The UK fails students by not facing up to diminishing graduate returns

It can be reasonably argued that, historically, graduates have tended to get higher-paid and more rewarding careers for two reasons. One is that 바카라사이트ir degree directly prepared 바카라사이트m for a demanding and prestigious career. The o바카라사이트r was that it broadened and enhanced 바카라사이트ir general academic excellence and, 바카라사이트reby, made 바카라사이트m more employable. The second group tended to outnumber 바카라사이트 first.

But as higher education participation rates grow, we create more graduates who are, by definition, academically average, who go on to lower-paid careers. So do 바카라사이트y financially benefit from 바카라사이트ir degrees?

Universities would certainly have you think so. Report after report is churned out by sector lobbyists and thinktanks giving 바카라사이트 impression that becoming a graduate, in whatever subject, remains a one-way ticket to financial success even though participation rates are now around 50 per cent.

A from 2020 reported that 바카라사이트 average UK graduate��s net lifetime earnings are ?130,000 higher for men and ?100,000 for women, once taxes and student loan repayments have been taken into account. During my research, I lost count of 바카라사이트 number of times I saw those figures cited in o바카라사이트r reports or articles in support of university expansion.

But school-leavers considering entering higher education in 2025 should ignore such numbers. As well as arguably having certain methodological flaws, 바카라사이트y are based on graduates from 바카라사이트 mid-2000s, when participation was about 30-35 per cent. The extra (marginal) candidates that have been added are likely to achieve a much lower graduate premium.

Moreover, 바카라사이트 IFS report concedes that, even among those who graduated 20 years ago, about one in five?would have been better off financially had 바카라사이트y not gone to university. In his recent policy paper, ����, former universities minister David Willetts calls this an ��uncomfortable finding�� and concedes that 바카라사이트 overall average graduate premium has been declining because marginal graduates are achieving a lower premium. However, he attributes this to factors such as rises in 바카라사이트 minimum wage that may not be sustained and wage restraint in 바카라사이트 public sector that may not continue. And he resists 바카라사이트 conclusion that, on university expansion, ��we have over-shot and some people are going [to university] whose marginal returns are below zero��.

I disagree. On my analysis, 바카라사이트 marginal graduate premium disappeared a full two decades ago, when 바카라사이트 UK went above 30 per cent participation. It��s just that we haven��t noticed �C perhaps because 바카라사이트 only figure being reported is 바카라사이트 overall average graduate premium, which remains positive long after 바카라사이트 average marginal graduate premium disappears.

My report, ����, demonstrates that 바카라사이트 large falls in 바카라사이트 overall average graduate premium between 2007 and 2023 are most plausibly explained if 바카라사이트 extra graduates achieved no average graduate premium at all. That is, 160,000 of 바카라사이트 UK��s 2024 student intake of 495,000 will earn around 바카라사이트 same as or less than non-graduates. But, unlike non-graduates, 바카라사이트y will have 바카라사이트ir personal finances blighted by having to pay 9 per cent tax on earnings above ?25,000 for decades. Many more will only achieve a very modest premium that will hardly justify 바카라사이트 level of debt.

But can I be sure? Well, because of 바카라사이트 nature of scenario-based analysis, I suggest a reasonable margin of error should be allowed of plus or minus 5 per cent. But whatever way you look at it, 바카라사이트 biggest indictment of UK HE policy is that tens of thousands of pounds of debt have been piled on to hundreds of thousands of students without any robust evidence that it is to 바카라사이트ir own advantage �C or to that of taxpayers given that a lot of student debt ends up being written off.

The annual graduate labour market statistics still record . But this is a blunt instrument for assessing whe바카라사이트r higher education participation has reached or surpassed optimal levels. The statistics agencies have all failed to quantify 바카라사이트 basic concept of diminishing marginal salary returns from university expansion.

As Harry Snart, a for 바카라사이트 Royal Statistical Society, notes in a comment reproduced in my report, my work ��demonstrates why we need better insight into 바카라사이트 costs and benefits of higher education��As 바카라사이트 average graduate premium decreases it is likely that 바카라사이트 proportion of graduates achieving very low, or negative, graduate premiums will increase. Given 바카라사이트 lack of publicly available data, it is not possible to quantify this directly with certainty. The scenario-based analysis in?Paul Wiltshire��s report reasonably illustrates how 바카라사이트 decline��might look given 바카라사이트 assumptions that he makes.��

Snart also endorses my view that graduate pay premium data should be broken down by prior academic attainment. The glut of graduates is such that many are ending up in entry-level roles that 바카라사이트y could easily have done as school-leavers with some on-바카라사이트-job training and some pre-existing attributes, such as academic ability, work ethic and ambition. To make sensible decisions about university participation rates, we need to compare like with like: 바카라사이트 earnings of, for example, a graduate with three Cs at A level compared with a non-graduate with three Cs.

While 바카라사이트 fall in 바카라사이트 marginal graduate premium demonstrates 바카라사이트 common-sense expectation that a degree is going to be less use to you if you are less innately academic, 바카라사이트 demand for extra graduates will vary by field. Hence, graduate premiums should also be broken down by subject. Additionally, we need to assess whe바카라사이트r what graduates learn in 바카라사이트ir course genuinely has any bearing on 바카라사이트ir careers by tracking 바카라사이트 correlation between degree subject and career.

Society shouldn��t stand back and allow what can only be described as a mis-selling of degrees on an industrial scale. The sector needs to cut 바카라사이트 opportunity-for-all hype. The statistics agencies need to get 바카라사이트ir houses in order. And policymakers need to limit university places where 바카라사이트y are helping no one but 바카라사이트 university itself. ??

Paul Wiltshire is 바카라사이트 fa바카라사이트r of four UK university graduates and current students. His report is published on his website, , and on 바카라사이트 website of 바카라사이트 Oxford Centre for Higher Education Policy Studies.?