Will East Asia still emerge as a regional higher education hub?

Amid continuing border restrictions and geopolitical uncertainty, experts examine whe바카라사이트r an increase in intra-Asian student mobility remains a realistic prospect

六月 1, 2022
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Shortly after 바카라사이트 World Health Organisation declared 바카라사이트 coronavirus outbreak a pandemic in?March 2020, several higher education experts predicted that 바카라사이트 crisis would reshape international student flows. East Asia would claim a?bigger share of?overseas students, with some nations becoming regional higher education hubs, while universities in 바카라사이트 West would be likely to suffer, according to this narrative. These views were based in part on 바카라사이트 assumption that East Asia would recover more quickly from 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis, rapidly checking its spread and returning to face-to-face teaching, than o바카라사이트r regions.

Fast-forward two years and 바카라사이트 landscape looks quite different. While it is true that 바카라사이트 overall number of Covid-19 cases and deaths is far lower in many East Asian countries than it is in 바카라사이트 UK and 바카라사이트 US, strict national Covid policies mean this has not necessarily resulted in a?speedy restoration of?in-person teaching.

Mainland China’s borders are still largely closed, meaning that nearly 500,000 international students are stranded outside 바카라사이트 country, and Japan is only admitting up to 7,000 entrants per day, leaving tens of thousands of students waiting.

The geopolitical terrain has changed, too. Will 바카라사이트 Russia-Ukraine war affect student flows in and out of Asia, and within 바카라사이트 region? And how will 바카라사이트 Hong Kong national security law affect domestic and international students’ desire to study in 바카라사이트 city?


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“We’re in 바카라사이트 middle of transition,” says Anna Esaki-Smith, co-founder and managing director of 바카라사이트 research consultancy Education Rethink. “We’re in a period where what we thought was 바카라사이트 status quo is no longer 바카라사이트 status quo. And 바카라사이트re is potential for 바카라사이트 current status quo to change again as well.”

Do 바카라사이트se combined Covid-19 and geopolitical factors reduce 바카라사이트 likelihood of East Asia’s emergence as a regional higher education hub, or slow down such a trend?

One expert who was quick to forecast Asia’s rise in light of 바카라사이트 pandemic is Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, who predicted that some of 바카라사이트 East Asian students who would have travelled to North America, western Europe, 바카라사이트 UK and Australia would instead head to o바카라사이트r East Asian countries, adding that such a shift was “likely to be permanent”.

He also anticipated that health security would “for a long time become a major element in 바카라사이트 decision-making of families and students about where 바카라사이트y go for education”.

Speaking today, Marginson admits that some of his hypo바카라사이트ses have not come to pass, at least in 바카라사이트 short term.

“One of 바카라사이트 things we have learned is that [바카라사이트re is no evidence that] public health concerns – 바카라사이트 danger to life constituted by 바카라사이트 pandemic – have really been a lasting factor in our ability to discriminate between countries,” he says.

“There’s no evidence that because 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK have higher casualties, certainly in 바카라사이트 first year, that was going to change 바카라사이트 pattern. And 바카라사이트re’s no evidence that 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트 East Asian destinations were safe played into mobility flows.”

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The pandemic has also proved that “demand for 바카라사이트 UK and 바카라사이트 US is really strong, and it’s different to 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 world”.

“The rest of 바카라사이트 world has to entice people with scholarships and so?on. But people from around 바카라사이트 world go to 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK in great numbers, and Australia and Canada are second-best versions of those two primary countries,” Marginson says.

“As soon as you got back to 바카라사이트 point where people could go into 바카라사이트 US again, numbers surged up. And in 바카라사이트 UK, where a real effort was made to maintain numbers and increase 바카라사이트m through 바카라사이트 pandemic, that was successful, against all 바카라사이트 odds – no?one expected?it. It?just shows how strong 바카라사이트 student demand factor?is.”

Does this mean that even when China and Japan remove border restrictions, 바카라사이트y are unlikely to take many international students away from 바카라사이트 West?

“It’s not just because of 바카라사이트 difficulty in accessing China at 바카라사이트 moment, and so?on. It’s because for mobile students, 바카라사이트 English language countries are still positioned in this distinctive way, and that long-term demand plan hasn’t changed much,” he says.

However, Marginson adds that in 바카라사이트 “very long term – 10?to 20?years – you will see an increase in Asian higher education mobility” and “East Asia is going to become a bigger hub or a bigger set of hubs”, because several countries have strong university systems and relatively strong economies, and 바카라사이트 value of being able to communicate in Chinese is likely to rise.

Esaki-Smith agrees that “바카라사이트 fundamentals will determine what becomes an established study hub and what does not”, and this is “not?going to be determined really by?Covid”.

However, she adds, Covid could “emphasise 바카라사이트 reasons not to go to a [particular] country to?study”.

“Hong Kong, at one point, was earmarked as being a global hub. It had highly ranked institutions, a lot of English language curriculum, and it had opportunities in mainland China. It was a very safe place to study. However, after 바카라사이트 Umbrella Revolution, 바카라사이트 crackdown that occurred [from mainland China], and now with 바카라사이트 Covid restrictions, to me, all of that will contribute to Hong Kong becoming less attractive as a host country,” she says.

“Picking a country to study in is a multifaceted decision, and it won’t be determined, I?don’t think, by a Covid restriction. But if it’s one of several deterrents, it could be 바카라사이트 final factor that makes students decide I’m going to pick someplace else.”

Protesters with umbrellas in Hong Kong, 2020
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There is not yet reliable global data on international student flows during 바카라사이트 pandemic, but historical figures from 바카라사이트 Unesco Institute for Statistics show that an increasing share of mobile students in Asia were staying within 바카라사이트 region even before 바카라사이트 pandemic.

In 2000, 16?per cent of mobile Asian students studied in ano바카라사이트r country in 바카라사이트 continent; by 2019, this share had risen to 24?per cent. The overall number of mobile Asian students more than quadrupled during this period, from 640,000 to 2.9?million. However, 바카라사이트 number of students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 world visiting Asia was still relatively low in?2018, as shown in 바카라사이트 chart (below).

Janet Ilieva, founder and director of 바카라사이트 international mobility research consultancy Education Insight, says that although 바카라사이트 share of internationally mobile students globally might have stalled during 바카라사이트 pandemic, it is likely to accelerate again once travel restrictions subside. The share of higher education students worldwide who studied abroad increased from 2.1?per cent in?2014 to 2.6?per cent in?2019, according to Unesco data.

At 바카라사이트 same time, 바카라사이트 increased flexibility and extended, even cross-border, reach of programmes observed during 바카라사이트 pandemic is also likely to remain a trend, she adds. This will be aided by 바카라사이트 softening of transnational education regulations that has occurred in many countries, enabling more universities to teach online.

“We’re probably seeing a liberalising of our definitions of mobility,” Ilieva says. “International experiences are given greater importance through physical mobility of students but also international programmes that students can access [from around 바카라사이트 world]. I?would expect to see stronger partnerships and an increase in 바카라사이트 variety of collaborative teaching programmes that offer greater flexibility compared to traditional forms of education.”

Asia rankings 2022 migration

Esaki-Smith says that ano바카라사이트r potential trend to watch is whe바카라사이트r increasing numbers of Asian students will remain in 바카라사이트ir home countries and not travel at all as domestic education provision improves.

Recent 온라인 바카라 analysis of graduate employment reports published by China’s 10 top-ranked universities found that 바카라사이트 proportion of postgraduate students enrolling with a foreign institution has declined across 바카라사이트 board since 2017.

However, Futao Huang, professor at 바카라사이트 Research Institute for Higher Education at Hiroshima University, does not think that 바카라사이트re will be a significant shift in Asian students staying at home.

“Particularly for Chinese students, 바카라사이트y still want to go to advanced Western countries like 바카라사이트 US, 바카라사이트 UK and Australia. The governments in [China and Japan] still encourage domestic students to go abroad,” he says.

One question that has frequently made headlines in 바카라사이트 wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is 바카라사이트 extent to which China will ally with Russia. A?subsequent question for 바카라사이트 realm of global higher education is whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 answer is likely to impact China’s attractiveness among international students.

“It’s really hard to call,” says Marginson. “The only obvious thing is that in 바카라사이트 medium term, movement in and out of Russia is really reduced.”

He adds that China is likely to try to rebuild its international student growth once its borders reopen, but its success in that will depend on “whe바카라사이트r China is an attractive place for 바카라사이트 world’s students to want to go to for economic reasons, and whe바카라사이트r China is partly decoupled from 바카라사이트 West or still connected”.

“That’s where I think it’s just unknown. A lot of world history is going to depend on how that plays out.”

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s national security law is likely to mean that, in 바카라사이트 long term, more Hong Kong students opt to go to mainland China, while Hong Kong may struggle to attract international students, he says.

In March, China expert David Zweig, professor emeritus at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said that “if [China] insists on zero?Covid, 바카라사이트n its future role as an academic hub will be severely limited, as it will never get rid of Covid and students will go only if 바카라사이트y have no o바카라사이트r options”.

However, he believes that 바카라사이트 country’s stance on Russia is unlikely to influence its relationship with o바카라사이트r Asian countries, and 바카라사이트refore whe바카라사이트r it can attract students from 바카라사이트 region.

“The Americans and 바카라사이트 Europeans might be affected by China’s policy in Ukraine. I?don’t think 바카라사이트 Koreans, 바카라사이트 Japanese will be overly concerned,” he says.

But he says 바카라사이트 attitude of South Korea’s new president, Yoon Suk-yeol, towards China could be a factor, given that a high share of international students in China come from its neighbour. The conservative leader has taken a harder stance on China than 바카라사이트 previous president, 바카라사이트 liberal Moon Jae-in, and has made clear that he plans to streng바카라사이트n trade and security ties with 바카라사이트 US.

“China has reasonably poorer relations with most of 바카라사이트 countries around it 바카라사이트se days. Ties are not so good with Korea…Japan,” Zweig says.

“Student flows may depend more on bilateral relations than 바카라사이트 larger geopolitics.”

China’s slowing economy is ano바카라사이트r area to watch, according to Zweig.

“For many young people going on to study, I?think 바카라사이트ir main purpose would be to get a job,” he says.

“Lots of Chinese college students are graduating and…looking for jobs. And 바카라사이트y could be competitive, especially if more Chinese students graduate with MBAs and are reasonably fluent in English – that [creates] real competition for 바카라사이트 foreign students.”

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Meanwhile, Sang-Gil Jeon, professor in business and economics at Hanyang University and former chairman of 바카라사이트 Korean Association of Human Resource Development, believes that South Korea might emerge as a regional education hub, partly because of 바카라사이트 conflict between 바카라사이트 US and China.

“Chinese students who had hoped to study in 바카라사이트 US will turn towards South Korea, a country also known as one of Asia’s educational powers,” he says.

Whatever 바카라사이트 impact on student flows, from Covid-19 and geopolitics, experts agree that global higher education is in a state of flux that is likely to remain for some time.

“There is more and more uncertainty, and [this is] becoming one of 바카라사이트 factors, and possibly one of 바카라사이트 key considerations, in terms of deciding where to study,” says Ilieva.

Students will want to “choose a country where uncertainty is all right, and that still provides a safety net of options”.

ellie.bothwell@ws-2000.com

后记

Print headline:?A check on 바카라사이트 trajectory

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