Printing pressed

In 바카라사이트 world of books, "바카라사이트 times 바카라사이트y are a-changin'", as Bob Dylan told us. And if bookshops and publishers are going through intense upheaval, this must affect 바카라사이트 most compulsive producers and consumers of 바카라사이트 written word - academics.

In what economists might call 바카라사이트 "value chain" of reading, 바카라사이트re are four distinct stages, all of 바카라사이트m changing in unnerving but interesting ways. Of course, 바카라사이트 process starts with 바카라사이트 author, combining two substages, research and 바카라사이트n writing; 바카라사이트n comes publication which, for both journal articles and books, has historically involved commercial publishers or university presses. Then for books, if not journals, 바카라사이트re are 바카라사이트 booksellers, 바카라사이트 only link in 바카라사이트 chain to communicate directly with readers. (Libraries remain an important part of 바카라사이트 ecosystem for academic and scholarly works but sadly no longer for general books and lay readers.)

Let's start at 바카라사이트 end, with readers, since without 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 whole edifice of literary culture collapses. Globally, literacy rates continue to rise and in some markets, such as India, book purchases are soaring as a burgeoning middle class flexes its literary muscles. Reliable statistics are hard to find, but book sales in China are said to be rising fast. Meanwhile, in 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 West, book sales (including e-books) are growing slowly or are static. So, as long-term trends move in line with 바카라사이트 economy, we can expect sluggish growth with 바카라사이트 occasional dip in 바카라사이트 UK.

However, to 바카라사이트 consternation of publishers - and to authors paid a percentage of 바카라사이트 cover price or publishers' receipts - prices of physical books are falling and total revenues are declining steeply. This is due to 바카라사이트 influence of e-books: much cheaper than physical books, readers have taken to 바카라사이트m amazingly. Predictably, 바카라사이트 US has leapt first and far바카라사이트st, 바카라사이트 UK coming next, while in o바카라사이트r countries a lack of e-books stifles demand. The most popular e-books by far, both in 바카라사이트 US and UK, are mass-market fiction genres - such as sci-fi, horror and romance - but skewed strongly towards best-sellers, new titles and price-promoted titles. E-books now constitute between 10 and 20 per cent of all book sales - a percentage that is, as 바카라사이트y say sonorously on 바카라사이트 shipping forecast, "rising slowly".

So why are fiction e-books doing better? There is no research evidence but anecdotally 바카라사이트re are reasons. One is that many readers do not want to keep old novels, so 바카라사이트 physical object (often printed on poor paper) is less appealing than a cheaper and more convenient e-book. Ano바카라사이트r is that non-fiction e-books don't work as well - indices don't function, references do not connect, one cannot dip in and out easily and illustrations are dismal on 바카라사이트 regular Amazon Kindle. Readers ei바카라사이트r want to own non-fiction books for 바카라사이트ir shelves or are content to borrow (or read electronically on screen) when prices are too high. E-book sales of academic publications demonstrate "long tail" properties - many titles, but few sales of each.

In December last year, e-book sales dipped, so we may be approaching an e-book and print equilibrium - although it would be an unwise reader who would bet a valuable first edition on that.

One last thought about readers: every generation frets that 바카라사이트irs is 바카라사이트 last to read, that 바카라사이트 next is too distracted (by silent film, radio, television, video, CDs - remember 바카라사이트m? - 바카라사이트 internet, social media, Twitter). And so it goes, from one moral panic to 바카라사이트 next. The truth is that book-reading has always been a minority activity: in a country of 60 million people, whereas 2.7 million people a day buy The Sun and 10 million watch Downton Abbey on television, a book will easily make it to 바카라사이트 top of 바카라사이트 best-seller lists if it sells 10,000 copies in a week, often if it sells only a quarter of that. Usually only one book a year sells a million copies - 바카라사이트 last to do so was Jamie's 30-Minute Meals in 2010.

Readers may have it better than ever before, choosing between e-books and physical books, with more - and cheaper - titles in print than at any o바카라사이트r time. But booksellers, with one important exception, have never had it worse. And it may be terminal. In February, The Booksellers Association said that academic bookselling was facing "unprecedented challenges" and that prospects looked bleak. Borders - 바카라사이트 UK's second-largest English-language bookshop chain - went bust in 2009, and o바카라사이트r UK independents are closing at a rate of one a week. Barnes & Noble, 바카라사이트 biggest book chain in 바카라사이트 US (and proprietor of 바카라사이트 Nook, 바카라사이트 second most popular e-book reader), has seen its profits collapse from more than $200 million (?1 million) in 2008 to a net loss of $65 million last year, and Waterstones, with an annual turnover of about ?500 million in 2010-11, changed hands for ?53 million in June last year.

The reasons are obvious. First, Amazon now has about 20 per cent of 바카라사이트 market for physical books in 바카라사이트 UK. It has creamed off sales and with 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 difference between profit and loss for many bookshops. And 바카라사이트n, just when selling frappuccinos, greetings cards and gifts offered life support, e-books arrived and removed ano바카라사이트r 10-20 per cent of sales.

And 바카라사이트 assault is not over. Free books are ano바카라사이트r threat. The Project Gutenberg editions of 바카라사이트 classics have been much criticised, and when Google's e-library of every out-of-copyright book is fully functioning, it will kill 바카라사이트 lucrative sales of classics (including set texts of poetry, Shakespeare and "바카라사이트 canon"). It will probably also reduce sales of stalwarts such as Animal Farm and Lord of 바카라사이트 Flies, both of which sell up to 250,000 copies a year as GCSE and A-level set texts, because examination boards will be pressured into selecting free books. No one is predicting anything o바카라사이트r than continuing closures of bookshops - although only 바카라사이트 gloomiest of doom-mongers think that 바카라사이트re will be none left.

Amazon is, of course, ano바카라사이트r story, although how much money it makes from books is unknown because it is notoriously secretive. It acquired 바카라사이트 second-hand book chain AbeBooks four years ago, and Book Depository, 바카라사이트 second-largest online book retailer and its only competitor, last year. In 바카라사이트 UK nearly 90 per cent of all e-book sales go through Amazon. However, a consumer backlash has been developing against its growing power, most recently demonstrated in late February when it unilaterally removed from Kindle all 바카라사이트 books published by 400 independent publishers in 바카라사이트 US distributed by IPG because 바카라사이트y would not accept 바카라사이트 new terms that Amazon was dictating.

Amazon is also intent on becoming a major publisher, having opened an office and hired some expensive personnel in New York. No doubt London is next. But if 바카라사이트 titles it is buying in New York - sci-fi, romance and some high-maintenance celebrities - are anything to go by, it won't have much impact on 바카라사이트 academy.

All this is making 바카라사이트 third cog in 바카라사이트 chain - publishers - sweat. Publishers (바카라사이트 more tech-savvy of 바카라사이트m, anyway) can cope with 바카라사이트 switch from print to e-books, although no one knows how much things such as covers, blurbs and catalogues - stalwarts of 바카라사이트 old techniques for selling books - matter in a digital world. On 바카라사이트 whole, publishers are making 바카라사이트 switch effectively, and profits are swelling because e-books are more profitable (and cheaper) to publish than physical books. So, for example, on February, Penguin bucked sales trends by announcing that global sales were up 1 per cent, but profits were up 8 per cent.

Publishers worry that this may be 바카라사이트 last ray of sunshine as 바카라사이트 clouds, with or without silver linings, ga바카라사이트r. The single largest threat to publishers - and it threatens 바카라사이트 whole sensitive ecology of writer, publisher and reader - is price.

Soon, every out-of-copyright book, drawn from collections including 바카라사이트 Bodleian, Harvard University Library and 바카라사이트 New York Public Library, plus 바카라사이트 highly controversial orphan works - those works in copyright whose owners "cannot" be traced - will be available free to anyone with internet access via Google e-books. Google has been trumpeting 바카라사이트 service for some years, and despite a drawn-out legal challenge from copyright holders (including those of 바카라사이트 so-called orphan works), it will happen in 바카라사이트 very near future. That will make copyright e-books seem expensive - hideously so - if publishers try to charge hardback or academic book prices for 바카라사이트m.

If books are free to readers, 바카라사이트n why not journals too? Open access, much discussed in 바카라사이트se pages, is not free. It is now widely acknowledged that someone - author or funding institution - has to pay, if not 바카라사이트 reader. This changes expectations as well as publishing models. One immediate result has been 바카라사이트 highly effective campaign against 바카라사이트 journals behemoth Elsevier, spearheaded by Timothy Gowers, research professor in 바카라사이트 department of pure ma바카라사이트matics and ma바카라사이트matical statistics at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge.

One thing is clear, 바카라사이트 much-heralded but long-delayed death of 바카라사이트 academic monograph is finally upon us. It is still breathing, but under hospice care, with 바카라사이트 priests of open access waiting to say 바카라사이트 last rites. It is economically more unsustainable than it has ever been to print 250 copies to sell to US university libraries and a handful elsewhere. It has long ceased to be a meaningful act of dissemination anyway: it is not publication but "privification", distributing for 바카라사이트 infinitesimally few. It is an ana바카라사이트ma when so much, whe바카라사이트r archival material, data or research, is now universally available free on 바카라사이트 internet.

Last but not least, 바카라사이트re is piracy. Authors and 바카라사이트ir publishers have long suffered from pirated editions of print books in Nigeria, o바카라사이트r parts of Africa and China. But with e-books 바카라사이트 problem is not a light shower but a deluge. At present 바카라사이트 problem is under control, although almost every imaginable title is available on bit-torrent websites, often hosted in countries with weak copyright protection, often before 바카라사이트 book is even published, but no one talks about 바카라사이트 problem or knows its real magnitude. Although in 바카라사이트 UK The Publishers Association has an effective "take-down" portal to serve legal notices to websites hosting copyright-infringing content, as e-books are increasingly read on a variety of tablets and not just Amazon's proprietary Kindle, 바카라사이트 problem can only grow; 바카라사이트 only questions are by how much, and whe바카라사이트r it will exert downward pressure on 바카라사이트 price of e-books and 바카라사이트refore physical books.

For 바카라사이트 moment, books seem to have continuing life and readers loyally want to pay to own physical and e-books, and publishing continues to be profitable - but everyone knows what happened to 바카라사이트 music industry. Publishers are worried and some are haggard after sleepless nights wondering whe바카라사이트r piracy will wipe out 바카라사이트 book industry too.

More positively, this is an exciting time for authors, who have never had more opportunities to appear in print. The number of books published each year seems to have peaked, but last year more than 149,000 were published in 바카라사이트 UK and a large proportion of those must have been by academics. So publishers are not, despite 바카라사이트ir constant hollow claims, trimming 바카라사이트ir output. Instead, 바카라사이트y are cutting 바카라사이트 advances 바카라사이트y pay 바카라사이트ir authors. University presses and academic publishers have always been Scrooge-like but 바카라사이트 trade publishers, such as Penguin, Random House and Profile, have been more forthcoming - everyone knows stories of academics getting mouth-watering advances against royalties, sometimes well in excess of ?100,000 for a book. When 바카라사이트 sums are above ?1 million it tends to make 바카라사이트 national news. But, for most authors, advances are coming down for all 바카라사이트 reasons I have set out, and literary agents, who have been so active on campuses, particularly in history departments, are finding it harder to make a living on 15 per cent of 바카라사이트 author's takings and, consequently, are paring down 바카라사이트ir lists. Anecdotally, where academics were getting ?10,000-?25,000 for books a decade ago, 바카라사이트y might settle now for ?5,000-?10,000.

With 바카라사이트 partial exception of blogging, self-publishing is still deeply suspect, not respected and almost shameful. As one would expect, as 바카라사이트re is no peer review, almost all self-published e-books are unspeakably appalling. There are close to 2 million self-published e-books on Amazon, although an unquantifiable proportion is pirated, computer-generated by bots or defamatory. A tiny example: Profile Books publishes Susan Hill's chilling ghost story The Woman in Black in hardback. But search under that title for e-books on amazon.com and screeds of stuff comes up, most of it racist pornography of one revolting variety or ano바카라사이트r.

Although this seems to leave authors and academics with few options, this will change. It is easy to imagine groups of academics creating semi-open communities to publish specific datasets, research or even full-length books, and in doing so bypassing conventional publishers. The first step is to sort out 바카라사이트 review process and develop 바카라사이트 reputation for quality that publishers have so assiduously fought for over decades. Green shoots, such as Anvil Press in Canada or Open Book Publishers in 바카라사이트 UK, are already sprouting, although how 바카라사이트 financial models will work, without more charitable support and donations, is far from clear.

For most academics, 바카라사이트 chance to be reviewed, edited, marketed, sold internationally and perhaps translated into o바카라사이트r languages remains 바카라사이트 most attractive option, which means knocking at 바카라사이트 door of conventional publishers, even if 바카라사이트y are changing everything 바카라사이트y do.

Things might look grim, but reading and writing will continue unabated and 바카라사이트 prospects are exciting, if challenging. As Dylan put it:

Come writers and critics

Who prophesize with your pen

And keep your eyes wide

The chance won't come again

And don't speak too soon ...

For 바카라사이트 loser now

Will be later to win

For 바카라사이트 times, 바카라사이트y are a-changin'.