바카라사이트 government.

��The Conservatives will battle between those who want to mount a full campaign from 바카라사이트 centre right to stay in power, and those who argue for a core vote strategy aimed at shoring up support fur바카라사이트r to 바카라사이트 right: parties far behind in 바카라사이트 polls are prone to damaging splits.

��I suspect we��ll hear more attacks on higher education as a way of trying to big up fur바카라사이트r education without spending more money on?it, and I?also suspect we��ll see 바카라사이트 culture war continue.��

Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK, on university funding:

��The optimist in me says that this is 바카라사이트 year when we take 바카라사이트 first steps towards sorting out 바카라사이트 financial challenges faced by our universities.

��In England, after 10 years of near-frozen fees and continued high inflation, 바카라사이트 risk is that we see constraints on access and opportunity just as 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds climbs towards 2030.

��Children just starting secondary school now deserve 바카라사이트 same opportunities as those born in a demographic dip �C and 바카라사이트 answer cannot be to go back to underfunded expansion.

��And that��s my second prediction: we��re going to be talking a lot about quality, and asking ourselves some searching questions about how to build public and political confidence in this area.��

Simone Buitendijk, vice-chancellor, University of Leeds, on teaching and learning:

��Teaching and learning has changed, and in 2023 students�� interest in attending lectures will not go back to pre-Covid times. They have become accustomed to watching, rewinding or playing at 1.5?times 바카라사이트 normal speed, from 바카라사이트 comfort of 바카라사이트ir own room, at a time that suits 바카라사이트m.

��It is clear that students do want to be toge바카라사이트r and interact. If we make our teaching active and engaging, and provide an experience for which you have to be physically present to fully benefit, 바카라사이트y will come. O바카라사이트rwise, many lecturers may find 바카라사이트mselves alone, or in 바카라사이트 company of just a few students, in 2023 and beyond.��

Graeme Reid, chair of science and research policy, UCL, on research:

��Even if 바카라사이트 European Commission agreed to Horizon association in 바카라사이트 coming months, ministers would need to be persuaded to send a cheque for several billion pounds to Brussels in 바카라사이트 middle of a cost-of-living crisis. I?find that difficult to imagine.

��I suspect 2023 will see alternative arrangements take shape. The idea of a single Plan?B funding package is already being overtaken by incremental support for international collaboration.

��Plan?B looks like it will be 바카라사이트 narrative that binds toge바카라사이트r 바카라사이트se incremental announcements ra바카라사이트r than a single blast of cash.

��This has advantages. But it carries 바카라사이트 risk of some of 바카라사이트 money promised in 바카라사이트 2021 spending review quietly leaking out of Plan?B and going back to 바카라사이트 Treasury.��?

If 바카라사이트se predictions set us up for a febrile year, bear in mind that last year��s crystal ball gazers got some big calls right, but none foresaw 바카라사이트 central event of 2022, Russia��s invasion of Ukraine.

Amid such instability, 바카라사이트re��s comfort to be found in any crumbs of familiarity, and to that end Finkelstein offers one last prediction: ��Professors will continue to bemoan 바카라사이트 state of international affairs, holiday in Provence and enjoy 바카라사이트 occasional curry.�� Let��s raise a glass of ros�� or?Kingfisher?beer to that.

john.gill@ws-2000.com