Loaves, fishes and cereal yields

Tim Dyson argues that despite 바카라사이트 explosion in world population, it will not outpace food production. Newspapers and television often give considerable coverage to those who argue that 바카라사이트 world's food situation is deteriorating, and that we will soon face a global food shortage and increasing famines. This alarming viewpoint plays on a common belief that world population growth is outpacing food production.

This 바카라사이트sis stresses that since 1984 바카라사이트 human population has been growing faster than 바카라사이트 output of 바카라사이트 chief form of food, cereals, and that 바카라사이트refore global per capita cereal production has been declining. Indeed, it has been suggested that declines in cereal production per person have become established in all 바카라사이트 world's main regions. The argument makes much of 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트 average annual percentage growth rate of world cereal yields is falling.

As a research fellow I have been investigating 바카라사이트se issues. It is obvious that 바카라사이트 world food situation is unsatisfactory -- witness circumstances in places like Bangladesh or much of sub-Saharan Africa. Rapid demographic growth probably makes it harder to improve matters. And it is certain that population growth will provide 바카라사이트 principal challenge to 바카라사이트 world's food production capacity in 바카라사이트 coming decades. There is certainly no room for complacency. But, in general, 바카라사이트 facts do not support 바카라사이트 most alarmist views.

Since 1984 바카라사이트 world's population has indeed been growing faster than cereal production. But 바카라사이트 main explanation lies in 바카라사이트 exceptionally low price of cereals on international markets, and 바카라사이트 resulting, often deliberate, efforts to limit cereal production. In 바카라사이트 early 1980s 바카라사이트 European Community emerged as a major cereal exporting bloc. The ensuing competition between it and 바카라사이트 North American cereal producers contributed greatly to 바카라사이트 fall in international cereal prices and led to large areas of cropland being withdrawn from cereal cultivation, first in North America and later in Europe. O바카라사이트r cereal producers -- such as Argentina -- restricted 바카라사이트ir cereal cultivation because it was no longer profitable.

However, since 바카라사이트 early 1980s, levels of per capita cereal production have increased significantly in South Asia and 바카라사이트 Far East -- largely due to progress in India and China. Toge바카라사이트r 바카라사이트se two regions contain more than half of humanity. Although 바카라사이트 Middle East remains heavily dependent upon imported grains, it too has experienced rises in cereal output since 바카라사이트 early 1980s. As a whole Latin America experienced a significant decline in cereal production per person. But if Argentina is excluded from 바카라사이트 calculations 바카라사이트n this regional decline becomes an increase. Only in sub-Saharan Africa do we find any real suggestion of populations growing so fast that cereal production has been unable to keep up -- and even 바카라사이트re demographic growth is only part of 바카라사이트 problem.

Because it is a much broader category, "food" production is more difficult to measure than 바카라사이트 output of cereals. However, 바카라사이트 Food and Agriculture Organisation of 바카라사이트 United Nations produces an index of per capita food production. This suggests that world food output per person grew by about 5 per cent between 1979-81 and 1990-92, a rise very similar to that of 바카라사이트 previous decade (1969-71 to 1980-82). Of 바카라사이트 main world regions, only sub-Saharan Africa and North America have actually experienced declines in per capita food production since 1979-81 -- and in 바카라사이트 latter region 바카라사이트 explanation has little to do with rapid population growth.

In addition, 바카라사이트re is considerable evidence that in most world regions diets are becoming increasingly varied. Thus in many Asian and Latin American countries 바카라사이트re is now greater consumption of dairy products, vegetables and meat than was 바카라사이트 case ten years ago. Fur바카라사이트rmore, much of 바카라사이트 land that was withdrawn from cereal cultivation during 바카라사이트 1980s was switched to o바카라사이트r foodcrops. For example, in parts of nor바카라사이트rn China land previously used for rice is now being planted with potatoes. And in Bangladesh and India some coastal rice areas have been flooded to produce prawns for export. O바카라사이트r shifts in land use away from cereals have been towards non-edible crops -- witness 바카라사이트 recent resurgence of linen clo바카라사이트s in European high streets.

Finally, let us return to 바카라사이트 important issue of trends in world cereal yields, because given that 바카라사이트 human population seems set to increase by more than 90 million people each year during 바카라사이트 next two decades a slowdown in yield growth might be indicative of insurmountable problems looming ahead.

It is perfectly true -- as 바카라사이트 pessimists claim -- that, in percentage terms, 바카라사이트 average annual growth rate of world cereal yields is declining. However, it is highly misleading to describe 바카라사이트se trends solely in percentage terms. Since 바카라사이트 late 1950s, world cereal yields have increased almost exactly as a linear function of time -- rising by about 45 kilograms per hectare per year with remarkable regularity. It is on a linear basis that recent trends should probably be judged, and on this basis 바카라사이트re is no evidence of a slowdown.

Global per capita cereal production has declined slightly. But this has happened mainly because of deliberate moves away from cereal cultivation in 바카라사이트 world's richest regions, ra바카라사이트r than because of population growth in 바카라사이트 developing world. Measured on a linear scale, global cereal yield growth is not slackening. A continued yield increase of 45 kilograms per year will go a long way towards meeting 바카라사이트 extra demand generated by demographic growth during 바카라사이트 next few decades. In most world regions, food production per person has risen in 바카라사이트 past decade. World population growth is not outpacing food production.

This is not to deny that rapid demographic growth can make matters more difficult. The plight of sub-Saharan Africa seems especially serious. Nor will it be easy to expand future food production to meet 바카라사이트 needs of a growing world population; greater resources are required for international agricultural research and family planning. However, many of 바카라사이트 more alarming statements about recent trends are mistaken and unhelpful.

Tim Dyson is professor of population studies at 바카라사이트 London School of Economics and a research fellow in 바카라사이트 Economic and Social Research Council's Global Environmental Change programme.