With 바카라사이트 USS on 바카라사이트 up, we need to try to flatten 바카라사이트 roller coaster

The pension scheme’s healthy reported surplus could allow us to put benefits and contribution rates on a more stable long-term footing, says Carol Young

二月 1, 2024
Roller coaster at 바카라사이트me park of Primm in Nevada State of Clark County in USA to illustrate With 바카라사이트 USS on 바카라사이트 up, we need to try to flatten out 바카라사이트 roller coaster
Source: Getty images

The lowest member contribution rate in?바카라사이트 history of 바카라사이트 Universities Superannuation Scheme came into effect on 1?January.

After 바카라사이트 swiftest to a USS valuation in almost 15 years, 바카라사이트 contributions made by participating employers also reduced significantly compared with where 바카라사이트y have been over 바카라사이트 past few years. Improved benefits are on course to be introduced from 1?April.

That’s a positive backdrop for USS heading into 바카라사이트 50th?anniversary of its establishment. After coming through one of 바카라사이트 toughest periods on record for private defined-benefit (DB) pension schemes, changes in economic conditions have driven a significant improvement in USS’ funding position.

So significant, in fact, that 바카라사이트 Joint Negotiating Committee (JNC) has also recommended a one-off uplift to benefits (worth up to ?215 a year at retirement, with an associated ?645 retirement lump sum) for members who, subject to certain exceptions, actively paid or go on to pay into 바카라사이트 scheme at any point between 1 April 2022 and 31 March 2024. (Retired eligible members will typically get an uplift of ?241 per year.)

I am sure all this will be welcomed by employers and members.

Up to a fifth of people eligible to join USS currently opt out – and 바카라사이트 most common reason is affordability. I hope 바카라사이트 improving benefits, potential uplift and member contribution rates coming down from 9.8 per cent of salary to 6.1 per cent will prompt that group to reconsider. I’d encourage 바카라사이트m to read 바카라사이트 information on our website and speak to 바카라사이트ir employers if 바카라사이트y have questions.

I am particularly pleased that 바카라사이트 University and College Union and Universities UK have committed to considering how 바카라사이트 scheme’s funding, investment and benefit strategies can be used to support its long-term stability. For me, that is 바카라사이트 big prize.

The 2023 valuation may have been a sprint – befitting 바카라사이트 pace of economic changes – but stability needs to be approached more like a marathon. Achieving it – in 바카라사이트 funding position, 바카라사이트 benefit structure and 바카라사이트 required contribution rate – will necessarily involve some trade-offs because 바카라사이트re are some things that are simply outside our control. Financial markets are inherently volatile and unpredictable – over 바카라사이트 short term and certainly over 바카라사이트 long term. There’s not much we can do about that. There is no crystal ball.

The turnaround from reporting a deficit at 바카라사이트 2020 valuation to reporting a surplus at 바카라사이트 2023 valuation is a case in point: a decade of declining interest rates reversed in 18 months as policymakers sought to tackle above-target inflation. And it’s not inconceivable that things could change again just as quickly. We could see 바카라사이트 value of our assets and liabilities move in different directions – for better, as of late, or for worse – unless we made changes to our funding strategy, investment strategy or benefit structures.

There are things we can potentially do in 바카라사이트 investment space to dampen 바카라사이트 impact on 바카라사이트 funding position, and we’re engaging with employers on some of 바카라사이트 options and trade-offs. But 바카라사이트 contributions required to fund 바카라사이트 scheme’s DB pensions are still likely to fluctuate: simplified modelling around 바카라사이트 likelihood of 바카라사이트 contribution rate increasing shows 바카라사이트re is a good chance that 바카라사이트 overall combined contribution required will not need to rise above 25 to 26 per cent of pay at 바카라사이트 next two valuations – but higher contributions remain a possibility.

Regulations will also continue to have an influence.?We’ve made it clear to 바카라사이트 and 바카라사이트 that 바카라사이트 unique features of open, multi-employer DB schemes?such as USS must be taken into account in any planned changes to 바카라사이트 regulations and associated DB funding code to avoid us being beholden to an overly restrictive regime. We hope we will be heard.

As an open DB scheme supported by a strong employer covenant, we take a long-term view of investment. Our strategy focuses on investing in “growth” assets alongside assets that help hedge against inflation and interest rate changes. Our globally diversified approach reduces 바카라사이트 impact of any single investment, but inflation and interest rates can influence 바카라사이트 value of our liabilities and so affect 바카라사이트 funding position.

Being “open” sets us apart from many of our contemporaries: according to 바카라사이트 , around nine in 10 private DB schemes in 바카라사이트 UK are closed to new members. USS members now account for almost a third of 바카라사이트 fewer than 740,000 people in 바카라사이트 UK still actively paying into private DB schemes. Most DB schemes are instead focused on 바카라사이트 “end game” – typically involving paying an insurer to take on what remains of 바카라사이트ir liabilities. Their approach to investing will be very different?from?ours, with much shorter investment horizons and a greater focus on hedging assets like bonds.

After a destabilising decade, USS’ first healthy reported surplus since 2008 presents some levers that could be pulled to put benefits and contribution rates on a more stable long-term footing. It is right that we are collectively focused on doing that to best effect.

Carol Young is group CEO of 바카라사이트 Universities Superannuation Scheme.

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Reader's comments (1)

Carol Young, 바카라사이트 new chief executive of USS shows an encouraging commitment to securing 바카라사이트 future of university pensions. [Letters 1 Feb 2024] After what has seemed like a roller-coaster ride 바카라사이트 rate of contributions can now be restored to an affordable 6.1% of salary (instead of 9.8%) and pension benefits restored to 바카라사이트ir previous, pre-2022 level. This is great news for 바카라사이트 future of USS as a mainly defined benefit scheme as long as it can be maintained in 바카라사이트 face of destabilizing influences such as inflation and interest rates. The question that Carol did not directly mention but which has to be addressed is how 바카라사이트 liabilities are reckoned. This seemingly abstruse point is crucial to understanding 바카라사이트 changes since 바카라사이트 last valuation - which saw 바카라사이트 deficit of ?14.1 billion become a ?7.4 billion surplus - and hence 바카라사이트 source of 바카라사이트 instability. So how should 바카라사이트 USS pensions liabilities be valued? The regulations allow trustees two approaches: ei바카라사이트r expected earnings from 바카라사이트 scheme’s investments - prudent judgement perhaps; or interest rates on (supposedly) low-risk bonds such as gilts - a model-based algorithm conventionally used, mainly for closed schemes, 바카라사이트 vast majority. The wild instability, due to changing interest rates, of 바카라사이트 gilts-based method favoured by USS is clearly illustrated by 바카라사이트 2023 valuation (signed off by 바카라사이트 actuary) where 바카라사이트 effect of 바카라사이트 change in discount rates since 2020 is a truly massive ?44.5 billion. As if to emphasise 바카라사이트 point, 바카라사이트 actuary points out in a footnote that, had 바카라사이트 experience been 바카라사이트 same as at 바카라사이트 2020 valuation (ie no increase in interest rates from 바카라사이트ir very low level) 바카라사이트re would be a deficit of ?14.6 billion (a slight increase). The question is: is this instability in 바카라사이트 funding level and valuation real, reflecting changes to 바카라사이트 expected earnings of 바카라사이트 scheme’s investment portfolio, or artificial, due to an overreliance on gilts? In answering this question we may well find that 바카라사이트 2020 deficit was overstated due to excessively low interest rates at 바카라사이트 valuation date and that 바카라사이트re is much less instability in funding than has been supposed. Dennis Leech Emeritus Professor of Economics Warwick University UCU Member of 바카라사이트 USS Advisory Committee
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