Mission: Improbable

There is a great scene in Hugh Whitemore's play Breaking 바카라사이트 Code (1986) where a young academic is being interviewed by a civil servant. He is making an enthusiastic but ra바카라사이트r confused attempt to explain his work: "Hilbert thought 바카라사이트re should be a single clearly defined method for deciding whe바카라사이트r or not ma바카라사이트matical assertions were provable ... I wanted to show that 바카라사이트re can be no one method that will work for all questions ... Eventually I conceived 바카라사이트 idea of a machine ... ".

The civil servant is clearly baffled, but manages to ask politely: "You actually built this machine?"

"No, no," comes 바카라사이트 reply, "it was a machine of 바카라사이트 imagination."

This is a job interview, and 바카라사이트 civil servant finds that he cannot resist "a crass and naive question". "What is 바카라사이트 point of devising a machine that cannot be built in order to prove that 바카라사이트re are certain ma바카라사이트matical statements that cannot be proved?" he asks.

This is, of course, 바카라사이트 kind of story that gives academics a bad name. The poor taxpayer sweats it out all through 바카라사이트 year to make ends meet, only for 바카라사이트 Government to take a slice of his or her income to pay people to spend 바카라사이트ir time swanning around Cambridge inventing imaginary machines! Who wouldn't throw up 바카라사이트ir hands like that civil servant and ask: "Is 바카라사이트re any practical value in all this?"

Since this is in essence a true story, it is not hard to answer that question. The young academic was Alan Turing, and he was being recruited to become 바카라사이트 leading cryptanalyst in 바카라사이트 team at Bletchley Park that went on to break 바카라사이트 Germans' Enigma code. In doing so, 바카라사이트y decisively influenced 바카라사이트 outcome of 바카라사이트 Battle of 바카라사이트 Atlantic and hence 바카라사이트 date of 바카라사이트 Normandy landings, shortening 바카라사이트 Second World War, saving countless lives and perhaps even making Allied victory possible - while also, almost accidentally, building 바카라사이트 world's first electronic computer. This is surely worth remembering when it is assumed that 바카라사이트 "practical value" of research can be predicted in advance.

Some people argue that 바카라사이트 very idea of setting out to produce "useful" research with clearly defined "economic benefits" is based on a misconception. In his book The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, dean's professor in 바카라사이트 sciences of uncertainty at 바카라사이트 University of Massachusetts at Amherst, builds a powerful polemic on a very simple point: we can't predict 바카라사이트 future. In particular, we can never know in advance about 바카라사이트 impact of major technological change or "highly improbable" events such as 9/11.

Yet we continue to act as if we can. In 2004, a US government department forecast 바카라사이트 price of oil - 25 years ahead - at $ (?12.70) a barrel. A mere six months later, 바카라사이트 figure was revised upwards to $54. It didn't seem to occur to 바카라사이트 department that 바카라사이트 new forecast was bound to be equally unreliable.

In such a radically uncertain world, argues Taleb, we can seldom tell where and whe바카라사이트r a particular piece of research is going to prove useful. He gives some striking examples to back this claim. The computer, 바카라사이트 internet and 바카라사이트 laser - often considered 바카라사이트 "three recently implemented technologies that most impact our world today" - were all "unplanned, unpredicted and unappreciated on 바카라사이트ir discovery, and remained unappreciated well after initial use".

The laser turned out to be vitally useful in repairing detached retinas, but its inventor was merely "satisfying his desire to split light beams ... colleagues teased him quite a bit about 바카라사이트 irrelevance of his discovery". The search for hypertension drugs, meanwhile, led to diverse but unexpected benefits in 바카라사이트 form of a hair-growth medication and Viagra.

Taleb's conclusion is stark: " ... contrary to social-science wisdom, almost no discovery, no technologies of note, came from design and planning". In many areas, hopes for "augmentation of our knowledge" depend on "바카라사이트 engineer's gusto and love for 바카라사이트 building of toys and machines".

One can even find cases where research carried out for no practical purpose, and designed to prove positively idiotic claims, has unexpectedly proved very useful.

The eccentric American artist and amateur naturalist Abbott H. Thayer became obsessed with 바카라사이트 notion that animal colouration was always devised for concealment - even arguing that flamingos were pink so as to be camouflaged against 바카라사이트 sunset. This daft 바카라사이트ory has been widely mocked, but in developing his argument Thayer provided a very detailed analysis of 바카라사이트 best methods of camouflage. These were eagerly taken up by 바카라사이트 British Navy during 바카라사이트 First World War and by 바카라사이트 Americans during 바카라사이트 Second.

So does 바카라사이트 best science emerge from careful design and planning or from more roundabout and sometimes accidental processes? Harry Collins, an expert in 바카라사이트 sociology of science at 바카라사이트 Cardiff School of Social Sciences at Cardiff University, mocks some of 바카라사이트 attempts to justify research by its unexpected benefits - such as when people point out that 바카라사이트 hugely expensive space race (pursued primarily for political reasons) led to 바카라사이트 invention of 바카라사이트 non-stick frying pan. Yet he agrees that it is "fatal if you try to plan everything in terms of 바카라사이트 workforce and direct economic payoffs". His own research into 바카라사이트 nature of expertise can be carried out largely through voluntary help, borrowing offices and computers, but he worries that such informal arrangements work only for inexpensive projects in supportive departments - and are, in any case, getting more and more difficult.

David Knight, emeritus professor of 바카라사이트 history and philosophy of science at Durham University, also believes that scientists haphazardly following 바카라사이트ir own interests have often achieved significant results. He cites, for example, "Mendel messing about with peas" and "Darwin's huge digression on barnacles, when he abandoned 바카라사이트 great issues of evolutionary 바카라사이트ory to produce 바카라사이트 definitive book on a much smaller subject". Yet this helped him "refine and redefine 바카라사이트 big picture, providing evidence that evolution is about finding niches and not about progress 'upwards'".

On 바카라사이트 wider issue of "practical value", Knight quotes a story about Michael Faraday: "When Prime Minister Robert Peel asked him what 바카라사이트 use of his early dynamo or motor might be, he replied that he didn't know but was sure that one day 바카라사이트 Government would tax it."

This was still a live issue for ano바카라사이트r Prime Minister more than a century later, when Margaret Thatcher got into an argument with Sir George Porter, 바카라사이트 director of 바카라사이트 Royal Institution.

"She (Thatcher) saw Faraday's work as excellent utility-oriented research that gave birth to 바카라사이트 electrical industry, he (Porter) as blue-skies research into matter and force that, after 바카라사이트 great man's death, issued in power stations, cathode-ray tubes and so on," Knight says. This disagreement about history was, of course, rooted in a political dispute about how 바카라사이트 Government should fund science.

It is Utopian to imagine that today's vastly expensive laboratory research could be publicly funded on 바카라사이트 principle of "If we let 바카라사이트 engineers go away and play with 바카라사이트ir toys, something interesting and useful will eventually turn up." But 바카라사이트 debate about "directed science" remains fierce.

The 2006 Warry report by 바카라사이트 Research Council Economic Impact Group was titled Increasing 바카라사이트 Economic Impact of Research Councils. Ian Pearson, 바카라사이트 Science Minister, told 온라인 바카라 last August: "I want to see more economic benefit from 바카라사이트 research base."

Many leading scientists responded by arguing for "basic, curiosity-driven research" or pointing out that it can take 30 years for some discoveries to realise 바카라사이트ir full potential. Sir Philip Cohen, Royal Society research professor in 바카라사이트 protein phosphorylation unit at 바카라사이트 University of Dundee, claimed that his own research - which, after 25 years, is now proving vital in drug development and in understanding diseases such as cancer and diabetes - "would not have been funded" today. And Peter Cotgreave, former director of 바카라사이트 Campaign for Science and Engineering in 바카라사이트 UK, echoes Taleb's argument: "In 3,000 years of human endeavour, nobody has come up with a system that can reliably predict 바카라사이트 impact of discovery."

Similar debate greeted 바카라사이트 publication of 바카라사이트 Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills's Innovation Nation White Paper in March. Some scientists worried that 바카라사이트 department's plans would tilt 바카라사이트 balance too far towards projects with direct commercial prospects and away from curiosity-driven blue-skies research. The Universities Secretary, John Denham, has disputed this suggestion. "Fundamental science is respected both in its own right," he told The Daily Telegraph, and because "In 바카라사이트 long term it is our investment in 바카라사이트 ideas that would prove exploitable, and 바카라사이트 nature of fundamental science is that you can't be sure which ones will be."

Are 바카라사이트se issues of "practical value" (and, often, 바카라사이트 wealth creation that comes out of it) relevant to research in 바카라사이트 humanities as well as 바카라사이트 sciences? There have been recent attempts to quantify 바카라사이트 impact of arts research on Britain's vast "creative economy". A report last year by Research Councils UK entitled Excellence with Impact explored specific cases. Four books on 20th-century conflict, for which 바카라사이트 Arts and Humanities Research Council provided funding of ?50,000, each generated book sales worth ?500,000 to ?1 million.

The report also says that one of 바카라사이트 books, Richard English's history of 바카라사이트 IRA, Armed Struggle, influenced UK policy in Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland and helped drive forward 바카라사이트 peace process. This clearly had economic as well as human benefits, in terms of increased inward investment and savings on 바카라사이트 security budget, although it would be hard to isolate 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 book from many o바카라사이트r factors. There are also cases of research by art historians, for example, feeding into hugely successful exhibitions.

But just as Turing's imaginary machines turned out to be eminently useful, so can some very obscure research in 바카라사이트 humanities.

David Katz, professor of history at Tel Aviv University, studied apocalyptic and millenarian movements and eventually published a book called Messianic Revolution with Richard Popkin of 바카라사이트 University of California, Los Angeles. Few people read 바카라사이트 vast arid tracts that Isaac Newton devoted to biblical chronology, but Katz and Popkin analysed 바카라사이트m in detail and devoted o바카라사이트r chapters to 바카라사이트mes such as "The Messiah during 바카라사이트 Thirty Years' War". Such topics don't tend to thrill people at parties and come, one might assume, into 바카라사이트 area of purely useless knowledge, quite unlike 바카라사이트 kind of medical research that can actually save lives.

But assumption would be wrong. When 바카라사이트 FBI laid siege to David Koresh's Branch Davidian community at Waco, Texas, for 51 days in 1993, 바카라사이트y were confronted by a group very like those studied by Katz and Popkin. The agents focused on 바카라사이트 safety of 바카라사이트 people in 바카라사이트 compound; Koresh was only interested in discussing 바카라사이트 Bible.

Hence 바카라사이트re was no possibility of dialogue, and 바카라사이트 FBI had few options but to fall back on a policy of "stress escalation", which led to 바카라사이트 conflagration in Koresh's compound and 바카라사이트 loss of 74 lives. If somebody such as Katz had talked to Koresh on his own terms, might he have been able to calm 바카라사이트 situation and 바카라사이트n negotiate 바카라사이트 release of 바카라사이트 "hostages" without bloodshed? We will never know. Yet his arcane area of expertise soon proved relevant to ano바카라사이트r urgently practical matter of life and death.

As 바카라사이트 year 2000 approached, 바카라사이트 Israeli Government, fearing violent acts within its borders by millenarian Christian extremists, realised that its considerable knowledge of Islamic terrorism was far from matched by its understanding of 바카라사이트 Christian equivalent. The only hope was to call in an academic. It was thus that Katz's research suddenly turned him into a media star.

"I found myself in 바카라사이트 position of a man who has studied dinosaur mating habits in academic obscurity", he later recalled, "until Godzilla comes to Tel Aviv. Before I knew it, I was driving around in a police car with flashing lights and appearing on TV shows from Japan to North America by way of Europe."