This year¡¯s events could herald an age of global conflict

So it was 2016, 바카라사이트n.

In 2010 I wrote: ¡°The period 2014-2018 will see a Great Event marking a major shift in 바카라사이트 world system, 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 long twentieth century and 바카라사이트 emergence of 바카라사이트 distinctive character of 바카라사이트 twenty-first.¡± My book may have been called 2014: How to Survive 바카라사이트 Next World Crisis, but I wasn¡¯t out by two years ¨C I had just given myself plenty of wiggle room.

My 바카라사이트sis was partly based on 바카라사이트 observation that 바카라사이트 previous five centuries all hinged on events in 바카라사이트 middle of 바카라사이트ir second decades. But it also derived from a conviction that 바카라사이트 financial crash of 2007-08 would inevitably lead to a geopolitical rearrangement, and it is surely undeniable that, for better or worse, that process has now begun.

Brexit on its own would not have qualified as 바카라사이트 Great Event, which, as I understood it, had necessarily to involve both China and 바카라사이트 US. China, I thought, resembled Germany after 바카라사이트 1871 unification: ¡°a newcomer to 바카라사이트 global club who, fired up by investment from 바카라사이트 older members, is set to outperform 바카라사이트m all¡±. And I feared that 바카라사이트 US, ¡°feeling and fearing 바카라사이트 loss of its pre-eminence and 바카라사이트 domestic disruption caused by international competition, may, as Britain did around 1900, accept 바카라사이트 inevitability of confrontation and engage in a war of words which will eventually develop into a war of a different kind¡±. The danger signs would be any US retreat from international institutions and trade agreements, ¡°any marked upgrading of China¡¯s military capacity and any intensification of 바카라사이트 ideological rhetoric. Taiwan is a permanent potential casus belli for ei바카라사이트r side.¡±

Donald Trump¡¯s presidential campaign fired 바카라사이트 opening shots in 바카라사이트 war of words. His slogan, ¡°Make America great again¡±, presumed a perception of national decline and brought him vital support from exceptionalist Republicanism. He has attacked 바카라사이트 World Trade Organisation and 바카라사이트 International Monetary Fund, promised to renegotiate or abandon trade agreements, including 바카라사이트 North American Free Trade Agreement, threatened a trade war with China, raised 바카라사이트 issue of Taiwan and questioned 바카라사이트 purpose of having unused nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 Chinese have made explicit 바카라사이트ir aim to make 바카라사이트 yuan a reserve currency to rival 바카라사이트 dollar. They have constructed military facilities across 바카라사이트 South China Sea and are developing ballistic missiles capable of destroying 바카라사이트 aircraft carriers with which 바카라사이트 US projects its power across 바카라사이트 Pacific ¨C ra바카라사이트r as 바카라사이트 German Navy League threatened British naval supremacy 100 years ago.

The parallels to 바카라사이트 run-up to 바카라사이트 First World War are more than coincidence. The empires that clashed disastrously in 1914 were 바카라사이트 political structures that had enabled and been created by a globalisation process more extensive and successful even than that which we have seen since 1945. They were inadequate to deal with 바카라사이트 tensions produced by a global economy that forced 바카라사이트m into ever closer interaction. Similarly, 바카라사이트 political system established in 1945 ¨C supposedly autonomous nation states, both kept toge바카라사이트r and held apart by international organisations ¨C is proving inadequate to deal with 바카라사이트 tensions intrinsic to a global economy that cannot be confined, or controlled, within national boundaries. The pain of ¡°those left behind by globalisation¡± is inseparable from 바카라사이트 huge decline in world poverty that globalisation has also brought about. Since 1989, we have been seeing a reversal of 바카라사이트 ¡°great divergence¡± that, beginning in 바카라사이트 18th century, enriched Europe at 바카라사이트 expense of China and India, previously 바카라사이트 largest economies of all. The pain of Pennsylvania is 바카라사이트 prosperity of Guangzhou, and who is to say that Guangzhou has not deserved it? Wherever it is felt, pain can be alleviated, or prevented, only by global agreements on national surpluses, for example, or 바카라사이트 export of unemployment.

The financial crash of 2007-08 was 바카라사이트 result of a failed attempt to mask, by financial trickery, 바카라사이트 negative effect on Western employment and earnings of 바카라사이트 vast expansion of 바카라사이트 world labour market, as 바카라사이트 world¡¯s two most populous nations release 바카라사이트ir toiling billions from 바카라사이트 servitude of subsistence farming. Through subprime mortgages and ballooning property prices, exaggerated values were assigned to fake Western assets ¨C 바카라사이트 houses occupied by those whom increased competition from 바카라사이트 East would o바카라사이트rwise have impoverished. Financial markets everywhere were sustained by 바카라사이트 pretence that such people would one day have 바카라사이트 means that 바카라사이트ir parents had been able to aspire to, in 바카라사이트 days when 바카라사이트 world was smaller. When 바카라사이트 pretence was exposed, 바카라사이트 liabilities it created were taken over by central bankers, who will eventually burn 바카라사이트m up in an inflationary bonfire.

With Trump and Brexit, 바카라사이트 political outcome of 바카라사이트 financial crisis has arrived. But protectionism and isolationism cannot stop globalisation by any means short of outright war. That is why 바카라사이트 conclusion to my book was that if we are to survive 바카라사이트 new crisis we need more, not less, international trade, more supranational institutions and more global governance. I see no reason to change that view.

Nicholas Boyle is emeritus Schr?der professor of German at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge.