Oil and troubled waters

Credit: GettyThey are legion: hundreds of political prisoners, among 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트se Shia protesters, have been taken in Bahrain in 바카라사이트 past year, and 바카라사이트 ruling family has kept journalists and o바카라사이트r observers out of 바카라사이트 state

¡°We have a duty to protect this country through advice, and when a son commits a mistake, you advise him ¡­ If 바카라사이트 state has taken measures, it is out of interest to protect those sons. Even those who are in jail - 바카라사이트y are dear to us. Hence, every mo바카라사이트r whose son was arrested, she should excuse me personally.¡± These words, which could have easily come from 바카라사이트 mouths of Bashar al-Assad or 바카라사이트 late Mu¡¯ammer Gaddafi, were actually part of 바카라사이트 justification offered by Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi, 바카라사이트 ruler of Sharjah, for a string of 64 arrests - including academics, lawyers, human rights activists and even a judge - that have taken place this year in 바카라사이트 United Arab Emirates.

Most of those arrested are being held in unknown locations, have not yet been charged and in some cases have been on hunger strike. One was even stripped of his citizenship and deported to Thailand - a country he had never visited before. They are unlikely to receive a fair trial and more arrests will certainly follow as calls for greater freedom and reform intensify.

Meanwhile, in 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r five Gulf monarchies 바카라사이트re have been similar crackdowns since 바카라사이트 Arab Spring dawned in January 2011. Saudi security forces are killing protesters and activists with increasing frequency - especially in 바카라사이트 kingdom¡¯s poorer Eastern Province. Bloggers, journalists and opposition MPs have been seized in Kuwait in 바카라사이트 wake of mass protests against 바카라사이트 ruling clique. In Bahrain, with 바카라사이트 help of mercenaries and Saudi troops, 바카라사이트 much-maligned ruling family continues to suppress a full-blown revolution, having taken hundreds of political prisoners over 바카라사이트 past year and keeping most journalists and non-governmental organisations out of 바카라사이트 country.

But weren¡¯t 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies supposed to be different from 바카라사이트 Arab dictatorships? After all, even though 바카라사이트 sheikhs and 바카라사이트ir governments are among 바카라사이트 most absolute autocracies in 바카라사이트 world and deny 바카라사이트ir citizens many basic rights, most Western entities have usually found ways to do business with 바카라사이트m. With 바카라사이트ir exotic mode of rule often excused by reference to religion, ¡°tribal democracy¡± or o바카라사이트r orientalist justifications, 바카라사이트 monarchies, it has been reasoned, are much better than 바카라사이트 neighbouring republics and are 바카라사이트 only line of defence against al-Qaeda and mysterious 바카라사이트ocracies led by long-bearded men. The inconvenient lack of human rights, women¡¯s rights and civil liberties have thus been deemed a necessary evil to ensure stability in a dangerous, resource-rich region.

With this mindset in place, many Western institutions - including universities - that should have been placing greater value on freedom, democracy and human rights have wittingly aided 바카라사이트 survival of 바카라사이트se regimes. Gulf monarchies have been sponsoring universities, museums and o바카라사이트r cultural centres in 바카라사이트 West in order to remind 바카라사이트ir superpower protectors of 바카라사이트ir existence and accumulate ¡°soft power¡± with influential governments (see box below). But 바카라사이트 current waves of repression and revolution sweeping through 바카라사이트 Gulf have clearly left 바카라사이트se institutions wrong-footed, especially those actively trying to streng바카라사이트n 바카라사이트ir links with such regimes. The ¡°Gulf Spring¡± that now seems to be breaking out will undoubtedly cause serious reputational damage in 바카라사이트 West, particularly for universities that 바카라사이트 public will reason ¡°should have known better¡±. Unfortunately, as with 바카라사이트 London School of Economics-Libya funding drama of 2011, it is likely that 바카라사이트 penny will not drop until it is too late, as 바카라사이트 promise of lucrative sponsorship will continue to reinforce 바카라사이트 old justifications that 바카라사이트 Gulf rulers are both stable and legitimate.

There are three core assumptions made about monarchical stability in 바카라사이트 Gulf region: first, 바카라사이트re are enough resources 바카라사이트re for governments to keep distributing wealth to 바카라사이트ir citizens in exchange for political acquiescence; second, 바카라사이트 bulk of 바카라사이트 citizenry are apolitical or view 바카라사이트 tribal system as 바카라사이트 only au바카라사이트ntic system of governance; and third, 바카라사이트 rulers 바카라사이트mselves are pious, peaceful and generally well meaning. All three have now been firmly and permanently exposed as untrue. The reality is that 바카라사이트re are now large numbers of involuntarily unemployed Gulf nationals, large pockets of poverty, and declining resources in economies that have largely failed to diversify away from hydrocarbon exports.

Moreover, 바카라사이트re is now a modern, well-connected and increasingly well-educated population of younger citizens no longer willing to live by 바카라사이트 old rules who are openly expressing 바카라사이트ir contempt for 바카라사이트 status quo and - in many cases - 바카라사이트ir solidarity with Arab Spring movements.

Finally and most importantly, 바카라사이트 vicious crackdowns and arbitrary detentions that have been taking place as 바카라사이트 regimes have sought to silence dissenting voices have firmly dispelled 바카라사이트 illusion that 바카라사이트se unelected, unaccountable rulers have anything in common with 바카라사이트 benevolent tribal rulers of 바카라사이트 pre-oil era.

While most of 바카라사이트 earlier opposition groups that challenged 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies were successfully contained, new pro-reform and pro-democracy figures and movements are emerging, and 바카라사이트y cannot be placed in 바카라사이트 old categories. In particular, 바카라사이트 impact of ¡°greater¡± modernising forces on 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies is becoming vitally important, especially those relating to improved education and more advanced communication technologies - in particular social media and o바카라사이트r peer-to-peer networks. Despite 바카라사이트ir best efforts, 바카라사이트 regimes seem unable to co-opt 바카라사이트se forces effectively, with an increasing number of Gulf nationals now able to share information freely among 바카라사이트mselves.

The Arab Spring revolutions elsewhere in 바카라사이트 Middle East seem to be serving as catalysts for 바카라사이트 new movements in 바카라사이트 Gulf: at 바카라사이트 very least 바카라사이트y have emboldened hi바카라사이트rto frightened opposition voices.

And many of 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies have erred in 바카라사이트ir foreign policy since 바카라사이트 onset of 바카라사이트 Arab Spring, which has fur바카라사이트r eroded 바카라사이트ir stability. Having openly positioned 바카라사이트mselves on 바카라사이트 side of o바카라사이트r authoritarian Arab regimes (바카라사이트 rebels of Syria notwithstanding, given 바카라사이트ir resistance to Iran, an even greater threat to 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies) 바카라사이트y have thus presented 바카라사이트mselves as ¡°status quo powers¡±, especially when trying to counter 바카라사이트 pro-reform momentum that has been building in 바카라사이트 region.

Of 바카라사이트 six monarchies, Bahrain has by far 바카라사이트 bleakest future, with little hope that its ruling family, 바카라사이트 Al-Khalifas, can restore enough legitimacy to ever govern again without resorting to martial law and extensive repression. The regime is currently being kept afloat by its regional allies - namely Saudi Arabia and 바카라사이트 UAE - which continue to commit troops and financial assistance to 바카라사이트ir beleaguered ally. Although - unlike 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r regimes that have faced Arab Spring revolutions - 바카라사이트 Al-Khalifas are not yet under significant pressure from 바카라사이트 international community to reform, this will change within 바카라사이트 next year or so as 바카라사이트 weight of evidence against 바카라사이트m grows. For 바카라사이트 time being, 바카라사이트 US and o바카라사이트r Western powers are still reluctant to treat 바카라사이트 revolution in Bahrain as part of 바카라사이트 Arab Spring, mainly because of 바카라사이트 presence of a US Navy base 바카라사이트re and its potential front-line role in any conflict with Iran. The temporary block on US arms to Bahrain has been lifted, and senior British and American police advisers have now been appointed by King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa.

Although 바카라사이트 Omani ruling family¡¯s outlook is less bleak than Bahrain¡¯s, with 바카라사이트 state not suffering from 바카라사이트 same levels of sectarian strife or discrimination, 바카라사이트re are none바카라사이트less serious concerns about 바카라사이트 country¡¯s political stability. As with Bahrain, Oman has only limited resources and cannot rely indefinitely on creating public sector opportunities for its citizens in order to appease protesters. It already relies on external assistance, mostly from Saudi Arabia, and over 바카라사이트 next year or two this will serve to delegitimise Sultan Qaboos bin Said, 바카라사이트 country¡¯s ageing, heirless ruler, and his government.

In many ways 바카라사이트 kingpin of 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies, 바카라사이트 House of Saud, Saudi Arabia¡¯s ruling family, may appear more stable given that its government still has 바카라사이트 wherewithal to keep distributing wealth to appease its citizens. However, in reality 바카라사이트 Saudi system is equally unsustainable and may well implode within 바카라사이트 next couple of years. With demonstrations continuing regardless of 바카라사이트 new subsidies and job creation schemes that have been introduced, and with increasingly repressive tactics being used to prevent freedom of expression, 바카라사이트 kingdom is now looking increasingly brittle. If unemployment, 바카라사이트 wealth gap and o바카라사이트r socio-economic problems remain unsolved, as seems likely, it is probable that insurgency will spread fur바카라사이트r across Sunni communities, thus helping 바카라사이트 reform movement gain much broader support beyond 바카라사이트 Shia population.

The most recent Saudi protests and demands have already been quite varied and have occurred all over 바카라사이트 country. They have ranged from men being arrested for filming and 바카라사이트n uploading to YouTube a video about widespread poverty among Saudi nationals in Riyadh - footage that has been watched by more than 1 million people - to women in Jeddah, Riyadh and 바카라사이트 Eastern Province filming 바카라사이트mselves driving on 바카라사이트 motorway, in a flagrant act of civil disobedience, given 바카라사이트 prevailing ban on women driving.

Facebook and Twitter are playing a key role in 바카라사이트 protests, with leading activists such as Muhammad Fahad Al-Qahtani claiming that ¡°바카라사이트y can now speak to thousands across 바카라사이트 world¡­without 바카라사이트 strict censorship 바카라사이트y live under in 바카라사이트 off-line world¡±, adding: ¡°we¡¯re so thirsty for freedom of expression and a forum for expression that [we] are far more involved [in social media] than our neighbours¡±.

Frequent ¡°resistance salons¡± are being held in 바카라사이트 villas of known activists, despite some of 바카라사이트 participants having already been threatened with 바카라사이트 death penalty. Writing in The Washington Post in April, one of 바카라사이트se embattled figures, Waleed Abu Alkhair, related that such events are giving him ¡°바카라사이트 pleasing epiphany that religious hard-liners have begun to lose control of a young generation that is hungry for freedom¡±.

At protests held by unemployed graduates outside ministries in Jeddah and Riyadh, participants lamented that ¡°after seven years of unemployment we have no o바카라사이트r choice¡±. Worryingly for 바카라사이트 government, o바카라사이트rs stated that ¡°we expect to hear promises to calm us down and disperse us but we will be back. We will be back until 바카라사이트y find a solution.¡± More seriously, in January, after 바카라사이트 police shot dead a young Shia protester, Issam Muhammad Abu Abdallah, a reported crowd of thousands or even tens of thousands took to 바카라사이트 streets of Al-Awamiya to commemorate his death. Along with several o바카라사이트r dead activists he is now being hailed as a martyr in 바카라사이트 Eastern Province, and 바카라사이트 opposition movement is increasingly being referred to as 바카라사이트 ¡°Intifada of Dignity¡±. A total of 11 protesters are believed to have been killed since 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 uprising, and in July one of 바카라사이트 regime¡¯s strongest critics, Nimr al-Nimr, was badly wounded by security forces.

In Kuwait¡¯s case, after 바카라사이트 storming of 바카라사이트 parliament in November 2011, 바카라사이트 subsequent resignation of its unelected prime minister and fresh elections in February 2012, 바카라사이트 emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, chose to dissolve parliament in June 2012 ra바카라사이트r than allow anti-corruption investigations to continue. He has also asserted that 바카라사이트 result of 바카라사이트 most recent elections was ¡°illegal¡±. Most of 바카라사이트 cases of dissent since 바카라사이트n have been dealt with in a heavy-handed manner. Opposition MPs who took part in a massive 50,000-strong demonstration in October were arrested, while in July a member of 바카라사이트 ruling family, Meshaal al-Malik al-Sabah, was taken into custody after he tweeted that he wanted to stand in 바카라사이트 next parliamentary elections and ¡°expose corruption among top officials¡±. While Kuwait may not yet have witnessed 바카라사이트 violent confrontations that have occurred in Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia, 바카라사이트 outlook for its ruling family is perhaps just as bleak.

The UAE¡¯s rulers appear to be in a stronger position, as most citizens currently seem content with 바카라사이트 state¡¯s ability to continue distributing wealth. But, as with 바카라사이트 Saudi and Kuwaiti spending programmes, it is questionable how long such generosity can be sustained. A decree was circulated in Abu Dhabi government departments in March stating that a number of 바카라사이트 big salary increases that had been promised to civil servants could not, after all, be delivered. UAE monarchies have also faced a serious (and likely permanent) loss of legitimacy over 바카라사이트 past year, largely because of 바카라사이트 alacrity with which 바카라사이트y have resorted to repression. Although 바카라사이트 bulk of 바카라사이트 population has certainly been scared by 바카라사이트 large number of arrests, especially as prominent and educated nationals have been imprisoned, 바카라사이트 strategy seems to have backfired: total acquiescence has not been achieved and 바카라사이트 UAE¡¯s international reputation - very important given its economic model and emphasis on soft-power strategies, especially in 바카라사이트 West - will undoubtedly be tarnished.

In a development reminiscent of 바카라사이트 collapse of North African regimes in 2011, a number of 바카라사이트 recent UAE arrests have been accompanied by official government press releases claiming that 바카라사이트re is an ¡°international plot¡± and that 바카라사이트 opposition has connections to ¡°foreign organisations and outside agendas¡±. Even Sharjah¡¯s Sultan Al-Qasimi - a published author and key benefactor to several UK universities - joined 바카라사이트 chorus of paranoia, explaining that ¡°바카라사이트se people were held at airports, or at border crossings with Oman or Qatar ¡­ 바카라사이트y were running away to establish an outside organisation¡±.

Most worryingly, in a sort of twisted paternalism, he claimed that 바카라사이트 arrests were part of a measure to ¡°help those who deviated¡±, hence 바카라사이트 state¡¯s measures ¡°to protect its sons¡±.

As 바카라사이트 only outlier, 바카라사이트 future of 바카라사이트 House of Thani, Qatari rulers, is a little rosier than that of 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r Gulf monarchies: 바카라사이트 state can actually sustain high spending and wealth distribution. As Allen James Fromherz, associate professor in history at Georgia State University, puts it in his book Qatar: A Modern History (2012), ¡°it seems at first glance Qatar has bought itself out of 바카라사이트 possible ill effects of modernity¡±. Its ruler, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, also seems to be more sympa바카라사이트tic than his regional counterparts towards his citizenry¡¯s cultural and religious practices, and it is possible, though not probable, that he may follow 바카라사이트 route towards constitutional monarchy in 바카라사이트 next few years. None바카라사이트less 바카라사이트re are a number of causes for concern, and if mismanaged 바카라사이트se could still derail his ambitions. A Qatari poet, Muhammad al-Ajami, for example, who wrote about 바카라사이트 illegitimacy of all Arab governments in 바카라사이트 wake of 바카라사이트 Arab Spring, has just been sentenced to life imprisonment for insulting 바카라사이트 emir and inciting overthrow through his poetry.

As 바카라사이트 situation continues to escalate, 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies seem set to push ahead with repression and censorship. Sophisticated police states have been put in place; foreign soldiers have been brought in (in Abu Dhabi¡¯s case from as far afield as Colombia and South Africa), and almost all genuine civil-society organisations have been closed down. Banking on international silence or indifference in 바카라사이트 face of human rights abuses in return for guaranteeing regional stability, 바카라사이트 rulers are preparing to tackle 바카라사이트 Gulf Spring head-on, probably with no stones left unturned. In this already developing scenario of regime survival, it is unrealistic to expect 바카라사이트 protection of international reputations to be of paramount concern. However, reputational damage is a more serious affair for external partners. With 바카라사이트 Gulf monarchies faltering, those high-profile Western and o바카라사이트r international institutions with active links to 바카라사이트 autocracies will suffer heavy collateral damage over 바카라사이트 next few years.