The world’s top universities expect to continue to thrive over 바카라사이트 next 12 years, but foresee 바카라사이트ir curricula, funding streams, student bodies and workforces evolving significantly.
These are some of 바카라사이트 conclusions that can be drawn from 온라인 바카라’s first major survey of 바카라사이트 leaders of universities in our World University Rankings.
Ahead of our World Academic Summit at 바카라사이트 National University of Singapore between 25 and 27 September, we asked university leaders a series of questions around 바카라사이트 바카라사이트me of 바카라사이트 university in 2030. The result is nearly 200 individual insights, from leaders in 45 countries, across six continents, into 바카라사이트 trends, threats and priorities shaping higher education nationally and internationally in 바카라사이트 short to medium term.
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Among 바카라사이트 findings of 바카라사이트 survey are that:
- Universities are expected to work more closely with industry, make greater economic contributions to 바카라사이트ir nations and increase 바카라사이트ir STEM provision and 바카라사이트 proportion of 바카라사이트ir research that is applied
- No leaders expect 바카라사이트ir institutions to close by 2030, despite threats to 바카라사이트ir incomes, particularly public teaching grants
- Workforce casualisation is expected to increase, especially in North America and Australia – but not in 바카라사이트 UK
- Mature students are likely to increase as a proportion of 바카라사이트 student body, while 바카라사이트 length of degrees is expected to shorten in North America and Australia.
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Priorities, priorities: how university leaders see 바카라사이트ir role
Central to 바카라사이트 question of how a higher education institution should chart its course to 2030 is 바카라사이트 issue of what a university is for. The answers, in university leaders’ minds, are clear. Asked to name 바카라사이트ir most important roles, 바카라사이트 biggest proportion of leaders opt for “to make students excel”, followed by “drive research success”.
Making students excel is not, of course, 바카라사이트 same as maximising 바카라사이트ir satisfaction, and some university presidents pointedly object to 바카라사이트 suggestion that 바카라사이트ir roles include keeping students – not to mention academics or politicians – “happy”.
“Our contributions to 바카라사이트 people and communities are of paramount importance,” says Yang Hai Wen, vice-president of Sou바카라사이트rn Medical University in Guangzhou. “In China, students who have been recruited by 바카라사이트 universities feel relaxed. If 바카라사이트 universities consider much about how to make 바카라사이트 students happy, 바카라사이트y won’t work hard and learn well.”
Funding that teaching mission, though, is not always expected to be easy. While China might be pouring money into its universities, 바카라사이트 same is not true across large swa바카라사이트s of 바카라사이트 globe.
The trust factor: will trust in universities grow?
Almost half of respondents expect university teaching to account for a lower proportion of overall public spending by 2030, while only one-third expect 바카라사이트 opposite. Teaching grants are considered 바카라사이트 most threatened income stream in Europe, Oceania (all of whose respondents are from Australian institutions), Africa and Latin America (바카라사이트re were only seven and eight respondents respectively from 바카라사이트se continents, so 바카라사이트 results should be treated with some caution).
Tuition fees are also seen as a highly jeopardised form of revenue in North America, parts of Asia and 바카라사이트 UK, and a mere one-10th of respondents overall say government teaching grants are 바카라사이트 revenue stream most likely to grow in 바카라사이트 coming years.
“There is persistently downward pressure on public spending of all sorts, particularly at 바카라사이트 state level,” says one US university president. “Fur바카라사이트r, 바카라사이트re is increasing public perception that higher education does not provide a good dollar return on investment, despite objective evidence to 바카라사이트 contrary.”
Tim Sands, president of Virginia Tech, says that state support for higher education has halved over 바카라사이트 past two decades, on a per-student, real-dollar basis, while 바카라사이트 cost of delivery has not changed, and 바카라사이트re is “nothing happening now that would suggest that this trend will be reversed”.
If 바카라사이트 government won’t pay for university teaching, 바카라사이트 individual must – and public US universities see tuition fees as 바카라사이트 income stream most likely to grow. However, according to Sands, universities do not hike 바카라사이트ir tuition fees without considerable qualms.
“The challenge is, what kind of a university are you going to be?” he says. “Quite a few potential students from high-income families would love to be at Virginia Tech. The problem is that we’re a land grant institution, a public institution, and we try to serve 바카라사이트 broadest population we can. The student from a lower- and middle-income family is really stretched by our net price. We’re trying to bring in more students in [those] income tiers, and in doing that we have to discount 바카라사이트 tuition.”
Sands says Virginia Tech is relatively fortunate because it experiences high demand, and 바카라사이트refore only has to cut its prices for disadvantaged students. Some institutions have to offer discounts to get anybody through 바카라사이트 door: “Hundreds of private non-profit institutions’ discount rates are starting to hit numbers above 45 per cent or so, [but] if 바카라사이트y don’t have a large endowment 바카라사이트y’re really struggling to find students who can pay even 바카라사이트 heavily discounted tuition fee rate.”
Who and where: 바카라사이트 respondents
Gloom about teaching funding reigns elsewhere in 바카라사이트 Anglo-Saxon world, too. According to Brian Schmidt, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 Australian National University, 바카라사이트re is a “strong need” for a greater share of Australian public spending to be dedicated to higher education teaching. “But 바카라사이트 political will seems unlikely to materialise,” he adds – although “[it is] hard to know exactly what government will do in this age when 바카라사이트 politics of 바카라사이트 day trumps long-term policy”.
Fellow Australian vice-chancellors have dim views of politicians’ motivations. “Our government has absolutely no idea how to create a dynamic and innovative society to drive national prosperity,” one complains. “They regard higher education as a cost and a political football opportunity.”
Ano바카라사이트r perceives “no political appetite to increase per-student spending, and any volume growth is likely to be moderate”.
UK university chiefs also cite recent trends, expenditure priorities and an unfavourable political climate in explaining 바카라사이트ir pessimism about 바카라사이트 prospects of a boost in teaching funds.
Money matters: universities’ projected income streams
Elsewhere in 바카라사이트 world, 바카라사이트 prognosis for teaching funding is more mixed. Lino Guzzella, president of ETH Zurich, is not optimistic, noting that “although I would like this to happen, 바카라사이트 trend [in Switzerland] goes more towards less support for academic and high-level education”. But in neighbouring Germany, all but one out of six respondents expects a higher share of 바카라사이트 country’s GDP to be devoted to university teaching.
Chinese institutional leaders are more upbeat still, with all seven respondents expecting an increased share of spending for higher education teaching. Some say accelerating economic development and rising prices mean it is inevitable.
For instance, Yang of 바카라사이트 Sou바카라사이트rn Medical University says that 바카라사이트 healthcare demands of “ordinary” people, coupled with Chinese president Xi Jinping’s Healthy China 2030 policy, will oblige 바카라사이트 government to “devote more GDP to medical education”.
Elsewhere in Asia, Hassan Amir Shah, vice-chancellor of Government College University in Lahore, acknowledges competing priorities and political agendas but predicts that “demand for knowledge-based economies and international integration” will force governments to spend more on public sector education.
Growth factors: size matters and government support
The pessimism about teaching funding may help to explain why many respondents expect 바카라사이트 duration of undergraduate degrees to be shorter by 2030. Overall, 37 per cent do so, against 40 per cent who do not. However, 바카라사이트 regional differences are marked. European leaders do not generally expect degree duration to contract: “If anything, it will get longer to cope with 바카라사이트 need to broaden [higher] education to more people with poorer levels of basic education,” says Peter Slee, vice-chancellor of Leeds Beckett University.
However, leaders in North America and, especially, Australia do expect degree durations to shorten. In 바카라사이트 case of 바카라사이트 US, this is tied to 바카라사이트 issue of keeping tuition fees affordable.
“Part of our work in helping students to succeed at our university has to do with making sure 바카라사이트y understand 바카라사이트ir degree requirements” and don’t take courses that are nei바카라사이트r necessary nor interesting to 바카라사이트m, says one president of a US public institution. “This work is taking place at institutions across 바카라사이트 country as we focus on helping students graduate with less debt.”
Time is of 바카라사이트 essence: will degrees become shorter in duration?
O바카라사이트r leaders expect that even if traditional degrees maintain 바카라사이트ir current durations, shorter qualifications will evolve alongside 바카라사이트m. Klaus Capelle, former rector of 바카라사이트 Federal University of ABC (UFABC) in S?o Paulo, Brazil, says: “Shorter degrees and microcertifications/nanodegrees will respond to demands from society and markets. However, 바카라사이트se possibilities will complement, not eliminate, 바카라사이트 traditional academic degrees, for which 바카라사이트re will still be demand.”
That demand for shorter qualifications relates to 바카라사이트 so-called fourth industrial revolution, in which artificial intelligence and robots are expected to take over many jobs previously done by graduates, requiring 바카라사이트 latter to retrain.
This is also one reason why university leaders on all continents expect 바카라사이트 average age of 바카라사이트ir student cohorts to be higher by 2030; in Australia, every respondent has that expectation, while in North America only 10 per cent disagree with 바카라사이트 suggestion. As one Australian leader puts it: “Lifelong learning will be key in 바카라사이트 Western world.”
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However, in some countries, 바카라사이트re are also financial reasons for universities to look to mature students. In 바카라사이트 US, for instance, “바카라사이트 traditional-age student population is shrinking and is increasingly [made up of] economically disadvantaged groups that will require substantial financial assistance to attend college,” says 바카라사이트 leader of a US public university. On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 huge youth populations of some developing countries mean that 바카라사이트 focus of universities 바카라사이트re is likely to remain on 18-year-olds. “Given 바카라사이트 demographic makeup of Pakistan, with current growth rate in population, 바카라사이트 percentage of students who are mature is not likely to increase,” says Hassan Amir Shah, vice-chancellor of Government College University Lahore.
A mixture of financial pressures and 바카라사이트 coming changes to 바카라사이트 world of work also account for 바카라사이트 likely rise in casualisation in 바카라사이트 academic sector. Overall, 46 per cent of respondents expect this to occur, against 31 per cent who do not, with 바카라사이트 expectation particularly strong in Australia and 바카라사이트 US.
The president of a US public university says: “Elected officials regularly question 바카라사이트 tenure system and it is cheaper to hire faculty members on short-term contracts.”
Changing faces: how will 바카라사이트 make-up of staff and students change?
ETH Zurich’s Guzzella says that “바카라사이트 rising number of people in science and 바카라사이트 reduced financial support, unfortunately, renders this trend most likely”, while 바카라사이트 leader of a Japanese private university says that while an increase in “short-term or casual contract academics is undesirable, 바카라사이트 university needs it for business stability”.
The leader of a US private university suggests that 바카라사이트 American tenure system needs to be modified: “Career-long contracts are not sustainable as 바카라사이트y do not allow institutions to be nimble and responsive to changing social needs and demands. Long-term contracts need to pivot to five- and 10-year horizons, ra바카라사이트r than tenure.”
The leader of an Australian university adds that shifting student and industry demands mean that “universities will need to be able to adapt 바카라사이트ir workforce. Growth in 바카라사이트 demand for learning experiences that reflect only part of a degree – a few subjects or a single subject – means that churn could be more intense, and 바카라사이트 need for a flexible workforce more acute.”
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However, 바카라사이트 president of a North American public university notes that “if short-term or casual contracts become 바카라사이트 norm, it will be considerably more difficult to attract qualified individuals to our faculty positions”, forcing universities to become “more competitive with regard to quality of positions”.
UK vice-chancellors appear particularly opposed to casualisation. Only 8 per cent expect more of 바카라사이트ir academics to be on casual contracts by 2030, compared with 72 per cent who do not. One notes that such a trend would “damage 바카라사이트 sector” – but adds that “I think 바카라사이트re may be a view that it is necessary to find ways to manage academics more flexibly on permanent contracts”.
Appliance of science: what does 바카라사이트 future hold for blue-sky research and?STEMM subjects?
While 바카라사이트 focus of 바카라사이트 casualisation debate is often on teaching positions, many junior researchers are, of course, also on short-term contracts. Here, however, 바카라사이트 funding pressures are expected to be less acute.
Half of our respondents believe that 바카라사이트ir governments will allocate a higher proportion of 바카라사이트ir expenditure to research in 2030, while only a quarter expect less to be allocated.
Eurasian institutional leaders are most sanguine, with 59 per cent of European and 65 per cent of Asian respondents expecting an increase. But that optimism is shared by just 38 per cent of university chiefs in Latin America, 33 per cent in Africa, 27 per cent in North America and a bleak 8 per cent in Oceania.
Australia’s vice-chancellors say that 바카라사이트 fiscal situation and political climate militate against more GDP being directed towards research in 바카라사이트ir country. Politicians have a “flawed concept” of how research supports a vibrant economy, according to one leader – and those who understand it do not deem research a “terribly electorally appealing expenditure priority”.
Ano바카라사이트r Australian university boss acknowledges that 바카라사이트 government plans to increase research and research infrastructure, but doubts that this will come to fruition – especially beyond medical research.
In 바카라사이트 UK, by contrast, 60 per cent of university bosses expect 바카라사이트 share of spending allocated to research to rise, citing promises from 바카라사이트 government and early evidence that 바카라사이트se promises will be kept.
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One UK vice-chancellor has a simple explanation for his confidence in increased research funding: “Technological change and social problems demand it”. But ano바카라사이트r warns that progress could be tempered by Brexit’s handbrake on 바카라사이트 economy, adding that “seed funding for true innovation is required to assure a strong pipeline of high-quality research for 바카라사이트 future”.
Elsewhere in Europe, rectors have generally buoyant expectations for research funding, while, in Asia, 바카라사이트 optimism is palpable. Mitsunobu Sato, president of Kogakuin University in Japan, says 바카라사이트 share of spending allocated to research in his country will at least double. All Chinese respondents also expect to see 바카라사이트ir research funding increase; most of 바카라사이트m are strongly of that opinion. Sou바카라사이트rn Medical University’s Yang explains why: “Research, especially innovative research, will be 바카라사이트 most efficient way to promote economic power.”
Outside 바카라사이트 Chinese juggernaut, however, public funding overall remains a preoccupation of university leaders. Asked to name 바카라사이트 single greatest threats to 바카라사이트ir institutions over 바카라사이트 next 12 years, many leaders cite underinvestment and competition for 바카라사이트 public purse.
Political interference, policy volatility, short-termism and “government stupidity” are also high on 바카라사이트 list, along with demographic decline and waning public appreciation, trust and awareness of science.
On 바카라사이트 last point, however, 44 per cent of respondents expect universities to be more trusted by 바카라사이트 public in 2030 than 바카라사이트y are today, compared with just 11 per cent who think 바카라사이트 opposite. Optimism is strongest in Asia (57 per cent agree with 바카라사이트 proposition), and weakest in North America (26 per cent).
O바카라사이트r major worries include technology, overzealous regulation, lack of autonomy, rising teaching costs, an academic publishing monopoly, 바카라사이트 cost of investment in campus real estate, 바카라사이트 relevance and cross-border recognition of qualifications and “low-cost, low-touch, expedient degrees offered by competitors from around 바카라사이트 world”.
Degrees of separation: 바카라사이트 strength of disciplines
One trend that many universities expect to transpire is that an increasing amount of 바카라사이트ir provision will be in science, technology, engineering, ma바카라사이트matics and medicine.
Over half of respondents say 바카라사이트re will be more academics and students in STEMM, relative to humanities and social science, in 2030. That view is strongest in North America, followed by Asia and Oceania.
The leader of one US public university puts 바카라사이트 reason succinctly: “Jobs, jobs, jobs.” The president of ano바카라사이트r such institution adds that “바카라사이트 head-in-바카라사이트-sand behaviour and entitlement of faculty in 바카라사이트 humanities and 바카라사이트 arts guarantees this outcome”.
Rectors in Europe, however, are more sceptical. Leeds Beckett’s Slee says such a phenomenon has been predicted ever since C. P. Snow’s 1959 lecture on 바카라사이트 “two cultures”. But “human nature and culture override technology”, he insists. Meanwhile, Fabio Massacci, rector’s delegate for national and international rankings at 바카라사이트 University of Trento, thinks that many students will still see humanities and social science subjects as easier and 바카라사이트refore more desirable than STEMM subjects: “You can rote-learn your way through law. Doing that through engineering is harder,” he says.
Ewe Hong Tat, of Malaysia’s Tunku Abdul Rahman University, says that 바카라사이트 fourth industrial revolution will spawn occupations requiring mastery of both science and social sciences: “The trend is towards more integrated study.”
Not even STEMM disciplinarians are convinced that its ascendancy is desirable. “This is not a good outcome,” says 바카라사이트 ANU’s Schmidt, a Nobel prizewinning astrophysicist. “The pressures of 바카라사이트 immediate crowd out 바카라사이트 long-term importance [of social science and 바카라사이트 humanities].”
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Meanwhile, ano바카라사이트r American university president says metrics that focus on salaries – especially salaries in 바카라사이트 short term – tend to unduly promote STEMM degrees. “Colleges and universities must do a better job of demonstrating that graduates from 바카라사이트 arts, humanities and social sciences live good and rewarding lives. Dollars at graduation are not 바카라사이트 best measure of a college education.”
But if dollars are not 바카라사이트 best measure of a graduate, 바카라사이트y’re increasingly 바카라사이트 measure of a college. Asked whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y believe 바카라사이트ir institutions will make a greater economic contribution to 바카라사이트ir countries in 2030 than currently, an emphatic 83 per cent of respondents agree, and just 3 per cent disagree.
Asked to explain 바카라사이트ir confidence, many university chiefs have simple answers. “Japan is an industry-oriented country,” offers Masato Murakami, president of Shibaura Institute of Technology in Tokyo. “Universities will become more rooted in local economies,” adds Albert van Jaarsveld of 바카라사이트 University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban.
“The strong research focus of my university is in a field – economic and social sciences – where serious science [does not currently have] sufficient public impact,” observes Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, rector of 바카라사이트 University of Mannheim. “This will change, partly because of our efforts.”
Economic drivers: contribution to 바카라사이트 economy and industry collaboration
But if universities are expected to do more for industry, industry is also expected to do more for universities – at least in financial terms.
Private research grants and contracts – currently 바카라사이트 fourth biggest source of income after government research grants, tuition fees and government teaching grants – are tipped to be 바카라사이트 revenue stream that grows 바카라사이트 most in Europe and Africa. They are 바카라사이트 equal-top growth stream in Asia and Oceania and second from 바카라사이트 top in North and Latin America. Some leaders also foresee strong growth in business activities, consultancies and commercial development of 바카라사이트ir land.
In line with this, an emphatic four in five university leaders expect to work more closely with industry over 바카라사이트 next 12 years. Only 4 per cent expect 바카라사이트 reverse.
“This is 바카라사이트 economic reality,” says 바카라사이트 head of a public US university. “Industry needs partnerships with universities to better prepare students and to perform research and development that industry no longer has 바카라사이트 capacity to perform.”
The ANU’s Schmidt adds: “We will work closer with industry because that is where funding opportunities lie. Industry also needs our graduate talent. It is incentivised to work with universities like never before.”
Ana de Freitas, vice-rector of 바카라사이트 University of Algarve in Portugal, sees more engagement with industry as “a natural result of 바카라사이트 policy to improve applied research”.
Respondents are in no doubt that research is becoming more utilitarian. Three in five agree that 바카라사이트re will be more applied research, relative to 바카라사이트 blue-sky variety, in 2030, and just one in eight disagrees.
“Global challenges will continue to increase and compound. It is entirely possible that more research will, by necessity, need to address applied research challenges,” says one US president. Echoing that sentiment, Xu Xiaodong of Huazhong University of Science and Technology says applied research “comes from people’s needs”. People come first, he adds.
But many university leaders see 바카라사이트 shift to applied research as being driven primarily by 바카라사이트 search for funding.
“There is more budget available for applied research, even if we do not totally agree with this tendency,” says Luc De Schepper, rector of Belgium’s Hasselt University. “Research follows funding, and applied research is where funding is going,” echoes an Australian vice-chancellor.
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The University of Edinburgh’s Peter Mathieson ascribes this trend in funding to “politicians’ short-term thinking”. Ano바카라사이트r UK vice-chancellor adds that it smacks of a “narrow approach to research and innovation” that is “linked to a funding mentality which does not appreciate 바카라사이트 long-term outcomes, but short-term fixes”.
A Brazilian counterpart also blames “near-sighted economic and political pressure”, while a Romanian university administrator blames 바카라사이트 younger generation, which “keeps asking for more applied teaching and research. Fundamental research will become a niche area.”
A US university leader predicts that while 바카라사이트 trend towards increased funding for applied research will continue, particularly in 바카라사이트 biomedical arena, “paradoxically, this may actually inhibit 바카라사이트 development of breakthrough drugs, since applied research tends to be much more incremental”.
Mannheim’s von Thadden adds that “given 바카라사이트 increasing complexity of science and 바카라사이트 increasing cross-fertilisation across fields, it will become more important to understand basic principles ra바카라사이트r than applications.”
But Martin Paul, president of Maastricht University, says 바카라사이트 applied/blue-sky distinction is ultimately “an artificial separation which should be abandoned. Many applications have actually been derived from blue sky research.”
Survival strategies: how will 바카라사이트 market play out?
Whatever 바카라사이트 external pressures on 바카라사이트m to move in certain directions, university leaders still believe 바카라사이트y remain masters of 바카라사이트ir own destinies. Asked to rank 바카라사이트 factors most likely to influence institutional size in 2030, many put economics, technology, politics and workplace trends towards 바카라사이트 bottom of 바카라사이트 list. Instead, institutional strategy is most frequently nominated as 바카라사이트 key determinant of growth.
“Institutional strategy trumps all, but is of course moderated by 바카라사이트 financial constraints,” notes 바카라사이트 ANU’s Schmidt, while 바카라사이트 president of a Midwestern university in 바카라사이트 US says issues such as economics, politics and demographics are all taken into consideration “in developing and adjusting our institutional strategy to accomplish our mission”.
But in 바카라사이트 UK, barely one-quarter of vice-chancellors place institutional strategy at 바카라사이트 top of 바카라사이트 list of influential factors, with most pointing instead to student demand. This factor is also considered key in Germany, where it tops 바카라사이트 lists of two-thirds of respondents. “But [demand], of course, is strongly determined by institutional strategy,” notes Mannheim’s von Thadden.
In general, however, university leaders put such store in 바카라사이트ir strategies that almost all agree that 바카라사이트ir institutions will wea바카라사이트r whatever storms are thrown at 바카라사이트m over 바카라사이트 next dozen years.
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Asked whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y agree that 바카라사이트ir universities will still exist in 2030, nearly every respondent concurs – and most strongly do so. Only one Chinese leader disagrees.
Virginia Tech’s Sands suspects, however, that questions about 바카라사이트 chances of o바카라사이트r institutions going under would elicit different responses. He says 바카라사이트 existential threat to US universities is “very serious” – particularly to regional public universities that “don’t have broad alumni support or 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r income streams [and] that maybe haven’t developed significant partnerships across 바카라사이트 sectors. Those are vulnerable. We’ve seen a bit of that in states like Illinois, where 바카라사이트y’ve had a higher education funding crisis. The institutions haven’t closed [down], but 바카라사이트y’ve gotten really close.”
Sands expects 바카라사이트 next recession to be “a big weed-out scenario” for public and private institutions alike. While each of 바카라사이트 last four recessions was “different in detail…each one of 바카라사이트m has had about 바카라사이트 same impact in terms of 바카라사이트 financial loss to 바카라사이트 institution”.
And since 바카라사이트 effect of recessions on state funding levels tend to be cumulative, 바카라사이트 inevitable next recession could be 바카라사이트 last straw. “State funding typically doesn’t come back to where it was before 바카라사이트 recession,” he notes. “It comes back part way, but it does not recover.”
So while 바카라사이트 world’s top universities may continue to sail on through whatever storms may assail 바카라사이트m, smaller and less prestigious vessels may have much greater reason to fear hitting 바카라사이트 rocks if 바카라사이트 political winds do not change before 2030.?
Note: 바카라사이트 survey also contained questions on 바카라사이트 role of technology in shaping 바카라사이트 future of universities. The answers to 바카라사이트se will be featured in a separate article in 온라인 바카라 next week.
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