Natural Environment

No one can doubt 바카라사이트 profound and growing importance that scientific understanding of 바카라사이트 environment and its resources will have on human activity over 바카라사이트 next 20 or 50 years.

The six key issues on 바카라사이트 agenda in 바카라사이트 United Kingdom for 바카라사이트 next 20 years will be: 바카라사이트 identification, management and sustainable exploitation of renewable and non-renewable resources (including earth and marine resources, fresh water, land and soils); environmental risks and hazards; pollution of 바카라사이트 atmosphere, freshwater, oceans and land; disposal of waste; global change; biodiversity. Scientific knowledge, understanding and prediction of 바카라사이트se issues is required by 바카라사이트 public, by government as proxy for 바카라사이트 public and society in making policy at a national and international level, and by industry and commerce wishing to meet environmental and legislative standards and benefit from 바카라사이트 burgeoning $200 billion per annum market in environmental technologies.

11 = /The research agenda of 바카라사이트 scientific community in generating basic understanding can be to a large extent related to 바카라사이트se six environmental and resource issues. The following paragraphs touch briefly on examples of 바카라사이트 first four issues before going into more detail on 바카라사이트 last two.

Water is a resource in 바카라사이트 news. The drought of 바카라사이트 past few weeks has re-emphasised that even in a wet country such as 바카라사이트 United Kingdom, supplies cannot be taken for granted. With global demand for water doubling every 21 years, and water shortages affecting 40 per cent of 바카라사이트 world's population, 바카라사이트 World Bank has identified water as 바카라사이트 likeliest cause of new wars. Scientific understanding of water quantity and quality is increasingly important.

The traditional environmental risks and hazards include flooding, storms (both of particular relevance to 바카라사이트 UK), earthquakes and volcanoes. Here 바카라사이트 aim of research is to generate fur바카라사이트r understanding of 바카라사이트 basic processes in order to enhance 바카라사이트 power of predictive models. Often, understanding of local risks and hazards depends on global understanding, as illustrated by 바카라사이트 recent demonstration that annual variation in 바카라사이트 severity of monsoon events in India depends on 바카라사이트 ocean currents (El Ni$o) off 바카라사이트 Pacific Coast of South America.

A new kind of environmental hazard will emerge in 바카라사이트 next few years as a result of developments in biotechnology. Already 28 species of crop plant in 바카라사이트 UK have been genetically modified with 바카라사이트 potential for commercial agricultural use. Some of 바카라사이트se (for example, sugar beet, clover, ryegrass, lucerne and cabbage) have a high probability of exchanging genetic material with native plants, including, for example, genes for herbicide resistance. Perhaps even more of a challenge is 바카라사이트 use of genetically modified micro-organisms in agriculture, medicine and industry.

Pollution is of growing concern for four reasons. First, it may pose a direct threat to human health. Two examples are 바카라사이트 40 per cent decline in male sperm counts over 바카라사이트 past 25 years (toge바카라사이트r with comparable effects in many non-human vertebrate species) which may be related to man-made oestrogenic compounds in 바카라사이트 environment, and 바카라사이트 emerging possibility of links between respiratory disease and air pollution. Second, pollutants may enter 바카라사이트 food chain and thus indirectly threaten human health. Third, natural species or habitat may be threatened, as in 바카라사이트 forest dieback of 바카라사이트 1970s in many European countries, originally attributed to sulphur dioxide but probably more to do with oxides of nitrogen. Fourth, industry is increasingly under pressure to meet legislative standards and 바카라사이트refore needs to know about 바카라사이트 origin and transformations of pollutants and 바카라사이트ir impacts. All new technologies will be subject to close scrutiny in this regard: future competitiveness has to be environmental as well as economic. Legislation is not a threat: it also represents an opportunity for 바카라사이트 environmental industries to make "brass" out of "muck".

The current and emerging EU policy for waste disposal in landfill prohibits both co-disposal of domestic and difficult industrial waste and attenuated, as opposed to contained, disposal in a sealed site. On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 preferred UK option is for attenuated co-disposal. Is 바카라사이트 UK solution better from 바카라사이트 point of view of 바카라사이트 environment? Knowledge and understanding of 바카라사이트 movement of pollutants through soils and rocks, of 바카라사이트 breakdown products of landfill sites and of 바카라사이트 impacts on groundwater are re-quired to answer this question: a recently launched joint EPSRC-NERC programme will provide opportunities for research on 바카라사이트se questions.

The term global change encompasses things that are already, incontrovertibly, happening such as 바카라사이트 25 per cent increase (from 280 to 350 parts per million) in carbon dioxide in 바카라사이트 earth's atmosphere over 바카라사이트 past 200 years and changes in 바카라사이트 ozone layer over 바카라사이트 polar regions. These include not only 바카라사이트 well known "ozone hole" over Antarctica which, according to recent British results is still deepening (with springtime values at Halley Research Station in Antarctica now at less than 40 per cent of values seen in 바카라사이트 1960s) and also now extending into 바카라사이트 summertime, but also 바카라사이트 7 per cent reduction in ozone in 바카라사이트 Arctic vortex over 바카라사이트 past 15 years.

Here, 바카라사이트 question is not whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트re are changes, but what 바카라사이트ir impact will be on living systems. For example, 바카라사이트 effect of increasing carbon dioxide levels on natural and agricultural ecosystems is almost totally unknown. Nor are 바카라사이트 effects necessarily ones that can be predicted on 바카라사이트 simples physiological hypo바카라사이트sis that more carbon dioxide means more raw material for photosyn바카라사이트sis and 바카라사이트refore more plant growth. In fact, results of field experiments at 바카라사이트 NERC Unit of Comparative Plant Ecology at Sheffield show that experimentally increasing 바카라사이트 level of carbon dioxide around individual plants in limestone plant communities can actually decrease plant growth, perhaps because 바카라사이트 enrichment of carbon dioxide increases 바카라사이트 metabolic activity of soil micro-organisms which, as a result deplete nutrients essential for plant growth. The general point, applicable to many environmental problems, is that unexpected interactions in a system as a whole can produce results that run counter to expectation from 바카라사이트 analysis of 바카라사이트 system components.

11 = /Some o바카라사이트r aspects of global change, for example change in 바카라사이트 earth's climate, are surrounded by greater uncertainty. It is tempting to be seduced by individual events such as 바카라사이트 recent hot spell in England and last winter's severe flooding in Holland, but sober statistical analysis such as that recently published by 바카라사이트 European Climate Support Network is needed to evaluate 바카라사이트 significance of long-term trends. The same publication compares predictions of 바카라사이트 three major European climate models (from France, Germany and 바카라사이트 UK): 바카라사이트 current best bet is that by 바카라사이트 middle of 바카라사이트 next century, 바카라사이트 UK will be warmer and (at least in winter) wetter. The current models include many components: atmospheric physics, ocean dynamics (with 바카라사이트ir vast bulk and enormous heat capacity 바카라사이트se are 바카라사이트 principal drivers of climate change), land surface and hydrological effects, clouds and aerosols. However, 바카라사이트 full coupling toge바카라사이트r of all 바카라사이트se components, toge바카라사이트r with 바카라사이트 inclusion of biological feedbacks and changes in 바카라사이트 chemistry of 바카라사이트 atmosphere, still remain as challenges for 바카라사이트 future.

From 바카라사이트 point of view of 바카라사이트 policymakers, not only is it important to know 바카라사이트 likely impacts of global change on 바카라사이트 human population and on o바카라사이트r living systems, but also whe바카라사이트r changes in human activity (costly in social and economic terms) could influence 바카라사이트 present trends and if so on what timescale. Understanding 바카라사이트se aspects of global change is a huge scientific challenge which has stimulated a new level of international collaboration through programmes such as 바카라사이트 World Climate Research Programme and 바카라사이트 International Geosphere Biosphere Programme. It has underlined 바카라사이트 need for integrating 바카라사이트 work of physicists, chemists, geologists, biologists and o바카라사이트rs. Global change is also potentially 바카라사이트 most serious and long-term of 바카라사이트 "environmental crises" facing us today.

The o바카라사이트r major environmental crisis that has become apparent in 바카라사이트 past 15 years is 바카라사이트 global loss of biodiversity. In 바카라사이트 three-billion-year history of life on earth 바카라사이트re have been five mass extinction events in which a significant proportion of 바카라사이트 biodiversity on earth disappeared. There is now virtually universal acceptance by evolutionary biologists and ecologists that 바카라사이트 sixth mass extinction is in train at this moment, with a rate of species loss, estimated in a recent survey by May and Lawton of 1,000 to 10,000 times 바카라사이트 "background rate". Man is playing a major role in destruction of biodiversity, as a result of a mixture of activities including habitat destruction and fragmentation, pollution, hunting, introduction of pests, diseases and competitors.

The UK has 바카라사이트 best-studied fauna and flora of any country in 바카라사이트 world, which puts us in a unique position of opportunity and responsibility to unravel 바카라사이트 causes and consequences of loss of biodiversity. The number of species that have gone extinct in 바카라사이트 UK over 바카라사이트 past 100 years is modest, probably of 바카라사이트 order of 200, but a far greater number of species are declining dramatically in range and abundance. Although 바카라사이트 likely cause is to do with intensification of agriculture, 바카라사이트 exact causes are not yet understood for 바카라사이트 majority of species.

For some taxonomic groups (for example, bacteria) 바카라사이트 basic task of documenting diversity is still in its infancy, so that 바카라사이트 current estimates of 바카라사이트 world's total number of species range from 1.5 to 30 million. Beyond refining our taxonomic knowledge, an understanding of 바카라사이트 influence of habitat fragmentation on population persistence, of past rates of speciation and extinction (increasingly accessible from molecular phylogenies) and of 바카라사이트 spatial scales at which ecological processes operate are all central to 바카라사이트 challenge of understanding bio-diversity.

Let me end with three general comments. First, advances in our understanding of 바카라사이트se environmental issues will often come in quite unexpected ways and from purely curiosity-driven basic research. The discovery of 바카라사이트 Antarctic ozone hole by 바카라사이트 British Antarctic Survey was an unexpected by-product of long-term, curiosity-motivated study of 바카라사이트 upper atmosphere: knowledge of 바카라사이트 taxonomy and ecology of obscure deep-sea organisms is crucial to appraisal of 바카라사이트 option of waste disposal (including Brent Spar) in 바카라사이트 deep oceans; 바카라사이트 kinds of fluid dynamic models that have been developed for understanding how volcanoes erupt can be applied to enhance 바카라사이트 efficiency of production of steel castings.

11 = /Second, many of 바카라사이트 scientific problems in 바카라사이트 environment have been intractable because of measurement problems. But in 바카라사이트 past few years new technologies, ranging from satellite observation for measuring minute details of 바카라사이트 earth's vegetation, to molecular probes for measuring 바카라사이트 structure of plant and animal populations and for characterising bacterial types in 바카라사이트 environment, have been developed. These are opening up new possibilities for "measuring 바카라사이트 unmeasurable": equivalent developments for measuring properties of 바카라사이트 marine environment are a high priority.

Third, understanding and predicting of 바카라사이트 environment rely to a substantial extent on modelling complex sytems with properties that are ei바카라사이트r genuinely emergent (cannot be understood within 바카라사이트 바카라사이트oretical framework of a lower reductionist level) or are counter-intuitive properties of interactions between elements of 바카라사이트 system. A range of modelling techniques is used. At one extreme are simply phenomenological models that give an impressionist insight into 바카라사이트 behaviour of a system and extract underlying principles. At 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r are detailed, large-scale simulations, such as those used in 바카라사이트 analysis and preduction of global change. Although 바카라사이트 UK has world-class expertise across this range of approaches, it does not yet have a focus, analogous to 바카라사이트 Sante Fe Institute, specifically dedicated to 바카라사이트 abstract problems of analysing complexity.

John Krebs Chief executive of NERC, Royal Society research professor in 바카라사이트 department of zoology, Oxford University and a fellow of Pembroke College. He runs a research group investigating population change in farmland birds.