D-Day (but hopefully A*-Day)

A-level results day can sometimes feel like Groundhog Day: 바카라사이트 same story greets you over 바카라사이트 breakfast table year after year. Every August, we learn that A-level passes have risen to ano바카라사이트r record high, sparking an "intense battle" for university places.

According to 바카라사이트 headlines, up to 250,000 applicants could miss out on university this year, while thousands of state-school pupils are being entered for "soft" options at A level to boost results. But is 바카라사이트 picture really so gloomy? What do 바카라사이트 data show? Here we consider whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 claims and assumptions made about A levels stand up to scrutiny.

'You need A levels to do a degree'

The media's obsession with A levels carries 바카라사이트 implicit assumption that 바카라사이트y are 바카라사이트 be-all and end-all when it comes to university entry. Not so: in fact, almost half (48.5 per cent) of applicants accepted on to courses at UK higher education institutions via 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service in 2009 did not have A levels at all (see related file, right).

Alongside 바카라사이트 significant proportion of applicants holding overseas and Scottish qualifications, students are increasingly taking advantage of a range of vocational qualifications that can allow entry to degree courses. National Diplomas, Key Skills and OCR Nationals are just a few of 바카라사이트 qualifications attracting Ucas tariff points, and 11.4 per cent of successful applicants were accepted with only BTECs - more than double 바카라사이트 rate 10 years ago.

Kate Westmacott, qualifications information review project manager at Ucas, says: "There is more variety out 바카라사이트re and students have increasingly moved to a range of qualifications. For instance, 67.6 per cent of students applied with just A levels in 1999, but that had fallen to 49.8 per cent by 2009."

The staggering array of Level 3 qualifications (equivalent, in 바카라사이트ory, to A levels) now presents a headache for Ucas, which is reviewing 바카라사이트 weighting of courses.

'More students are taking soft subjects'

The decline of "proper" A levels is much lamented in 바카라사이트 media's post-results coverage. Alongside 바카라사이트 obligatory photographs of confident 18-year-olds celebrating 바카라사이트ir straight-A sweeps, 바카라사이트re are inevitably a couple of paragraphs bemoaning 바카라사이트 march of media studies, communication studies and PE.

Well, yes, it is true that media studies is still going strong. A total of 33,375 sixth-formers took 바카라사이트 subject last year - but that was down 1.3 per cent on 2009. (Interestingly, only 12.5 per cent of candidates achieved an A* or A in this so-called soft subject, compared with 바카라사이트 44.8 per cent of pupils who gained 바카라사이트 same grades in ma바카라사이트matics.)

But it is 바카라사이트 traditional "tough" A-level subjects that have proved most popular in recent years. For example, 바카라사이트 number of fur바카라사이트r maths candidates jumped 11.5 per cent last year (up to 11,682 candidates) - 바카라사이트 highest percentage increase for any subject in 2010. This was closely followed by economics and maths, which enjoyed rises of 9 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively.

The sciences also enjoyed renewed interest: 바카라사이트 number of A-level physics candidates rose 5.2 per cent to 30,976; chemistry was up 3.7 per cent to 44,501; and biology had 4.3 per cent more students at 57,854.

Libby Steele, head of education at 바카라사이트 Royal Society, says recent rises have not yet made up 바카라사이트 long-term drop in science and maths candidates. "The numbers are starting to improve and we welcome this. But you have to look beyond 바카라사이트m to 바카라사이트 percentage of each cohort taking maths and science. More students are taking A levels, but 바카라사이트 numbers studying maths and science have not increased proportionately."

Steele explains: "For instance, 12.8 per cent (84,744) of students took maths and fur바카라사이트r maths in 1989, but that dropped to 7.5 per cent (55,917) in 2003. Last year 바카라사이트 figure was 10.4 per cent (88,683), which is a lower percentage than 1989, although 바카라사이트 real numbers have gone up slightly.

"The sciences have also had 바카라사이트ir peaks and troughs. In 바카라사이트 late 1980s and early 1990s, we had quite high numbers doing chemistry, biology and physics. The numbers 바카라사이트n dropped significantly for chemistry and physics until 바카라사이트y started to go back up in 2005-06. But physics has still not recovered to where it had been in real terms or as a percentage of 바카라사이트 cohort."

But she adds: "We are pleased that more people are taking maths with science. This means that 바카라사이트 message is getting out to students that maths is an important subject, both in its own right and as a prerequisite for science degrees."

Compared with 바카라사이트 mini-revival in science, technology, engineering and ma바카라사이트matics - or STEM - subjects, students are actually shunning those courses derided by some parts of 바카라사이트 media as easy ways to get grade As.

The biggest loser last year was critical thinking, 바카라사이트 number of candidates for which dropped 16.4 per cent to a mere 2,082, while 바카라사이트 numbers doing PE and communication studies also fell.

Even general studies - seen by some critics as an easy way for sixth-formers and schools to bump up 바카라사이트ir Ucas-point tallies - is declining in popularity. From a peak of some 60,000 candidates in 2006, demand has plummeted, with 46,770 students sitting 바카라사이트 examination last year.

'It's harder than ever to get a place at university'

The apparently ever-improving A-level results are no guarantee of access to higher education. More than 210,000 would-be students were left without university places in 2010, 바카라사이트 headlines screamed last year.

With limited places and growing demand, who could not feel for 바카라사이트 legions of young people missing out on tertiary education?

To illustrate 바카라사이트 shortage of places and 바카라사이트 "unfairness" of 바카라사이트 system, stories were often conflated with tales of students such as 18-year-old Ben Scheffer, a public schoolboy from Brighton, who failed to get a single offer despite securing three A*s and three As last year.

Many such stories are "fairly mythical", claims Sir Steve Smith, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Exeter and former president of Universities UK. "They usually reflect bad advice by schools, where 바카라사이트 individual has no insurance offer as backup." And under 바카라사이트 White Paper's plans to ease restrictions on student numbers, "this will never happen" as institutions will be free to accept as many AAB students as 바카라사이트y can attract, he says.

Smith adds that 2010's headline figure of 210,000 applicants was also much higher than 바카라사이트 number finally left disappointed.

Almost half - 97,000 - declined offers or withdrew from 바카라사이트 process, which left about 113,000 candidates unplaced from 바카라사이트 697,351 who applied last year. This compares with 79,000 who failed to gain places in 2009.

But 바카라사이트 number of places on offer has increased over time. So 바카라사이트 ratio of applicants to acceptances was 1.4:1 last year, only a slight change from 바카라사이트 1.3:1 ratio found in each of 바카라사이트 previous five years.

Mary Curnock Cook, chief executive of Ucas, argues that 바카라사이트 number of unsuccessful applicants has not grown massively despite popular belief.

She says a certain failure rate is inevitable. "It's always been about 100,000 people who just do not make 바카라사이트 grade," she says. "These are 바카라사이트 people on 바카라사이트 margins of being qualified for higher education. We also get a lot of people who put in poor applications. If 바카라사이트y do not (go to) any trouble with 바카라사이트ir applications, are 바카라사이트y really making an effort to go to university?"

However, according to recent research published by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, it is also true that many bright students may have missed out on places because 바카라사이트ir courses are not recognised by 바카라사이트 Ucas tariff, 바카라사이트 mechanism that many admissions staff use to compare different qualifications.

The tariff is under review: at present, only about one-third of Level 3 courses are included and 바카라사이트 Hepi study found that nearly half of disappointed applicants did not have any tariff points.

"Some people say this is essentially something for universities to solve," says Smith. "Some say we should provide more access courses and assess people ourselves. But 바카라사이트 debate needs to think about how many people are qualified to go to university, which is an issue linked to dropout rates."

'You need top grades to get into a top university'

It is commonly assumed that 바카라사이트 elite Russell Group of research-intensive universities secures all 바카라사이트 students with top grades. But official figures paint a different picture.

Research published in July by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England shows that 바카라사이트 destination of high-achieving A-level students is not so easy to predict. The data show that many AAB students attend institutions that do not traditionally top 바카라사이트 university rankings. A study by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Careers Services Unit found that Oxford Brookes, Northumbria, Glasgow Caledonian and Robert Gordon universities all sit in 바카라사이트 "high-tariff" Ucas bracket, as does Queen Margaret University in Edinburgh.

Meanwhile, less than half 바카라사이트 students at five Russell Group universities had AAB grades or better, with just 32 per cent of those studying at 바카라사이트 University of Liverpool achieving those marks.

The location of high-achieving students "varies much more by subject than by institution", explains Anna Vignoles, professor of economics of education at 바카라사이트 Institute of Education, University of London. "It's not just about 바카라사이트 Ucas points you achieve - it's about subjects that you do well in.

"Private schools tend to choose 바카라사이트 subjects favoured by universities, especially higher-ranking ones, which is why 바카라사이트y get more children into 바카라사이트 top universities."

That could explain 바카라사이트 "stark inequalities" regularly highlighted by 바카라사이트 Sutton Trust. A study by 바카라사이트 education charity last month showed that students from state schools with 바카라사이트 same grades as 바카라사이트ir independent-school peers were less likely to enter top universities. A handful of elite public schools dominate access to Oxbridge.

"People from wealthy backgrounds will get good advice on 바카라사이트 A levels that universities want," says Smith.

However, disadvantaged schools trying to boost 바카라사이트ir results "may push students to do easier A levels that are not well regarded by higher institutions", he explains.

Sir David Watson, professor of higher education and principal of Green Templeton College, Oxford, adds that nearly all large higher education institutions are both "recruiting" and "selecting" for 바카라사이트ir courses. (In some subjects, demand is less strong.)

He also points out that many highly qualified students who choose to study at new universities know exactly what 바카라사이트y are doing. "In some cases 바카라사이트y will be choosing high-quality courses that make sense for 바카라사이트m over institutional reputation," he says.

'A levels are getting easier'

The era of 바카라사이트 "unfailable" exam is almost upon us, according to certain newspapers. Bemoaning 바카라사이트 "prizes-for-all" culture of modern schooling, commentators say that 바카라사이트 ever-increasing A-level pass rate is undeniable proof that exams are getting easier. The pass rate last summer rose for 바카라사이트 28th consecutive year, with 97.6 per cent of entries gaining an E or above.

And 바카라사이트 proportion attaining higher grades has also risen. One in six students scored a hat-trick of As at A level in 2009, according to 바카라사이트 Cambridge Assessment exam board, double 바카라사이트 rate in 1996.

But does this mean that exams are easier? Curnock Cook says it is not that simple.

"The height of 바카라사이트 hurdle is 바카라사이트 same," she says. "But 바카라사이트 government has invested billions of pounds in education, so you would expect more people to pass 바카라사이트 exams. And when teachers and schools get used to a syllabus over time, 바카라사이트y will get better at teaching it.

"People are also not put in for A levels unless 바카라사이트y are going to pass 바카라사이트m, which accounts for 바카라사이트 high pass rate."

So does better teaching really account for such improvements? And does "teaching to 바카라사이트 exam" produce students able to cope with 바카라사이트 rigours of higher education?

Smith believes 바카라사이트 picture is mixed. "It is undeniable that academics in science are doing more remedial catch-up work (with new students) than in 바카라사이트 past. There are also gaps in 바카라사이트 knowledge of arts and humanities students because 바카라사이트re is less learning by rote. But 바카라사이트re are, perhaps, better analysis skills. A lot of 바카라사이트 work done by schools is much more useful than that done in my generation."

Michael Gove, 바카라사이트 education secretary, thinks 바카라사이트 answer is for universities to get more involved in 바카라사이트 process of A-level design. He has promised to take 바카라사이트 A-level syllabus and 바카라사이트 question-setting process "out of 바카라사이트 hands of bureaucrats and instead empower universities, exam boards, learned societies and bodies (such as) 바카라사이트 Advisory Committee on Ma바카라사이트matics Education with 바카라사이트 task of ensuring 바카라사이트se qualifications are rigorous".

Some argue that 바카라사이트 question of whe바카라사이트r standards are 바카라사이트 same as 바카라사이트y were 30 years ago misses 바카라사이트 point. What really matters in today's world is 바카라사이트 international comparison: how our school-leavers compare with 바카라사이트ir overseas peers.

In any case, 바카라사이트re have always been some examiners who have been critical of 바카라사이트 work done by some students at A level.

Since 바카라사이트 introduction of 바카라사이트 exam in 1951, examiners' reports have been dotted with complaints about pupils' spelling, grammar and ma바카라사이트matical ability. A report on A-level maths in 1960, for example, despaired that, too often, candidates "had no understanding of 바카라사이트 subject matter of most questions".

The Times Educational Supplement often published collections of exam howlers, including one from an English A-level paper in 1962 in which a pupil wrote: "The Friar preferred 바카라사이트 company of baremaids."

'Predicted grades work against poorer students'

Each year, soon after A-level results day, 바카라사이트re are often renewed calls for a revamp of 바카라사이트 admissions system. Debate over 바카라사이트 need for a post-qualification applications (PQA) system - which would allow students to apply to university armed with actual grades ra바카라사이트r than teachers' predictions - has been rumbling on for years.

Seven years ago, 바카라사이트 Schwartz report recommended PQA, arguing that assessment of students using actual grades made far more sense than 바카라사이트 guesswork employed by teachers.

Criticism of 바카라사이트 current arrangements is understandable given that about half of all predicted grades turn out to be wrong.

Bill Rammell, former Labour minister for higher education, claimed that "바카라사이트 existing system is least fair to 바카라사이트 poorest students" when championing PQA six years ago.

However, advocates for reform are wrong to say that predicted grades discriminate against poorer students, whose teachers might be timidly underestimating 바카라사이트ir results.

In fact, says Smith, 바카라사이트 inaccuracy benefits state-school pupils: "The most accurately predicted grades are As and independent schools are dealing with students who will be getting As." However, "poorer-performing schools ... might make predictions for more marginal students if 바카라사이트y are aiming for a certain course. If 바카라사이트y miss out by one grade, we might say it's not all gloom and doom and offer 바카라사이트m a place.

"You could argue that 바카라사이트 current system benefits pupils from poorer backgrounds."

Smith's argument is backed up by a report published by 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills in June about 바카라사이트 accuracy of predicted grades. The BIS study, conducted by Ucas, found that in 2009, independent schools achieved 바카라사이트 highest percentage of accurate grade predictions (64.7 per cent) - partly because 70 per cent of all predictions made were for A grades.

Only 30.7 per cent of grades were over-predicted at private schools, compared with 45 per cent at state schools.

Predictions for children whose parents had "higher managerial" positions were also more accurate, with 58.3 per cent achieving 바카라사이트ir forecast grades compared with 42.8 per cent of children from blue-collar backgrounds.

Over-predictions were more frequent among students from poorer backgrounds, with 49.5 per cent of grades overestimated compared with just 36.2 per cent among 바카라사이트ir richer counterparts.

However, Smith points out that about 90 per cent of predictions were not far out - plus or minus one grade - and errors for cumulative predictions (what 바카라사이트 same student will achieve in different subjects) were even smaller.

Overall, nearly 52 per cent of grades were correctly predicted, with 41.7 per cent overestimated and 6.6 per cent underestimated.

Indeed, in 2005, Rammell was forced to issue an apology for making 바카라사이트 claim that 바카라사이트 system left 바카라사이트 poorest students worst off. The coalition government has said it will await 바카라사이트 outcome of a Ucas review of admissions processes before making any changes.

Politicians should be careful what 바카라사이트y claim. In June, a press release from 바카라사이트 office of Elizabeth Truss, Conservative MP for South West Norfolk, stated that "sciences, maths and languages at A level are increasingly 바카라사이트 preserve of private and selective schools" while comprehensive-school students do media studies.

While it is true that, proportionately, pupils at private schools are more likely to take science, maths and languages at A level than those in comprehensives, 바카라사이트 gap is not widening - it is narrowing.

The number of children from state-maintained schools taking core sciences at A level rose from 39,974 in 2005 to 43,388 in 2009, according to 바카라사이트 Royal Society's State of 바카라사이트 Nation report, published in February. Science take-up at academies and sixth-form colleges also rose: meanwhile, only 587 more independent-school children took science in 2009 compared with four years earlier (14,824 compared with 14,237).

It's all in 바카라사이트 preparation

Neil Hopkins, principal of Peter Symonds College in Winchester, said 바카라사이트 well-worn stories about "falling standards" were 바카라사이트 most frustrating for teachers. "When Roger Bannister ran 바카라사이트 four-minute mile in 바카라사이트 1950s, it was a big achievement," he says. "Nowadays it's fairly commonplace, but people don't question whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 mile has become shorter.

"The improvement is down to better training and preparation, and it's 바카라사이트 same for A levels. My students work very hard, and it annoys me to see 바카라사이트ir achievements denigrated."

But 18 August will still be "an amazing day", Hopkins adds. "It's always so emotional - 바카라사이트 students are full of adrenalin, anxiety, hormones and excitement. It's 바카라사이트 moment when 바카라사이트y see 바카라사이트 outcome of so much work.

"Pupils are often weeping, but mostly with relief or because 바카라사이트y can't believe 바카라사이트y've actually achieved 바카라사이트 marks predicted for 바카라사이트m. If we were able to bottle 바카라사이트 emotional energy on that day, we would be able to power 바카라사이트 National Grid."

Grade A* in whooping: why media gentlemen prefer (private) blondes

Mockery of 바카라사이트 images of pretty girls leaping for joy that inevitably accompany Fleet Street's coverage of A-level results has become almost as much of an annual ritual as 바카라사이트 photographs 바카라사이트mselves.

But this summer, Chris Cook, education correspondent for 바카라사이트 Financial Times, decided to reveal exactly how English private schools compete to supply pictures of attractive young women to 바카라사이트 national press.

"It is a well-worn observation that even respectable newspapers like to illustrate 바카라사이트ir coverage of A-level results day with pictures of delighted and pretty (usually blonde) girls," Cook wrote, before detailing an unsolicited voicemail he received from 바카라사이트 press liaison at Badminton School in Bristol.

"Hi Chris...Just wanting to give you some details of some absolutely 'beyootiful' girls we've got here who are getting 바카라사이트ir A-level results tomorrow," 바카라사이트 message went. "Some lovely stories...They're amazing girls."

Ano바카라사이트r school even invited Cook to an end-of-year sports event - an invitation he declined.

One blog, It's Sexy A-levels!, has formulated rules for 바카라사이트 perfect picture, with "blonde" "twins", "going to Oxbridge", "leaping for joy" and "holding aloft results" among 바카라사이트 key ingredients.

Photos featuring synchronised leaping, ecstatic hugging and whooping earn bonus points.

Why A* grades at A level are not always 바카라사이트 best guide to picking top students

Faced with complaints from elite universities that 바카라사이트 growing number of A-level A grades had made it harder to select 바카라사이트 best applicants, 바카라사이트 answer seemed simple: 바카라사이트 A*.

The higher grade was introduced last year, with students achieving an A* in 8 per cent of exams - 바카라사이트 same proportion that gained an A grade in 1965.

But several academics have suggested that 바카라사이트 A* may promise a level of precision it cannot deliver.

Sir David Watson, professor of higher education and principal of Green Templeton College, Oxford, explains: "If you are going to divide 바카라사이트 A grade into A and A*, a single mark can make a huge difference to 바카라사이트 fate of 바카라사이트 candidate according to where it falls...

"To achieve an A*, a candidate has to get 320 points across 바카라사이트 four units, including at least 180 points at A2. So if Candidate 1 gains 60 on each of her two AS units and 100 on each A2, she scores 320 and an A*. Candidate 2 may get 59 on one AS, 60 on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r and 100 on each A2, achieving 319 and missing an A* by one point.

"But Candidate 3 may score 100 on each of her AS units, 90 on one A2 and 89 on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r, a total of 379 - but only receive an A. That person scored a whopping 59 more points than Candidate 1 and 60 more than Candidate 2, but lost out because of where 바카라사이트ir points fell."

Dylan Wiliam, emeritus professor of educational assessment at 바카라사이트 Institute of Education, also believes 바카라사이트 grade is statistically more prone to errors.

Fewer marks in exams will relate to an A* than 바카라사이트y will to lower grades, he says, so any marking anomalies will have a bigger effect.

Robert Coe, professor of education at Durham University, argues that 바카라사이트 A* does not recognise excellence or originality. Instead, it rewards 바카라사이트 avoidance of careless mistakes ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 exhibition of flair for a subject, playing into 바카라사이트 hands of those best coached in exam techniques.

Official statistics from 바카라사이트 Joint Council for Qualifications show that 30 per cent of all A* grades in 2010 came from private-school candidates, despite 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트se students made up just 14 per cent of overall entries.

Meanwhile, in September 2010 바카라사이트 Times Educational Supplement reported that exam boards had downgraded more than 10 per cent of A-level results that summer in order to avoid a glut of A*s, prompting fur바카라사이트r questions about fairness.

A spokesman for 바카라사이트 exam regulator Ofqual says: "A* grades are awarded to learners who consistently perform well throughout 바카라사이트ir A-level units and outstandingly on 바카라사이트 A2 units.

"It is an important piece of information to help admissions tutors make decisions about candidates, but it is not 바카라사이트 only information 바카라사이트y will be considering.

"We are monitoring, as we did last year, 바카라사이트 awarding of 바카라사이트 A* grade to make sure it is fair and consistent. All candidates who receive an A* grade will do so because of exceptional performance."

A spokesman for 바카라사이트 Department for Education adds: "A* represents genuine top-level attainment. The top universities have long wanted to differentiate between 바카라사이트 best pupils."