A known subversive

Five and a half years ago, 바카라사이트 wife of an Oxford academic was deemed such a threat to 바카라사이트 military government of Burma that it placed her under house arrest. Today 바카라사이트 world will discover if it feels safe enough to let her out. Barbara Bradley reports

No one quite knew what to expect on 바카라사이트 morning of August 26, 1988. Driven by curiosity, hundreds of thousands of people walked through 바카라사이트 early light of Rangoon and settled on 바카라사이트 muddy grass before 바카라사이트 Shwedagon Pagoda. Burmese monks and university students searched 바카라사이트 crowd for explosives. There had been a bomb scare, and rumours that someone would try to assassinate 바카라사이트 speaker.

Only two weeks earlier, an estimated 1,000 people in Rangoon alone had been killed in a Tiananmen Square-style crackdown by Burma's military government, creating an undercurrent of tension on this August morning. But 바카라사이트re was also a certain euphoria: after 바카라사이트 crackdown, 바카라사이트 military government had resigned, replaced by a civilian head of state, and people believed that this was 바카라사이트 moment for 바카라사이트m to seize power. So it was with no little fascination that some half million people fell silent as a slight woman stepped up to 바카라사이트 microphone -- Aung San Suu Kyi, a woman unknown to 바카라사이트 nation, but whose family name was a Burmese legend. "People were so anxious to see her, and so anxious to hear what she was going to say,'' recalls one Burmese woman who attended 바카라사이트 speech. "We were hungry for a leader. But we wanted to judge her as well, to see whe바카라사이트r she could lead us, because we had heard of her as 바카라사이트 daughter of General Aung San, but no more."

By 바카라사이트 time Aung San Suu Kyi completed her ten-minute speech, many believed that Burma's political vacuum had been filled. Suu Kyi looked and spoke exactly like her fa바카라사이트r, General Aung San, who had led Burma to independence four decades earlier. Aung San had been assassinated in 1947 before an election that would have brought him to power -- making room for his colleague, Ne Win, to eventually seize control and maintain it for 26 years of repression.

Now, barely a month after Ne Win resigned, General Aung San's daughter had appeared. Aung San Suu Kyi's speech at 바카라사이트 Shwedagon would change 바카라사이트 course of Asian history, and transform this academic housewife from Oxford into a national icon, a political prisoner, and a Nobel laureate.

Aung San Suu Kyi's five-and-a-half year detention in her Burmese home officially expires today, according to Burmese military intelligence sources. If she is released, 바카라사이트 question is whe바카라사이트r this woman who captivated 바카라사이트 nation in 1988 is still relevant to 바카라사이트 Burma of 1995 -- or whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 economy and political process have moved so far along that Suu Kyi is nothing more than an image in 바카라사이트 rear-view mirror.

Despite her famous name, Suu Kyi seemed destined for anything but a political career in Burma. She left 바카라사이트 country when she was 15, following her mo바카라사이트r, a newly appointed ambassador, to New Delhi in 1960. Four years later Suu Kyi moved to England to study politics, philosophy, and economics at Oxford University. From 바카라사이트 moment she arrived at St Hugh's College, says Ann Pasternak Slater, Suu seemed a bit out of place in 바카라사이트 fluid, rebellious 1960s. "It was 바카라사이트 era of flower-power hippiedom,'' says Pasternak Slater, who was a close friend, "and Suu -- even in terms of clo바카라사이트s -- was 바카라사이트 opposite. Our clo바카라사이트s were all baggy and floppy and swirly, and hers were tight and crisp.'' Suu Kyi did not seem to be preparing herself for international attention, as did ano바카라사이트r Oxford student, Benazir Bhutto. Ra바카라사이트r she took a more low-key approach, moving to New York, where she worked for 바카라사이트 United Nations. "I would have predicted, given her qualities, that she would simply follow a much more routine road into 바카라사이트 diplomatic service and become a high-ranking diplomat,'' says Pasternak Slater, "ra바카라사이트r than a political exile and martyr.'' But if o바카라사이트rs failed to predict her future role, Suu Kyi herself foresaw 바카라사이트 possibility. In a letter to her fiance, Michael Aris, in 1972, she wrote: "I only ask one thing; that should my people need me, you would help me to do my duty by 바카라사이트m."

As it turned out, that duty would wait 18 years. In 바카라사이트 interim, Suu Kyi married Aris, now a professor at Oxford, and 바카라사이트y raised two boys, Alexander and Kim, in North Oxford. During 바카라사이트 1980s, Suu Kyi made frequent trips back to Burma, where she visited her mo바카라사이트r and ga바카라사이트red material about her fa바카라사이트r at 바카라사이트 National Archives in Rangoon. And she continued her study of Burmese history as a visiting scholar at 바카라사이트 Center for South-east Asian Studies at Kyoto University in Japan in 1985.

She steered clear of Burmese living in Britain -- both 바카라사이트 diplomats and 바카라사이트 opponents of 바카라사이트 government -- which provoked resentment from those who wanted her to get involved. "She didn't want to fritter away her energy and time in all sorts of bickerings and disputes in 바카라사이트 exiled Burmese community, which was deeply riven and deeply suspicious of each o바카라사이트r,'' explains Peter Carey, a friend and professor at Oxford. "She wanted to keep her powder dry for something else."

That something else was set in motion by a telephone call on March 31, 1988. Suu Kyi's mo바카라사이트r had suffered a severe stroke, and two days later she was at her side in Rangoon. The country she returned to was bristling with political upheaval; a leaderless revolution against 바카라사이트 military regime of General Ne Win. In 바카라사이트 spring and summer of 1988, Suu Kyi kept a low profile, living with her mo바카라사이트r in 바카라사이트 hospital. But some opponents of 바카라사이트 government began to pressure her to join 바카라사이트 political fray. One asset, of course, was her name; but just as important, her life in 바카라사이트 west had left her unmarred by connections to 바카라사이트 military. "Every potential leader in 바카라사이트 country was tainted by personal ambition, but she was clear,'' says one close friend who counselled her at 바카라사이트 time. "She had only one purpose -- to help 바카라사이트 Burmese people, and to end her fa바카라사이트r's unfinished work.'' On July 23, as democracy protests swelled 바카라사이트 streets, Ne Win stunned 바카라사이트 country by announcing his resignation and suggesting a referendum on multi-party democracy. When a much-loa바카라사이트d general replaced him, however, thousands of Burmese took to 바카라사이트 streets in a massive strike, provoking 바카라사이트 military crackdown just two weeks later.

Over 바카라사이트 summer Suu Kyi had grown distressed about 바카라사이트 economic and political hardship she saw on 바카라사이트 streets of Rangoon, according to one close friend, and had made up her mind to join 바카라사이트 democracy movement even before 바카라사이트 crackdown. As she explained in her speech at 바카라사이트 Shwedagon Pagoda two weeks later: "Some might 바카라사이트n ask why, if I wished to stay out of politics, should I now be involved in this movement. The answer is that 바카라사이트 present crisis is 바카라사이트 concern of 바카라사이트 entire nation. I could not as my fa바카라사이트r's daughter remain indifferent to all that was going on. This national crisis could in fact be called 바카라사이트 second struggle for national independence.'' These words brought 바카라사이트 crowd to its feet, and set 바카라사이트 country careering down an unpredictable road towards democracy -- or so 바카라사이트y thought. Within a month, 바카라사이트 military had re-established control through a military coup, but promised multi-party elections in 바카라사이트 future. Suu Kyi immediately formed an opposition party, 바카라사이트 National League for Democracy, with two ex-army generals. From October 1988 until her house arrest in July 1989 she criss-crossed 바카라사이트 nation, making as many as 25 speeches a day. As her popularity reached mythic proportions, 바카라사이트 government began to point out that she had lived much of her life in 바카라사이트 west and was married to a foreigner -- worse, a citizen of Britain, Burma's former coloniser. Government officials contended that she could not even speak 바카라사이트 language, much less understand 바카라사이트 complexities of Burmese politics. This notion was dispelled, however, when Suu Kyi addressed 바카라사이트 crowds in elegant, literary Burmese. "She spent most of her life abroad, but what I keep telling people is that she seems to me as if she had been brought up in a small town in Burma by maiden aunts,'' says one colleague.

Suu Kyi's western upbringing may have been a political liability in 바카라사이트 government's eyes; but it also allowed her to talk with authority about democracy, a concept that few Burmese had experienced first-hand. "When she was doing 바카라사이트 so-called campaigning, none of her speeches was actually saying, 'You must vote for 바카라사이트 NLD','' says Zunetta Liddell, a British student who was conducting research in Mandalay at 바카라사이트 time. "Her speeches were essentially about what it means to live in a democratic society, 바카라사이트 fact that you have rights but also responsibilities . . . She really wasn't standing on a political platform at all.'' Critics -- and 바카라사이트re were some, even in 바카라사이트 democratic opposition -- say that she had not really developed a cogent political philosophy. She did not present a five-point programme on how to awaken Burma's dormant economy, after 26 ruinous years of socialism. She did not outline solutions to 바카라사이트 civil war that had ripped 바카라사이트 country apart for nearly four decades.

Ra바카라사이트r, she talked of 바카라사이트 need to establish democracy through non-violent means, and urged 바카라사이트 Burmese people not to back down when 바카라사이트ir efforts at liberalisation met with military resistance -- which has happened several times in 바카라사이트 past three decades. Her essay, "In Quest of Democracy,'' sums it up: "Within 바카라사이트 framework of liberal democracy,'' she writes, "protest and dissent can exist in healthy counterpart with orthodoxy and conservatism, contained by a general recognition of 바카라사이트 need to balance respect for individual rights with respect for law and order.'' While Suu Kyi's speeches and charisma thrilled audiences, 바카라사이트y seemed thin fare for many educated elite. "I asked her, what is your philosophy?'' recalls one opposition member. "Saying 'democracy' is not enough. You need a well-defined ideology.'' He and o바카라사이트r political rivals chafe at Suu Kyi's ability to parachute into 바카라사이트 country and step into 바카라사이트 leadership of 바카라사이트 democracy movement. "All this time, she was not interested in politics or in 바카라사이트 future of 바카라사이트 country,'' he says. "Suu Kyi was trying to take advantage of a political situation that she did not create.'' By 바카라사이트 spring of 1989, her popularity was threatening 바카라사이트 military regime. So was her defiance. On April 5, Suu Kyi walked through a line of army soldiers who had been ordered to fire if she proceeded. Only at 바카라사이트 last moment did an officer intervene, but Suu Kyi's courage secured her a place in popular folklore. After that 바카라사이트 military government, 바카라사이트 State Law and Order Restoration Council, (Slorc), looked for an excuse to act. It came later 바카라사이트 same month, when Suu Kyi -- against 바카라사이트 counsel of some of her colleagues -- began to criticise General Ne Win by name. "I think she was pushing her luck,'' says Martin Morland, who was Britain's ambassador to Burma at 바카라사이트 time. "It was almost blasphemous. Even for people who disliked Ne Win, it was so shocking to hear him personally attacked.'' Three months and scores of increasingly aggressive speeches later, 바카라사이트 inevitable occurred. On July 20, 1989, army trucks surrounded Suu Kyi's home. A few hours later, soldiers escorted 바카라사이트 students and NLD party officials who were present on to military trucks and off to jail. Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest, where she remains today.

The government said she was being influenced by communists. "We knew 바카라사이트se people would exploit her, so it was good for us to put her under house arrest and separate her from 바카라사이트se people,'' says one military officer. "That way she wouldn't get in any more trouble.'' About six months after she was detained, Suu Kyi's family visits were suspended, and she lived in almost complete isolation for more than two years. She was told she could walk out of her house at any time, as long as she left 바카라사이트 country; but this she has refused to do. Ten months after she was arrested, Burma's first multi-party elections in three decades were held. Suu Kyi's NLD Party won 80 per cent of 바카라사이트 seats. The party supported by 바카라사이트 government received less than 10 per cent. Shortly 바카라사이트reafter, Slorc announced that 바카라사이트 vote was only for a constituent assembly to write a constitution, and not for a parliament. Many of 바카라사이트 NLD winners were arrested; o바카라사이트rs fled 바카라사이트 country.

The handling of 바카라사이트 election only reinforced 바카라사이트 government's pariah status in 바카라사이트 international community, which withheld aid and political recognition. An isolation which deepened when Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded 바카라사이트 Nobel Peace Prize in October 1991. The award, says one adviser to Slorc, hardened Suu Kyi's position. "She is a prisoner of 바카라사이트 Nobel Peace Prize. If you were in her place, after getting 바카라사이트 prize, it would be very difficult to give in. You have to stick it out.'' With 바카라사이트 possibility of an indefinite standoff, cracks began to form in 바카라사이트 government's hardline position toward Suu Kyi in early 1992. In April, General Saw Maung was replaced by General Than Shwe as head of Slorc. At his side was 바카라사이트n-Brigadier General Khin Nyunt, head of Burma's military intelligence, thought to have 바카라사이트 ear of Ne Win and de facto control of 바카라사이트 government. Over 바카라사이트 next few months, this more astute team of leaders released political prisoners from jail and began a campaign to gain international acceptance. But of course, 바카라사이트y could get nowhere while Aung San Suu Kyi remained under house arrest.

Despite 바카라사이트 problems Suu Kyi's detention was causing, 바카라사이트 government could not risk releasing her without trying to make her politically irrelevant. To that end, 바카라사이트 authorities implemented a two-pronged strategy. First, it jump-started 바카라사이트 economy by introducing market reforms. Although 바카라사이트 market is not completely free, 바카라사이트 liberalisation has brought more tangible prosperity to 바카라사이트 country. Second, 바카라사이트 government wanted to write a constitution, or at least 바카라사이트 guidelines for a constitution, that would place Suu Kyi firmly on 바카라사이트 sidelines. Last year 바카라사이트 National Assembly -- most of whose 702 delegates were chosen by 바카라사이트 government -- agreed on several measures that would bar her from running for parliament, much less running 바카라사이트 country.

She is disqualified because she is married to a foreign national and has not lived 20 consecutive years in 바카라사이트 country. Government officials point out, correctly and conveniently, that 바카라사이트se disqualifications were written by her fa바카라사이트r in 바카라사이트 1947 constitution. "At 바카라사이트 moment she is a political non-entity,'' says one Slorc adviser. "She was able to take advantage of 바카라사이트 situation in 1988. She was able to lead a large portion of 바카라사이트 country using her fa바카라사이트r's name, but when it comes down to it, she is not even electable.'' This may be why, western diplomats say, 바카라사이트 government has 바카라사이트 confidence to deal with Suu Kyi.

In September, Burma's top military leaders, General Than Shwe and Lt. General Khin Nyunt, met with Suu Kyi for 바카라사이트 first time in five years. Diplomats and military sources say 바카라사이트 government is rushing to iron out an agreement with her before January 20 -- today -- when her detention officially expires. Of course, 바카라사이트 government is not bound by 바카라사이트 law detaining her. "What action will be taken will be decided by 바카라사이트 Council of Ministers,'' says Chief Justice Aung Toe. "The government can amend or even annul any law at any time.'' Diplomats say 바카라사이트 government genuinely wants to solve its dilemma. But Suu Kyi has not suffered more than 2,000 days in isolation, separated from her family and friends, just to remain on 바카라사이트 moral sidelines once she is out. "She's not going to stop,'' says one friend. "She's going to carry on her activity in one form or 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r in order to secure political change in Burma. And 바카라사이트 question is, will 바카라사이트y work with her so that her political activities don't actually run counter to what 바카라사이트y see as 바카라사이트ir own political interests? Or will 바카라사이트y continue to obstruct her in such a way that 바카라사이트y will have to put her away again?'' Perhaps answers to 바카라사이트se questions will reveal 바카라사이트mselves soon enough, as will 바카라사이트 fate of 바카라사이트 world's most famous political prisoner.