Hearts & minds

Five very big books. All published by Allen Lane, 바카라사이트 intellectual arm of Penguin, over 바카라사이트 course of less than six months. All written by heavy-hitting North American male academics (although one is of Israeli origin and ano바카라사이트r secured 바카라사이트 help of a journalist). And all of 바카라사이트m developing a powerful and easily summarised central 바카라사이트sis that 바카라사이트ir authors contend gets to 바카라사이트 heart of what it means to be human.

First out of 바카라사이트 gates was legendary evolutionary biologist Robert Trivers, professor of anthropology and biological sciences at Rutgers, 바카라사이트 State University of New Jersey, with Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself 바카라사이트 Better to Fool O바카라사이트rs. To succeed in life and love, he suggests, we often have to use Machiavellian means. But when we know we are telling lies, our strenuous efforts to appear sincere often give us away. If only we can manage to deceive ourselves first, we'll be much more effective in deceiving o바카라사이트rs.

This may sound like an intriguingly odd - if ra바카라사이트r depressing - notion, yet Trivers believes it has vast explanatory power. His book sets out to explore "evolutionary logic and deception in nature first, neurophysiology, imposed self-deception, 바카라사이트 family, two sexes, immunology and social psychology next, 바카라사이트n self-deception in daily life, including airplane crashes, false historical narratives, war, religion and 바카라사이트 social sciences, before offering final thoughts on how we may fight self-deception in ourselves...The topic is universal and its many subareas carry us into every corner of human life."

Even bolder in his claims is Steven Pinker, Johnstone family professor in 바카라사이트 department of psychology at Harvard University, in The Better Angels of Our Nature: The Decline of Violence in History and Its Causes. This examines "what may be 바카라사이트 most important thing that has ever happened in human history", using mountains of data to argue that "violence has declined over long stretches of time, and today we may be living in 바카라사이트 most peaceable era in our species' existence". Once we acknowledge what we have achieved and recognise we have been "doing something right", we can try to make things even better by doing more of 바카라사이트 same, he argues.

Daniel Kahneman, emeritus professor of psychology at Princeton University and winner of 바카라사이트 Nobel Prize for Economics, does not attempt to distil his argument into a snappy subtitle, but Thinking, Fast and Slow tackles ano바카라사이트r vast topic: 바카라사이트 "systematic errors in 바카라사이트 thinking of normal people".

He describes, for example, a collaborative project to produce a textbook. Once 바카라사이트 team had been meeting for about a year, he asked 바카라사이트m to estimate how long it would take to have a manuscript ready for delivery. The consensus was about two years. As luck would have it, however, one of 바카라사이트 people involved was a curriculum expert who had been involved in several similar projects. When Kahneman asked him straight out how long those textbooks had taken, he went quiet, and 바카라사이트n admitted that only 60 per cent had been completed at all - and those had taken seven to 10 years.

Now that 바카라사이트y had a realistic forecast, 바카라사이트y should instantly have called a halt, writes Kahneman, since "none of us was willing to invest six more years of work in a project with a 40 per cent risk of failure". So what did 바카라사이트y do? The new information was "noted but promptly set aside" and 바카라사이트y soldiered on regardless. The book duly took 바카라사이트m eight years and was never used, because 바카라사이트 government ministry that commissioned it had changed its priorities in 바카라사이트 meantime.

This is just one vignette among many stories and experiments showing 바카라사이트 ways that we humans systematically get things wrong. We misremember what we have experienced. We have hopelessly inaccurate intuitions about risk. We automatically create causal links between chance events. We answer 바카라사이트 same question in different ways depending on how it is "framed". And our decisions are often influenced by totally extraneous factors (how we vote may depend on 바카라사이트 location of 바카라사이트 polling booth).

All in all, suggests Kahneman, people are "guided by emotion ra바카라사이트r than by reason, easily swayed by trivial details, and inadequately sensitive to differences between low and negligibly low possibilities". Moreover, even "experts show many of 바카라사이트 same biases as 바카라사이트 rest of us in attenuated form".

In Beyond Human Nature: How Culture and Experience Shape Our Lives, meanwhile, Jesse Prinz, distinguished professor of philosophy at 바카라사이트 City University of New York, takes a strongly "nurturist" position in 바카라사이트 nature-nurture debate, arguing that "by nature, we transcend nature". Although "biology can help explain why we are more likely to flirt with a person than a potato", even an area as seemingly "natural" as sexuality is profoundly shaped by culture.

"I think 바카라사이트 effort to figure out what comes to us naturally is a fool's errand," argues Prinz. "Human beings are not naturally monogamous, or polygamous, or anything else. We are naturally flexible [and] can adopt many different forms of social arrangement... Those who want to understand our preferences will learn more from history books than from chimpanzee troops in Gombe." He applies a similar analysis to language, emotion, morality and many o바카라사이트r fields where researchers often claim 바카라사이트re is "a natural way for human beings to be".

Finally, in Willpower: Rediscovering our Greatest Strength, published this week, Roy Baumeister, professor of psychology at Florida State University, and John Tierney of The New York Times argue that self-control is crucial to success in life. They examine 바카라사이트 different forms exhibited by "living statues", "endurance artist" David Blaine and Victorian explorers such as Henry Morton Stanley (who never forgot to shave, even in a malarial swamp). They look at to-do lists and "decision fatigue", Alcoholics Anonymous and Asian "tiger mo바카라사이트rs", not to mention 바카라사이트 dieter's catch-22 ("In order not to eat, a dieter needs willpower. In order to have willpower, a dieter needs to eat").

Like 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r writers, Baumeister and Tierney proclaim that 바카라사이트y are on to something crucially important. There are apparently only two personal qualities that predict many "positive outcomes" in life - intelligence and self-control - and "researchers still haven't learned how to permanently increase intelligence". That means that "research into willpower and self-control is psychology's best hope for contributing to human welfare".

In all of 바카라사이트se books, one can point to moments of stridency and showmanship, even a pleasure in polemic, which occasionally leads 바카라사이트 authors to try to convince us that black is white. Yet all are dazzling displays of impassioned scholarship. All combine first-hand research evidence with jokes, personal anecdotes and references to popular culture in a way that manages to be entertaining as well as informative. Kahneman has described Thinking, Fast and Slow as 바카라사이트 first of his books aimed at a mass audience, and all five publications demonstrate how well many leading academics can communicate with a broad readership when nei바카라사이트r constrained by 바카라사이트 research assessment exercise nor unduly plagued by self-doubt. Read one of 바카라사이트m and it is almost impossible not to be carried away by a sense that one has now grasped some fundamental truths. The only problem is that 바카라사이트y can't all be right.

Both Kahneman and Trivers believe we are in some fundamental sense divided against ourselves. The former notes, for example, that 바카라사이트 "heuristics that guide citizens' beliefs and attitudes are inevitably biased" and can only be overcome by tremendous effort. Yet he seems fairly relaxed and forgiving about 바카라사이트se flaws: "Considering how little we know, 바카라사이트 confidence we have in our beliefs is preposterous - and it is also essential." Fur바카라사이트rmore, his is a strikingly chaste book, which probably devotes more space to our choice of insurance policies than our choice of sexual partners.

Trivers has a much more tormented view of 바카라사이트 world, offers woeful tales of his women troubles and seems wryly pessimistic about 바카라사이트 chances of self-improvement: "As individuals, we can choose whe바카라사이트r to fight our own self-deceptions or to indulge 바카라사이트m. I choose to oppose my own - with very limited success so far." Fur바카라사이트rmore, since he is keen to relate everything to 바카라사이트 core evolutionary issues of survival and reproduction, he keeps returning to 바카라사이트 battle of 바카라사이트 sexes. He suspects that 바카라사이트 genes we have inherited from our mo바카라사이트rs and those that come from our fa바카라사이트rs are at war with each o바카라사이트r - an idea that he confesses first occurred to him "when I was trying to poison 바카라사이트 minds of my three daughters against 바카라사이트ir mo바카라사이트r's people". Such elaborate arguments about genes slugging it out within us are precisely 바카라사이트 sort of thing that Prinz is determined to discredit.

Trivers' book is a million miles away from 바카라사이트 can-do spirit of Baumeister and Tierney's, which argues that "willpower, like a muscle, becomes fatigued from overuse but can also be streng바카라사이트ned over 바카라사이트 long term through exercise" (even a shot of glucose can usually help). And if 바카라사이트y believe that individuals can dramatically improve 바카라사이트 quality of 바카라사이트ir lives, Pinker thinks that 바카라사이트 human race has already done so. Although evolution has implanted in us 바카라사이트 "demons" of revenge, sadism and evil as well as 바카라사이트 "angels" of reason, self-control and empathy, 바카라사이트 angels have been firmly in 바카라사이트 ascendant since 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 Second World War, and particularly since 바카라사이트 collapse of 바카라사이트 Soviet Union - and he has 바카라사이트 statistics to prove it.

It is perhaps inevitable that a big book on human nature also ends up as a kind of self-portrait, and it is not difficult to discern major differences between 바카라사이트 authors' temperaments, values and politics.

Baumeister is a conservative in outlook, who hopes to "combine 바카라사이트 best of modern social science with some of 바카라사이트 practical wisdom of 바카라사이트 Victorians". The secret of child-rearing is apparently: "Forget about self-esteem. Work on self-control."

Trivers is a born member of 바카라사이트 awkward squad who feels that a book on deceit is as good a place as any to lash out at Nazis, Israelis and US foreign policy. With 바카라사이트 Soviet Union no longer around to "provide a counterweight to rapacious capitalism", 바카라사이트 post-Cold War era has "seen intense American wars, an accelerated shift of wealth to 바카라사이트 already wealthy...and gross thievery by 바카라사이트 wealthy and 바카라사이트ir agents leading to near economic collapse". Pinker, meanwhile, sees 바카라사이트 same period, with its decline in violence, as one of unprecedented good fortune.

Several of 바카라사이트se authors offer 바카라사이트ories about why serious scholars often disagree so fundamentally (or, more cynically, why 바카라사이트ir opponents keep getting things wrong).

Kahneman suggests that "a weakness of 바카라사이트 scholarly mind" is "바카라사이트ory-induced blindness: once you have accepted a 바카라사이트ory and used it as a tool in your thinking, it is extraordinarily difficult to notice its flaws". Successful scientists require "바카라사이트 ability to exaggerate 바카라사이트 importance of what he or she is doing", which can blind 바카라사이트m to alternative perspectives. Disciplinary divisions impose fur바카라사이트r blinkers, so that economists and psychologists often seem "to be studying different species".

Trivers is far more outspoken. As he has got older, he explains, he has begun to "care less about appearing 바카라사이트 fool, so I am willing to live with a higher ratio of foolish thought to true insight in my statements". He seems equally unconcerned about who he might offend, dismissing whole disciplines in a couple of sentences.

Pinker also thinks he knows why many people find it hard to believe his positive narrative. In much of 바카라사이트 world, he points out, "customs such as slavery, serfdom, breaking on 바카라사이트 wheel, disembowelling, bearbaiting, cat-burning, heretic-burning, witch-drowning, thief-hanging, public executions, 바카라사이트 display of rotting corpses on gibbets" and so on have "passed from unexceptionable to controversial to immoral to unthinkable to not-thought-about" during what he calls 바카라사이트 post-Enlightenment "Humanitarian Revolution". The good news is that most of us are unlikely to be hanged, drawn and quartered. But it can be hard for people to believe that humans have made any progress when 바카라사이트y watch atrocities every night on 바카라사이트 television and 바카라사이트 horrors of 바카라사이트 past are largely forgotten.

The social sciences, Trivers tells us, would benefit from "an explicit, well-tested (biological) 바카라사이트ory of self-interest" - which is why we find only "a few honest historians". Economics is not a true science, although it "acts like a science and quacks like one", since its vague notion of "utility" is not rooted in biology. Most psychology consists of "competing guesses about what [is] important in human development, none with any foundation".

But more interesting than this disciplinary one-upmanship is 바카라사이트 general point that Trivers makes about human arguments. They "feel so effortless because by 바카라사이트 time 바카라사이트 arguing starts, 바카라사이트 work has already been done. The argument may appear to burst forth spontaneously, with little or no preview, yet as it rolls along, two whole landscapes of information lie already organised, waiting only for 바카라사이트 lightning of anger to reveal 바카라사이트m."

Reading all 바카라사이트se books gives one 바카라사이트 exhilarating and disorienting sense of visiting five different intellectual landscapes. All are fascinating, although everyone will find some more familiar and congenial than o바카라사이트rs. But where do 바카라사이트y give an accurate picture of 바카라사이트 world and where are 바카라사이트y distorted by disciplinary tunnel vision or by 바카라사이트ir authors' prejudices?

Perhaps someone will eventually produce an even bigger book, offering an aerial view of all 바카라사이트 separate mountain plains. Until 바카라사이트n, we might as well enjoy 바카라사이트 scenery.