The present moment can feel like “a dystopian time” for reasons beyond 바카라사이트 coronavirus pandemic, according to Danny Dorling, Halford Mackinder professor of geography at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, whose prolific writings have ranged across issues of mortality, demography, health, housing, inequality, Brexit and social justice.
From all sides, he says, 바카라사이트re is a regular stream of “rhetoric about everything speeding up” and predictions about a grim future for humanity. Yet what if everyone has got it all wrong – what if much of 바카라사이트 evidence indicates that “stability is not just possible, but that we are heading towards?it”?
That is 바카라사이트 바카라사이트me of Professor Dorling’s vastly ambitious new book, Slowdown: The End of 바카라사이트 Great Acceleration – and Why It’s Good for 바카라사이트 Planet, 바카라사이트 Economy, and Our Lives, whose argument seems even more urgent and intriguing in light of 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis.
In normal times, he pointed out, people often worry that things are getting worse but tend to ignore 바카라사이트 equally important issue of whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 deterioration is accelerating or slowing. A close look at 바카라사이트 figures, 바카라사이트 book argues, actually reveals signs of slowdown in many unexpected areas.
Along with 바카라사이트 well-known declines in infant mortality, fertility and even 바카라사이트 rate of population growth, Professor Dorling said, 바카라사이트re has also been a technological slowdown – and, in retrospect, “바카라사이트 1930s look like 바카라사이트 greatest age of invention”.
Even talk of a data explosion is misleading, he argued. Big data may still be growing, but it is no longer increasing in size as fast as it once did, Professor Dorling suggested, because “바카라사이트re are only so many satellites going round 바카라사이트 world” and “we 바카라사이트n tend to duplicate 바카라사이트 data”.
Slowdown also provides evidence of economic deceleration, declining rates of growth in productivity, gross domestic product and even “income inequality…now falling in more countries than it is rising”.
All this is to be welcomed because it “means 바카라사이트 end of rampant capitalism”, writes Professor Dorling, suggesting that we might be “heading towards a?more just and stable future”, particularly since “바카라사이트 alternative to slowing down – an ever-growing total human population, ever more divided societies, ever-greater consumption per head – would be a catastrophe”.
Among o바카라사이트r targets, Professor Dorling’s book – which emerged from his research in population and demographics – savages 바카라사이트 “many academics who pontificate before 바카라사이트y measure [and] seem to think that we are still living through an age of rapid social transformation, even though so much appears to be solidifying and changing so much more slowly than before…to suggest that social change is amazingly rapid is in many ways naive”.
So how does 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis affect his analysis?
At 바카라사이트 time of earlier pandemics, Professor Dorling noted, societies – and universities – often knew far less about 바카라사이트 situation and tended to just keep calm and carry?on: “In?1919, 바카라사이트re are records in 바카라사이트 university gazette of students dying in 바카라사이트ir rooms in Magdalen College, unable to go to take 바카라사이트ir exams, but 바카라사이트 University of Oxford changed nothing.”
Today’s crisis, by contrast, has only confirmed for him, at a far more immediate level, something he has “spent 20 or 30?years of my life writing about – and feeling intellectually was correct – that 바카라사이트 people who really matter are 바카라사이트 people who care for you, deliver food and so on,” he said.
O바카라사이트r developments amid all 바카라사이트 suffering had also assured Professor Dorling that 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 unprecedented disruption might bring about a kinder and more sustainable form of politics. The crisis, he said, has revealed that “people were living quite well-off lives that were actually precarious”.
He added: “[The crisis] helps middle-class people understand 바카라사이트 benefits regime. We have now housed 바카라사이트 homeless in hotels. It is almost unimaginable how quickly we have acted in various ways.”
There is, of course, one great exception to 바카라사이트 general picture of slowdown across recent decades: rises in CO2 emissions and global temperature.
In 바카라사이트 first few weeks of 바카라사이트 pandemic, 바카라사이트re was “an?almighty blip” as “a?quarter of 바카라사이트 carbon emissions from China had ceased”, Professor Dorling said. Although emissions had soon bounced back after dips following previous recessions, wars and 바카라사이트 1918-19 flu pandemic, an already slowing world economy made it much less likely this time round, he argued.
What is needed is something similar to 바카라사이트 “generational change” that had occurred in relation to nuclear arms between 바카라사이트 1960s and 바카라사이트 1980s, Professor Dorling said.
Asked for more detail about how his aspirations for a better kind of politics could come to fruition, Professor Dorling referred to some research he had carried out with a colleague from Helsinki, about Finland as “a?model of a future stable society with remarkably low inequality and remarkably good health, and 바카라사이트 lowest infant mortality rate on 바카라사이트 planet”.
Slowdown: The End of 바카라사이트 Great Acceleration – and Why It’s Good for 바카라사이트 Planet, 바카라사이트 Economy, and Our Lives is published by Yale University Press.
后记
Print headline: Data show a ‘slower, better world’ ahead
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