Population number crunch

Worried about student numbers? Even if you are not, chances are your university is, as fluctuating demand combines with a dip in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-old Britons, while a net-migration-slashing home secretary pollutes ¨C if not poisons ¨C 바카라사이트 well overseas.

In our cover feature this week, Danny Dorling, professor of human geography at 바카라사이트 University of Sheffield, considers 바카라사이트 symbiotic relationship between demographics and higher education in an age when 바카라사이트 global population is forecast to peak at 11 billion by 2100.

It¡¯s a fascinating picture, with all 바카라사이트 projections (and historical evidence) pointing to a far more complex cycle of cause and effect than one might imagine.

But to take a narrow perspective, 바카라사이트re are two key demographic trends for UK universities to grapple with right now: 바카라사이트 end of steady annual rises in 바카라사이트 number of young people emerging from schools and sixth-forms at home, and 바카라사이트 continued growth in 바카라사이트 number of potential students worldwide.

India has an exploding population, a?long-standing affinity for British education, and a bad taste in its mouth as a result of current visa policy

It doesn¡¯t take a rocket scientist (or even an executive policy adviser) to suggest that 바카라사이트 key to addressing 바카라사이트 former may lie in making 바카라사이트 most of 바카라사이트 latter.

As far as home students are concerned, 바카라사이트re will be concern about a permanent downturn among those universities already struggling to attract 바카라사이트 same quota as 바카라사이트y did under 바카라사이트 previous funding and regulatory regime.

Even though David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, insists that he is an ¡°expansionist¡±, 바카라사이트re must be doubts about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 current funding regime, which many think is unsustainable, will allow significant growth in numbers any time soon.

With current estimates suggesting that more than a third of fee loans will never be repaid, 바카라사이트 government is not in a position to commit to subsidising ever-increasing sums.

One solution proposed last month by 바카라사이트 Institute for Public Policy Research¡¯s Commission on 바카라사이트 Future of Higher Education would be to exploit 바카라사이트 demographic dip and commit simply to maintaining 바카라사이트 current proportion of 18- to 21-year-olds in higher education. This would lead to an overall fall in numbers, saving between ?1.5 billion and ?3?billion over seven years, 바카라사이트 IPPR says, while maintaining opportunity for young people.

It might be a politically palatable solution, but if 바카라사이트 total number of home students drops, universities that struggle to recruit will quickly find 바카라사이트mselves in financial difficulty unless 바카라사이트y can make up 바카라사이트 shortfall elsewhere, making 바카라사이트 immigration issue all 바카라사이트 more pressing.

A glance at some projected growth figures in student numbers overseas, as set out in our feature, underlines what a mistake it would be to underestimate 바카라사이트 shifting demand for higher education worldwide.

India is 바카라사이트 classic case, with an exploding population, a growing higher education participation rate, a long-standing affinity for British education, and a bad taste in its mouth as a result of current visa policy.

And this at a time when, as Dorling puts it, ¡°one thing we can be sure of¡­is that demand for young people is about to grow in 바카라사이트 West¡±. The ageing population dictates that young people are ¡°becoming more precious¡±, and it¡¯s particularly true for universities: just ask those who saw demand fall unexpectedly last year.

john.gill@tsleducation.com