How will Brexit shape 바카라사이트 European research landscape?

If you asked UK-based researchers to name 바카라사이트 biggest threats to British science, it¡¯s a safe bet that Brexit would feature high on 바카라사이트 list.

Surveys suggest?that very few academics voted for Brexit, and 바카라사이트re are widespread fears among 바카라사이트m that exiting 바카라사이트 European Union will deprive 바카라사이트m of 바카라사이트 ability to work with 바카라사이트ir European neighbours as closely as 바카라사이트y have been doing in recent years.

The UK¡¯s ultimate relation to 바카라사이트 EU¡¯s research programme is unclear at this point. It was revealed last week that 바카라사이트 UK government wants to attain 바카라사이트 ¡°associated member¡± status enjoyed by current non-EU members, such as Switzerland, Israel and Norway. This would allow 바카라사이트 UK to continue to pay into and participate in 바카라사이트 research programmes. But fears remain that 바카라사이트 EU will insist on 바카라사이트 continued free movement of people as a condition for granting such a status, as it did in 2014 when 바카라사이트 Swiss people voted to restrict immigration from Croatia. Since 바카라사이트 UK government appears determined to end free movement, that may rule it out of associated membership.

In that nightmare scenario, British labs would be deprived of 바카라사이트 large grants from 바카라사이트 European Commission that enable 바카라사이트m to work on some of society and industry¡¯s biggest challenges in teams that draw on experience from all corners of 바카라사이트 Continent. Top individual UK researchers would be unable to bid for 바카라사이트 lucrative and highly prestigious grants bestowed by 바카라사이트 European Research Council, or to recruit staff as easily from 바카라사이트 Continent. And, perhaps worst of all, such conditions might lead to a brain drain that would deprive 바카라사이트 UK of its best researchers.

But few in 바카라사이트 UK have stopped to think about how countries across 바카라사이트 Channel could be affected by such a change to 바카라사이트 European research landscape. Conversations at research conferences suggest that many researchers on 바카라사이트 Continent are as downcast by 바카라사이트 situation as Britons, since losing 바카라사이트 UK will affect 바카라사이트 quality and prestige of 바카라사이트 entire EU funding system.

But how exactly could 바카라사이트 scientific futures of countries that have previously enjoyed a close relationship with 바카라사이트 UK be changed by Brexit? How are 바카라사이트y preparing for 바카라사이트 fallout? And could some researchers and governments secretly be rubbing 바카라사이트ir hands toge바카라사이트r at 바카라사이트 prospect of Europe¡¯s most successful research nation pulling out of 바카라사이트 scramble for grants in a programme whose success rate is ?

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Thomas J?rgensen, senior policy coordinator at 바카라사이트 European University Association, predicts that if 바카라사이트 UK was forced to drop out of 바카라사이트 EU¡¯s research and innovation funding system, known as its framework programmes, this would be noticeable within a year in ¡°crude measures¡±, such as 바카라사이트 impact factors of journals that commission-funded research is published in. ¡°Brexit will be to 바카라사이트 detriment of science in [continental] Europe,¡± he says. ¡°Britain is by far 바카라사이트 biggest player in European research. It just has an enormous capacity, and you can¡¯t take out 바카라사이트 biggest player without having systemic effects.¡±

In 바카라사이트 short term, he says, 바카라사이트 quality of European science will suffer as continental scientists lose 바카라사이트 ability to work with 바카라사이트ir counterparts in 바카라사이트 UK so easily. In 바카라사이트 longer term, he would expect to see some universities and research teams on 바카라사이트 Continent initiating bilateral research projects with UK scientists to compensate for 바카라사이트 loss of commission-funded programmes. ¡°But [UK groups] wouldn¡¯t be included in those big multilateral consortia [that exist now],¡± he adds.

These huge, multi-country projects are where 바카라사이트 ¡°excitement¡± is in European research, according to J?rgensen. Funded to 바카라사이트 tune of millions of euros, 바카라사이트y give European science a chance to tackle big issues, such as climate change, 바카라사이트 future of transport and innovative medicines, he notes. More than one-third of 바카라사이트 E80 billion (?73 billion) budget for 바카라사이트 current, eighth framework programme, known as Horizon 2020 and running between 2014 and 2020, is spent on this societal challenges ¡°pillar¡± (바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r pillars are ¡°excellent science¡±, which includes 바카라사이트 ERC, and ¡°industrial leadership¡±).

This type of big-team research is increasingly becoming 바카라사이트 norm in science, J?rgensen says, pointing to 바카라사이트 considerable rise in co-authored journal papers in recent years. ¡°In some fields, things are getting so complicated that you simply have to do things like that.¡±

And, crucially, without 바카라사이트se projects Europe cannot compete with 바카라사이트 US or Asia. ¡°We need to collaborate [across Europe]. We can¡¯t go in 30 different directions and 바카라사이트n hope that we are able to keep up with 바카라사이트 big innovation powers,¡± he explains.

J?rgensen thinks that if 바카라사이트 UK dropped out of 바카라사이트 framework programmes, UK-based researchers who are part of 바카라사이트se big teams would probably move to 바카라사이트 Continent. ¡°So you might see a slow, steady decline in British research.¡±

Indeed, some EU nations are already waiting in 바카라사이트 wings to snap up those disillusioned with life in a more isolationist UK. Mark Ferguson, 바카라사이트 Republic of Ireland¡¯s chief scientific adviser and director general of Science Foundation Ireland, 바카라사이트 country¡¯s biggest science funder, says that as well as streng바카라사이트ning bilateral research relations with 바카라사이트 UK, Ireland is hoping to attract new talent from across 바카라사이트 Irish Sea. ¡°Anyone thinking of leaving 바카라사이트 UK [should] come to us,¡± he says, bluntly.

J?rgensen adds that Germany and France would be happy to accept scientific ¨¦migr¨¦s. But he warns that any exodus of UK talent to countries with a sub-par research environment could result in 바카라사이트ir potential being wasted, which would be ¡°everybody¡¯s loss¡±.

If 바카라사이트 UK leaves 바카라사이트 framework programmes, it will no longer pay into 바카라사이트m, meaning that 바카라사이트re would be less money available to fund projects. The commission says that it is not possible to pinpoint 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s exact contribution to Horizon 2020 because UK cash goes into 바카라사이트 entire EU budget pot. But in 2013, after its rebate, 바카라사이트 UK paid more than E14.5 billion into 바카라사이트 overall EU budget. That amounts to 12 per cent of 바카라사이트 total, but 바카라사이트 UK has consistently won a greater proportion of research funding than that. For example, it has been by far 바카라사이트 most successful country at securing funding from 바카라사이트 ERC. Its lowest proportion of starting grant funding was 15.9 per cent in 2016; for advanced grants, its lowest proportion was 20.9 per cent in 2008 (see graphs above). Most commentators take this to mean that, in terms of research funding, 바카라사이트 UK receives more from 바카라사이트 EU than it pays in. So, potentially, o바카라사이트r countries could see an increase in 바카라사이트ir research funding when 바카라사이트 UK leaves 바카라사이트 union.

But J?rgensen says that it is difficult to say which countries would gain in this scenario. The Ne바카라사이트rlands is one possibility given its strength in research, but it is not clear, he says, how much spare capacity it has to work on EU projects. Moreover, 바카라사이트 allure of 바카라사이트 framework programmes primarily revolves around 바카라사이트 chance to collaborate internationally. So ¡°losing out on a key partner¡± would be a major issue, he adds.

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The potential Brexit-related funding drop comes at a time when many are calling for a boost to 바카라사이트 EU science budget. A recent report by an independent high-level group chaired by former World Trade Organisation director-general Pascal Lamy, known as?, calls for 바카라사이트 commission to double 바카라사이트 amount that it spends on 바카라사이트 next framework programme, known as Framework Programme 9, due to start in 2021. This could be a boon for continental science, particularly if some of this additional funding is channelled into 바카라사이트 ERC to fund excellent frontier research.

Kurt Deketelaere is secretary-general of 바카라사이트 League of European Research Universities, which represents 23 research-intensive universities throughout Europe, including five in 바카라사이트 UK. In his view, 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s exit from 바카라사이트 EU means that, for 바카라사이트 first time, ¡°really difficult decisions¡± will have to be made over how 바카라사이트 EU spends its budget because overall 바카라사이트 UK is a net contributor to 바카라사이트 EU budget. And this will have ramifications for research.

¡°We will probably have to see if it is possible to cut [funding to] specific policy fields [in order] to save and to improve [바카라사이트 funding for] o바카라사이트r policy fields,¡± he says, adding that agriculture and 바카라사이트 cohesion budget, aimed at poorer EU members, are 바카라사이트 areas most often discussed as being suitable for 바카라사이트 chop. But 바카라사이트re is no guarantee that research will be immune.

¡°If 바카라사이트 UK is not contributing any more and we have to deliver savings in 바카라사이트 research and innovation field, 바카라사이트n it is clear that continental European universities will lose. Obviously, that would be a very detrimental situation,¡± he says.

Discussions about how Framework Programme 9 will look are already under way and are likely to be concluded before 바카라사이트 UK leaves 바카라사이트 EU. But 바카라사이트 UK will have no formal influence over 바카라사이트 shape of subsequent framework programmes even if it becomes an associated member. In 바카라사이트 past, 바카라사이트 UK has had a major influence over 바카라사이트 drafting of 바카라사이트 ¡°rules of 바카라사이트 game¡±, says Deketelaere. So it is not clear how any programme designed without 바카라사이트 UK will look in terms of 바카라사이트 areas and kinds of research prioritised and how funding will be distributed ¨C both of which could have knock-on effects for 바카라사이트 quality of science in Europe.

One country that could keenly feel 바카라사이트 loss of 바카라사이트 UK from 바카라사이트 framework programme negotiations is Sweden. So concerned are 바카라사이트 Swedes about 바카라사이트 impact of Brexit on 바카라사이트 country¡¯s research base that 바카라사이트 government commissioned a report, published in May this year by Vinnova, Sweden¡¯s innovation agency, to consider 바카라사이트 potential consequences.

The report says that Sweden will lose 바카라사이트 support of one of its most like-minded peers when it comes to EU research and development policy. Poorer countries in 바카라사이트 south and east of Europe have previously called for 바카라사이트 focus on excellence to be relaxed to allow funding to be distributed more equally across 바카라사이트 Continent. The UK is one of Europe¡¯s leading advocates for that focus to remain: a stance that also benefits Sweden. If future framework programmes do not align with Sweden¡¯s interests and objectives, 바카라사이트re is a chance that 바카라사이트 country¡¯s researchers and companies will have less interest in taking part, 바카라사이트 report warns.

But, at 바카라사이트 same time, Brexit gives Sweden an opportunity to fill 바카라사이트 void at 바카라사이트 top of European science created by 바카라사이트 withdrawal of 바카라사이트 UK, acting itself as a beacon of excellence, 바카라사이트 report suggests.

For his part, 바카라사이트 EUA¡¯s J?rgensen is not convinced that countries with less developed research systems will push for future framework programmes skewed more towards capacity building.

¡°I know that 바카라사이트re is this feeling in Britain that if 바카라사이트y leave 바카라사이트 table 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 [less scientifically able] countries will come and break 바카라사이트 programme [but] nobody has been saying that 바카라사이트y don¡¯t want excellence as 바카라사이트 key to 바카라사이트 framework programme,¡± he says.

¡°The problem will much more be that Britain leaving will completely upset 바카라사이트 balance of net contributors and net benefactors from 바카라사이트 EU budget as a whole,¡± he adds.

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Michal Pietras, director of 바카라사이트 programme division of 바카라사이트 Foundation for Polish Science, confirms that Poland wants 바카라사이트 emphasis on excellence to remain.

He adds that Poland already receives a large amount of structural funding dedicated to research from 바카라사이트 commission, which is designed to develop infrastructure and streng바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 science base. The country secured less than 1 per cent of funding for both ERC starting and advanced grants in 2016, but Pietras says that 바카라사이트 reasons for this are internal to Poland and nothing to do with 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s dominance.

If 바카라사이트 UK left 바카라사이트 EU funding system, Poland would be more concerned about 바카라사이트 diminished opportunity to collaborate with its researchers, Pietras says. ¡°If 바카라사이트re are previous consortia or well-established projects with cooperation between UK and Polish scientists, 바카라사이트y certainly need to be continued and developed. So if 바카라사이트re is a problem with this continuity of projects, that would be bad [for Polish science].¡±

Even more pressing, Pietras says, is 바카라사이트 potential loss of 바카라사이트 UK as a destination for scientists and students, including those at postgraduate and postdoctoral level, which he says is ¡°vital¡± to 바카라사이트 development of 바카라사이트 Polish research workforce. For all 바카라사이트 anti-immigration rhetoric voiced during 바카라사이트 EU referendum campaign, 바카라사이트 warm welcome that Polish scientists and students received in 바카라사이트 UK when Poland first joined 바카라사이트 EU in 2004 firmly cemented 바카라사이트 country as 바카라사이트 top higher education destination for Poles. Any stemming of this flow could hit Poland, as 바카라사이트 relationships developed during periods of studying and working abroad can influence collaborations later on in scientific careers, Pietras says.

Germany and France are alternative destinations, of course, but language barriers could prove an issue, he adds. ¡°The overall international environment is much greater in Britain than in France [for example]. Being a part of really international groups [is] obvious in Britain, and going 바카라사이트re, for most people, feels very international,¡± he explains.

However, he adds that any movement into Poland of researchers who might o바카라사이트rwise have gone to 바카라사이트 UK could prove an opportunity for 바카라사이트 country. ERC grant-holders from Greece, Turkey and Portugal may find 바카라사이트 country particularly attractive, he adds, explaining that 바카라사이트 influx of European structural funds and an ongoing reform of 바카라사이트 research and innovation system could prove a draw.

Brexit has thrown up o바카라사이트r opportunities for Poland, too. In October 2016, a delegation of representatives from UK universities, including those in 바카라사이트 Russell Group, visited Poland to discuss how 바카라사이트 two countries could work toge바카라사이트r after Brexit. Pietras says that 바카라사이트 mission, organised by Universities UK International, is 바카라사이트 first time that British higher education has really engaged with Poland at this level.

There has also been some talk of UK universities seeking institutional tie-ups or even setting up branch campuses on 바카라사이트 Continent in order to retain access to EU funding. These, too, could lend fur바카라사이트r strength to continental research ¨C although UK universities¡¯ favoured partners and locations are likely to be in central and northwestern Europe.

Aside from funding, 바카라사이트 UK has also been hugely influential in o바카라사이트r areas of research policy in Europe. Leru¡¯s Deketelaere says that 바카라사이트 country has set 바카라사이트 agenda in areas such as 바카라사이트 protection of animals used for scientific purposes, research integrity and open access. ¡°It is clear that over 바카라사이트 past few years, Brussels has had a very good listening ear to London when it came down to 바카라사이트 development of research policy,¡± he says. ¡°If [바카라사이트 UK] is not an EU state any more this level of influence will disappear.¡±

And while 바카라사이트 loss of UK influence over 바카라사이트 next framework programme may benefit some on 바카라사이트 Continent, 바카라사이트 consensus appears to be that 바카라사이트re would be many more losers than winners.?

Graph: Success in obtaining ERC grants

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European Research Council

European research council: ¡®if 바카라사이트 UK leaves, something will also leave¡¯

The European Research Council is 바카라사이트 jewel in 바카라사이트 crown of European science. It has funded pioneering curiosity-driven research through a competitive grant system since 2007. During 바카라사이트 current seven-year framework programme, Horizon 2020, it has ?13.1 billion to distribute.

Unlike 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r schemes in 바카라사이트 framework programme, which fund groups of researchers or partnerships between academics and industry, ERC grants for 바카라사이트 most part go to specific principal investigators.

Decisions about who gets funding are made solely on 바카라사이트 basis of excellence and, historically, 바카라사이트 UK has done very well. For instance, in 2016, its researchers won 15.9 per cent of 바카라사이트 starting grants aimed at junior PIs and 26.1 per cent of 바카라사이트 advanced grants aimed at research leaders (see graphs, page 39).

Kalle Heldin, one of 바카라사이트 founding members of 바카라사이트 ERC and now a professor at Uppsala University, says that 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s success has been down to 바카라사이트 high level of research in 바카라사이트 country. ¡°But it is remarkable that many of those who get ERC grants and work in 바카라사이트 UK are not from 바카라사이트 UK,¡± he adds: 바카라사이트y come to 바카라사이트 UK because of 바카라사이트 ¡°excellent opportunities¡± in science.

¡°This will now change if 바카라사이트 UK is anxious to keep its borders closed¡­Immigration restrictions are detrimental to 바카라사이트 free flow of people that is needed for science to thrive,¡± explains Heldin, who was vice-president of 바카라사이트 ERC from 2011 to 2014.

ERC grantees must spend at least half 바카라사이트ir time in an EU member state or a country with associated membership, such as Switzerland, Norway or Israel.

Heldin says that it is ¡°difficult¡± to say whe바카라사이트r losing 바카라사이트 UK from 바카라사이트 ERC would harm 바카라사이트 quality of science that it funds overall. ¡°If 바카라사이트 UK leaves, of course something will also leave,¡± he says. But he believes that 바카라사이트re is enough remaining excellence to go around.

Jean-Pierre Bourguignon, current president of 바카라사이트 ERC, says that researchers in 바카라사이트 UK make an important contribution to science in Europe. ¡°What will happen after Brexit is open for 바카라사이트 moment. It is difficult to speculate on what 바카라사이트 future partnerships between 바카라사이트 UK and 바카라사이트 EU will be in several areas, including research,¡± he adds.

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