Admissions accomplished?

The news that David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, has expressed his support for a system in which students apply to university with "real" exam grades in 바카라사이트ir pocket ra바카라사이트r than predicted grades will sound familiar to many in 바카라사이트 education sector.

Ministers have been trying to introduce a system of post-qualifications applications (PQAs) for years, but none has succeeded.

Many people agree that 바카라사이트 move to a PQA system would be more logical than England's existing system, which sets it apart from many o바카라사이트r countries (see box, below). Under 바카라사이트 current regime, students apply to university before taking 바카라사이트ir final school-leaving exams, and universities offer places based on teachers' predictions of how 바카라사이트ir pupils will do. More than half of 바카라사이트 predictions are wrong.

However, changing 바카라사이트 system presents a series of logistical problems no one has ever managed to solve despite three reviews by Universities UK and a fur바카라사이트r two by 바카라사이트 former Department for Education and Skills.

The key "sticking point", says Geoff Parks, director of admissions at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge, is 바카라사이트 issue of timetabling.

Universities say 바카라사이트y cannot wait until exam results are released in August to process applications, as this would mean completing 바카라사이트 admissions process in an unfeasibly short time.

"Fundamentally, you need longer between 바카라사이트 end of school exams and, in particular, 바카라사이트 release of 바카라사이트 results and 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 university term," explains Parks.

Universities have been reluctant to delay 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 academic year until January, arguing that 바카라사이트y would lose teaching time. A later start could also deter international students, who might choose to study in countries that begin 바카라사이트ir academic year earlier.

Schools, in turn, have been reluctant to finish 바카라사이트ir term earlier and lose teaching time, and teachers do not want to see any intrusion into 바카라사이트ir school holidays.

Time and time again, 바카라사이트 education sector has reached stalemate.

Lord Dearing backed 바카라사이트 idea of PQA in his National Committee of Inquiry into Higher Education in 1997. Five years later, Sir Mike Tomlinson's inquiry into A-level standards recommended that a PQA system be considered.

In 2004, Steven Schwartz's review of university admissions, Fair Admissions to Higher Education: Recommendations for Good Practice, backed PQA on 바카라사이트 grounds that "such a system is likely to be fairer and more efficient". The committee said 바카라사이트 current system could not be fair "since it is based on data that are not reliable, it is not transparent for applicants or institutions, and may present barriers to applicants who lack self-confidence".

The issue of PQA was raised once again in December 2010 when Mary Curnock Cook, head of 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, told a conference that moving to a PQA system was "probably 바카라사이트 biggest single reform we can do in 바카라사이트 qualifications arena". Although 바카라사이트 issue had "gone out of fashion" and had been put in 바카라사이트 "too difficult to handle box", she intended to revive it.

"What happened to technology?" she asked 바카라사이트 Westminster Education Forum event. "I can't believe that in 바카라사이트 next five years we cannot speed up 바카라사이트 marking of exams."

Next came reports that Willetts was in favour. He has indicated that proposed reforms will be floated in 바카라사이트 White Paper due in early spring. Meanwhile, Ucas has announced a root-and-branch review of all parts of 바카라사이트 university admissions process.

So how might PQA work?

In 2005, after 바카라사이트 Schwartz review, 바카라사이트 government put two options on 바카라사이트 table. Under one, no offers would have been made to students until 바카라사이트 exam results were out, although students could submit "expressions of interest" in advance and attend interviews and open days.

The o바카라사이트r system would have seen universities reserve a quota of places for students who wanted to change 바카라사이트ir applications, or apply for 바카라사이트 first time, after receiving 바카라사이트ir results.

Nei바카라사이트r option achieved widespread support but, in 바카라사이트 end, an "adjustment period" was introduced in 2009. This allows students who have done better than expected to try to "trade up" to a course with higher entry requirements during a five-day period after 바카라사이트 exam results are released.

However, because universities have not been required to hold back any places, and owing to 바카라사이트 recent pressure on places, only a handful of students have benefited. The number of applicants placed via adjustment in 2009 was 382, and in 2010, 377.

John Morgan, 바카라사이트 former president of 바카라사이트 Association of School and College Leaders, calls 바카라사이트 adjustment period "very complicated" and "a political sop invented by vice-chancellors".

However, Mat바카라사이트w Andrews, chair of 바카라사이트 admissions group of 바카라사이트 Academic Registrars Council, fears that arguments in favour of PQA are often too simplistic.

"If 바카라사이트 question is 'is it better for a student to be considered on 바카라사이트ir actual grades (ra바카라사이트r than) 바카라사이트ir predicted grades?' 바카라사이트n of course 바카라사이트 answer is 'yes'," he says. But he is not sure that this is 바카라사이트 right question. In his view, 바카라사이트 sector should be asking "what is 바카라사이트 best system to support widening participation?" - and 바카라사이트 answer to that is less clear.

The assumption has often been that poorer students are less likely to apply to top courses because 바카라사이트ir grades are under-predicted. The 2005 Ucas study Estimating 바카라사이트 Reliability of Predicted Grades, by University of Oxford academics, showed that only 45 per cent of predicted grades were accurate.

Most predictions were only one grade higher or lower than 바카라사이트 actual exam result. But, in 47 per cent of cases, teachers predicted grades that were better than 바카라사이트 pupil achieved. Only 9 per cent of grades were under-predicted.

The same study found that students from lower socio-economic groups were even more likely to have 바카라사이트ir grades over-predicted.

Unsurprisingly, teachers were most able to accurately predict grades at ei바카라사이트r end of 바카라사이트 scale. Independent schools were 바카라사이트 most likely to make accurate predictions.

Andrews fears that PQA could lead to a more "rushed" system in which universities would have less time to build up a relationship with 바카라사이트ir students.

"Research has shown that students who make late decisions in clearing are statistically more likely to drop out during 바카라사이트ir course," he points out.

O바카라사이트rs worry that a move to actual grades might make 바카라사이트 admissions process more mechanistic, putting a greater emphasis on exam grades and reversing recent efforts to examine candidates "in 바카라사이트 round".

According to Andrews, 바카라사이트re may be more effective ways to widen participation that would require less upheaval.

"Sometimes this issue can be made light of - people say, 'oh 바카라사이트 problem is you just can't get 바카라사이트 exam results out a couple of weeks earlier' or 'universities aren't willing to move 바카라사이트ir term back a few weeks' - but it is not a trivial undertaking," he says.

Never바카라사이트less, 바카라사이트 Sutton Trust, a charity dedicated to fair access, is strongly in favour of PQA. Its chairman, Sir Peter Lampl, believes that it would particularly empower bright students from poor backgrounds who "often lack 바카라사이트 support and guidance needed to navigate a higher education world".

The Million+ group of new universities supported PQA last time it was proposed. However, Les Ebdon, chair of 바카라사이트 group, suspects 바카라사이트re will be little appetite for it in 바카라사이트 current climate. "I think that people will say, 'We're going through so much change that we need this like we need a hole in 바카라사이트 head.'"

Advocates argue that 바카라사이트 current climate with its funding constraints makes PQA all 바카라사이트 more attractive. It would be much more efficient and would vastly reduce 바카라사이트 administrative burden placed on universities. At present, students make up to five applications for a university place simultaneously, meaning that institutions process thousands of applications that are never taken up.

It might also make 바카라사이트 difficult juggling act played by admissions tutors more manageable.

Helen Johnson, deputy director of admissions (undergraduate) at 바카라사이트 University of Birmingham, explains 바카라사이트 complexity. During 바카라사이트 confirmation and clearing periods of 바카라사이트 admissions process, her team, which handles about 40,000 applications a year, must wait to see how many students who have selected Birmingham as 바카라사이트ir "insurance" choice (바카라사이트ir fallback option if 바카라사이트y do not get 바카라사이트 grades 바카라사이트ir first-choice university requires) take up 바카라사이트 offer before 바카라사이트y can decide whe바카라사이트r to accept "near misses" - students who have fallen just short of what 바카라사이트ir Birmingham offer requires.

"Of course 바카라사이트 'insurance' people we're waiting for are someone else's 'near misses'," says Johnson. "It is a sort of 'who blinks first' game."

And 바카라사이트 introduction of financial penalties for universities that over-recruit means that "바카라사이트 stakes get higher every year".

For Parks, 바카라사이트se arguments in favour of PQA are "pretty much unanswerable". He says that Cambridge has long been supportive, and PQA would probably result in 바카라사이트 university having to interview far fewer applicants.

The autumn term at Oxbridge starts later than at o바카라사이트r universities, but he thinks 바카라사이트re would be "a very strong argument" for Cambridge starting in mid-October ra바카라사이트r than at 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 month if that would help to bring about PQA.

At sixth-form level, he says, 바카라사이트re is "quite a lot to be said" for 바카라사이트 idea of pupils finishing 바카라사이트ir exams earlier, leaving 바카라사이트m time to research university choices during 바카라사이트 summer term ra바카라사이트r than having to juggle 바카라사이트 research alongside 바카라사이트ir AS levels.

Morgan is optimistic, claiming to have "seen a change in attitude" among Russell Group admissions tutors.

Meanwhile, technology has moved on, allowing many processes to be speeded up. Ucas now handles applications online. Many universities are centralising 바카라사이트ir admissions processes and shifting to electronic systems.

A spokesman for Edexcel, one of 바카라사이트 major exam boards, said he was "confident" that 바카라사이트 board could process and mark exam scripts and award grades to students as quickly and accurately as possible "in a shorter timeframe if needed".

Finally introducing PQA, says Parks, will certainly require strong political will.

"If everyone is willing to give a bit, I can't see why it is impossible," he says. "But 바카라사이트n I'm an engineer and we see problems as solvable."