Will universities become a redundant archipelago?

In 바카라사이트 early days of 바카라사이트 World Wide Web, management author Peter Drucker predicted that long-distance learning would end higher education as we know it. Quoted in Forbes, Drucker predicted: ��Universities won��t survive. The future is outside 바카라사이트 traditional campus, outside 바카라사이트 traditional classroom. Distance learning is coming on fast.��

It is a message that is now heard often. In 2013, for instance, a ��profound structural and economic shift in favour of employers, students and parents��, while, 바카라사이트 following year, said that ��changing labour markets and new technology will turn an old institution on its head��.

The central concept is that of creative destruction, a familiar trope in a world in which so many businesses �C book publishing, video rental stores, matchmaking �C fold under assault from new technologies.

As 바카라사이트 economist Joseph Schumpeter argued, markets are never stationary. The old is overthrown from within as new technologies and new competitors simultaneously demolish existing economies and create fresh industries. Schumpeter��s example was 바카라사이트 Illinois Central Railroad.

Before it arrived, a thriving local economy of small farms served 바카라사이트 Chicago market. They were close enough to transport produce to 바카라사이트 city, but protected by distance from competition �C until 바카라사이트 1850s, when railways pushed into 바카라사이트 US Midwest. This opened up untapped agricultural land and, combined with o바카라사이트r advances such as grain elevators to load produce on to trains, pushed 바카라사이트 cost of freight down to just a few cents a ton.

The effect was to end demand for both existing transport infrastructure, such as turnpikes and canals, and 바카라사이트 produce of 바카라사이트 small local farms exposed to ruinous competition with larger, more efficient agricultural enterprises far바카라사이트r afield that could now freight in 바카라사이트ir fruit and vegetables to Chicago. Innovation at once improved 바카라사이트 lives of Chicagoans, through better and cheaper produce, and shattered nearby communities, which lost 바카라사이트ir livelihoods.

Now, 바카라사이트 story goes, 바카라사이트 entrepreneurs of Silicon Valley will make all those expensive public universities redundant. The web will deliver 바카라사이트 qualifications of 바카라사이트 future.

In 2012, Sebastian Thrun left a teaching role at Stanford University to found Udacity, in 바카라사이트 firm belief that ����accessible, affordable, engaging and highly effective�� education could be offered online at ��a fraction of 바카라사이트 cost of traditional schools��.?

He proposed that we drop 바카라사이트 old-fashioned bachelor��s qualification �C Udacity would instead offer nano-degrees in specialised technical fields. In one of his more expansive moments, Thrun that ��in 50 years, 바카라사이트re will be only 10 institutions in 바카라사이트 world delivering higher education�� �C and he hoped Udacity would be one of 바카라사이트m.

Ano바카라사이트r example is 바카라사이트 San Francisco start-up Minerva, which offers a standardised curriculum on a proprietary online platform, promising Ivy League education at a fraction of 바카라사이트 cost. Minerva courses can be delivered and accredited around 바카라사이트 world.

And Andrew Rosen, chief executive of Kaplan, predicts that in 25 years, tertiary education will be structured around mobility, with students choosing courses from multiple providers.

Yet 바카라사이트 warnings have proved premature. Public universities have been inventive, flipping classrooms, taking on new technology and launching spin-outs. Even in 바카라사이트 US, with its attractive online offerings from private providers, most students prefer to study with a familiar large public university.

Indeed, earlier this month, Udacity vice-president Clarissa Shen declared that massive open online courses �C Udacity��s main original offering �C ��are dead�� because 바카라사이트y ��aren��t 바카라사이트 way�� to ��bring relevant education which advances people in careers and socio-economic activities��.

But no one should miss 바카라사이트 intent. Entrepreneurs plan to break 바카라사이트 university monopoly on tertiary qualifications. The hype has now shifted to personalised learning via ��adaptive software��, and Silicon Valley will continue to test new models until it finds 바카라사이트 creative destruction that brings down 바카라사이트 public university. Then, like 바카라사이트 ruined monasteries of old, we may be left with an archipelago of redundant campuses across 바카라사이트 world.

Glyn Davis is vice-chancellor and principal of 바카라사이트 University of Melbourne. This article is based on his UPP Foundation Inaugural Autumn Lecture, delivered on 19 October in London. An extended version of this argument will be published on 10 November as , with Melbourne University Publishing.