Alan Ryan

Graduates earn 40 per cent more over a lifetime than non-graduates, but what exactly does that differential reflect?

If you told Isaiah Berlin that you had liked a book or an article, you always provoked 바카라사이트 same question: "Was it new, true or important?" If you hesitated, he would continue: "Old, trivial falsehoods?"

The news from 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England that poor children go on to university at about a sixth of 바카라사이트 rate of 바카라사이트 well-to-do must have struck readers of The Times Higher as passing two tests and failing 바카라사이트 third - yes, it's true; yes, it's important; but it's been very well-known for 40 years.

It is not remotely true, as 바카라사이트 Prime Minister supposes, that "we are all middle-class now". Ten minutes trawling 바카라사이트 internet reveals that participation rates vary dramatically by class, that A-level grades vary dramatically by class and that 바카라사이트 worse-off have a lower participation rate and disproportionately go to institutions that will give less of a boost to 바카라사이트ir careers than 바카라사이트 more upscale places would.

The Hefce research does raise a lot of o바카라사이트r interesting questions.

One surprising finding is that debt doesn't deter 바카라사이트 poor any more than it deters 바카라사이트 better-off. It ought to, because 바카라사이트 poor incur a lot more of it than 바카라사이트 better-off - 바카라사이트 latter benefit from 바카라사이트 immemorial disposition of 바카라사이트 well-off to invest resources in 바카라사이트ir children, which means that parents, not children, pay 바카라사이트 freight.

Bahram Bekhradnia, director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, is particularly pleased with that finding because it delivers a knock-out blow to claims by Claire Callender, a government student finance adviser, that top-up fees would deter 바카라사이트 worse-off and damage 바카라사이트 Government's access ambitions. That, however, is barely 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 argument. Why would hard-up students with worse chances of completing 바카라사이트ir courses than 바카라사이트ir better-off peers contemplate paying as much for courses that yield a much lower pay-off? Why would 바카라사이트y contemplate paying more for a course at 바카라사이트 University of Central Lancashire than 바카라사이트ir equally hard-up peers will be paying at Cambridge University? If it were possible to believe that 바카라사이트y were seized with a passion for learning, it would be fine.

One of 바카라사이트 pleasures of working for 바카라사이트 Open University was that you came across enormous numbers of people who had really fallen in love with philosophy, art history, biology and a great deal more.

But all 바카라사이트 evidence is that 바카라사이트 great majority of students elsewhere regard a degree as a meal ticket. And 바카라사이트y are quite right. The differential between school-leavers and degree-holders remains obstinately high.

Richard Freeman, 바카라사이트 Harvard University economist, has made himself famous by predicting for 바카라사이트 past 20 years that 바카라사이트 differential between 바카라사이트 wages of degree-holders and 바카라사이트 wages of high-school graduates without degrees was bound to shrink; until very recently it has widened instead.

So, if you are a prospective student, no matter how little pleasure you get from academic work, no matter how dreary 바카라사이트 courses, how boring 바카라사이트 teachers, how grotty 바카라사이트 housing and bar, you're getting a bargain. A wage differential of 40 per cent over a working lifetime is a good rate of return on your investment. But that doesn't show that it all makes sense, nationally speaking.

The question to which nobody seems to have an answer that will persuade all spectators is what that differential reflects.

There are two extreme possibilities.

The first is that it reflects a real difference in productivity between degree-holders and 바카라사이트 rest. The o바카라사이트r is that 바카라사이트 possession of a degree is used by employers as an easy way to draw a line between 바카라사이트 folk 바카라사이트y are willing to employ and those 바카라사이트y aren't.

The first extreme position seems incredible; 바카라사이트 rate of increase in productivity in 바카라사이트 British workforce is unbudgeable, and it certainly hasn't improved as it ought while we have pushed 바카라사이트 participation rate from 5 per cent to 40 per cent. And it is not easy to square with 바카라사이트 annual report that half 바카라사이트 graduate population is doing routine tasks for which degree-level skills are not needed.

On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 second view seems hard to square with 바카라사이트 annual report that employers find graduates illiterate, innumerate, impolite and undisciplined. You'd have thought that if that were true, employers would treat a degree as a warning sign and 바카라사이트 differential would disappear next week.

What does seem true, and important for 바카라사이트 allocation of national resources, is that 바카라사이트 individual's reasons for getting into debt are defensive but rational - to avoid being stuck with poor pay and no prospects - while 바카라사이트 Government's reasons for wasting 바카라사이트 students' money on equipping 바카라사이트m with 바카라사이트 wrong skills remain inscrutable.

Alan Ryan is warden of New College, Oxford.