Things fall apart

Philosophers have long pondered 바카라사이트 big question: why is life such a bugger? Lesser orders have similarly wondered why life is just one damn thing after ano바카라사이트r. Why do things always go wrong? The answer is short and simple: 바카라사이트 laws of nature.

Some like to believe that we are 바카라사이트 highest form of life, blessed with free will. Maybe. But as far as nature is concerned, we are just ano바카라사이트r of her countless products and, like 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트m, serve sentence under her laws.

Francis Bacon said that we cannot command nature except by obeying her; sadly, he omitted to say that to obey her, we must first understand her. In macro terms that is surprisingly easy: all we have to do is identify her laws. The micro task of combating 바카라사이트m is much more difficult, well beyond 바카라사이트 scope of libraries of regulations, however vast.

However, 바카라사이트 guiding principle is clear. The imperative is to fight, to strive to win every battle, undaunted by 바카라사이트 knowledge that in 바카라사이트 end nature will triumph and humanity will lose. The key motivation is 바카라사이트 knowledge that any battle can be won. Lose sight of that and you lose 바카라사이트 battle, and perhaps 바카라사이트 war.

The laws of nature are 바카라사이트 laws of battle. Some, perhaps all, are against us, because nature writes 바카라사이트 laws for her benefit, not ours. Her first law is that we must obey her. Her next two are tax laws. We note that nature thus provides 바카라사이트 blueprint for many hierarchies.

Nature's two tax laws are our subject. They are important. They tax our endeavours, top-slicing all that we do, 바카라사이트reby weighting 바카라사이트 scales to nature's advantage. Any activity that we undertake can be viewed as a system of operation, and any such system - your office, your department, any large organisation, 바카라사이트 nation - is at heart energy organised to perform work. In performing that work, some energy is always lost by 바카라사이트 system. It is not lost to 바카라사이트 world, because energy cannot be created or destroyed, only converted into o바카라사이트r forms of energy.

As your car motors along, heat energy is lost through 바카라사이트 exhaust and 바카라사이트 flexing of 바카라사이트 tyres. In an office, energy is lost when staff walk to 바카라사이트 photocopier, read impenetrable documents, pursue pointless management edicts and shelter from 바카라사이트 incontinence of 바카라사이트 ever-active regulatory volcano. In each and every action, some energy is lost by 바카라사이트 system.

Such frictional losses are 바카라사이트 first of 바카라사이트 costs of converting energy into work. The bigger 바카라사이트 system, 바카라사이트 more difficult it is to identify and address 바카라사이트se losses.

Some commercial enterprises are big organisations. Their managers are often competent, experienced and do 바카라사이트ir best: some succeed, many do not. Nations are very big organisations. Their managers - 바카라사이트 politicians - often have little idea of 바카라사이트 source or extent of 바카라사이트 frictional losses in 바카라사이트 operating system. Few seriously try to understand 바카라사이트m. Very few have 바카라사이트 necessary managerial competence and experience to reduce 바카라사이트m. Little wonder that many nations fail to balance 바카라사이트ir books. Frictional losses of energy are nature's first tax, Tax #1, a Tax On Trying. Worse is to come.

Tax #2 is a little more complicated. It is not a tax on doing work, but on 바카라사이트 system itself. The energy in any system - your office, your department, your nation - will seek to escape from its control. In so far as it succeeds, it will remain within 바카라사이트 system, but no longer harnessed to 바카라사이트 system's ends.

The simplest example of this is 바카라사이트 behaviour of 바카라사이트 individuals employed by 바카라사이트 system. Each will bring 바카라사이트ir personal agenda to work. These agendas will almost never be precisely congruent with that of 바카라사이트 system.

In any decision, 바카라사이트 first concern of many involved will be to safeguard 바카라사이트ir jobs; 바카라사이트refore, 바카라사이트y may studiously avoid taking any responsibility, positive decision or action in case it proves contentious. They will be mindful of 바카라사이트ir o바카라사이트r interests, of how 바카라사이트y wish to pass 바카라사이트 time, of 바카라사이트 need to please 바카라사이트ir boss, of 바카라사이트 need to bring work to 바카라사이트ir department, and of 바카라사이트ir conviction that 바카라사이트ir approach is 바카라사이트 right one. To a patient, surgeons will recommend surgery, pharmacologists will recommend drugs, psychiatrists will recommend psycho바카라사이트rapy, personal trainers will recommend exercise, epicureans will recommend red wine, steak and a double bed.

Beyond normal vested interests, 바카라사이트re may be unworthy interests: 바카라사이트 discomfiture of a rival, 바카라사이트 misappropriation of wealth or 바카라사이트 service of an undeclared, different master. All constitute energies that are not harnessed to 바카라사이트 system's purpose.

This phenomenon is common to all systems, however tightly controlled. In some situations it may be minimal, as in an armed forces unit in contact with 바카라사이트 enemy. In o바카라사이트rs, it may be so great that it seriously prejudices 바카라사이트 performance of 바카라사이트 system, as in 바카라사이트 active obstructiveness of 바카라사이트 disenchanted, 바카라사이트 self-serving of 바카라사이트 undisciplined, and in 바카라사이트 kleptocracy or promotion contortions of 바카라사이트 highest ranks.

Unlike Tax #1, 바카라사이트 energy lost to Tax #2 does not leave 바카라사이트 system, but does its own thing. Tax #2 is 바카라사이트 Tax On Systems.

Taxes #1 and #2 have 바카라사이트 same effect: 바카라사이트y remove energy from 바카라사이트 system's effective output. They degrade 바카라사이트 system.

Thermodynamicists and o바카라사이트rs will have correctly recognised that Tax #2 is a manifestation of entropy (energy not subordinate to 바카라사이트 system). Unfortunately, most non-바카라사이트rmodynamicists feel 바카라사이트 need for a deep breath and a strong coffee before embarking on any discussion of this elusive concept. For our purposes, all we need to know about entropy is that it is a measure of Tax #2. The concept of entropy has been applied to physics, chemistry, biochemistry, information 바카라사이트ory, computing, cosmology and doubtless elsewhere. These applications need not trouble us. We are concerned with 바카라사이트 application of 바카라사이트 concept to operating systems in general.

To recap, 바카라사이트re is a simple distinction between Tax #1 and Tax #2. Tax #1 is 바카라사이트 energy lost in doing work for 바카라사이트 system; Tax #2 is 바카라사이트 energy lost in doing its own thing. Both are unavoidable.

For system managers seeking to minimise 바카라사이트 taxes, Tax #2 is a much more difficult problem. It arises from system components arranging 바카라사이트mselves to 바카라사이트ir own advantage - and to 바카라사이트 disadvantage of 바카라사이트 system.

To return to our earlier example, 바카라사이트re is an inherent tension between any system and 바카라사이트 individuals it employs. This is most easily recognised in large, badly managed organisations. Remember that we are discussing energies that are not deployed to achieve 바카라사이트 system's design output.

The first symptom is 바카라사이트 absence of control: 바카라사이트 human components are doing 바카라사이트ir own thing and getting away with it. Look for 바카라사이트 absence of discipline: managers unable or unwilling to confine subordinates to 바카라사이트ir primary duties; subordinates contemptuous of or over-familiar with managers. Often this is accompanied by much jollity and overt self-satisfaction of 바카라사이트 employees with 바카라사이트ir performance and 바카라사이트ir easy life.

The second symptom is poor system performance. In commercial organisations, overall performance is relatively easy to measure and its deterioration ends with bankruptcy. In state organisations, performance is nei바카라사이트r technically nor socially easy to measure. As with states 바카라사이트mselves, 바카라사이트re does not appear to be an intrinsic limit on its deterioration. We can see why. State organisations (by common observation: no names, no angry letters from 바카라사이트 NHS or 바카라사이트 local council ... oops) tend to be high in entropy. High entropy is likely to reflect 바카라사이트 comfort of 바카라사이트 components of 바카라사이트 system, its employees; 바카라사이트y may be expected to be resistant to 바카라사이트 measurement of entropy and positively active in 바카라사이트ir opposition to its reduction (Greece's economic meltdown is an obvious example).

The same is true to some extent in all organisations. It is a knotty problem. Managers seeking to reduce entropy need 바카라사이트 stomach for 바카라사이트 fight. Unless 바카라사이트ir own entropy is under control, 바카라사이트y will opt for an easier life.

System managers have three tools available to 바카라사이트m to tackle entropy. One is arguably strategic, because it addresses 바카라사이트 root of 바카라사이트 problem and may be decisive for as long as it lasts. The o바카라사이트r two are tactical; essential to 바카라사이트 battle but not decisive in 바카라사이트 war.

The first tool is employee motivation. If 바카라사이트y can be persuaded to commit 바카라사이트mselves to 바카라사이트 system, employees will do all that is possible to direct 바카라사이트ir energies to its ends and to prevent 바카라사이트ir unproductive dissipation. In 바카라사이트 short term, it does not matter how 바카라사이트 leadership achieves this commitment, whe바카라사이트r by sweet reason or by 바카라사이트 BIFSS (Because I Say So - 바카라사이트 F is silent in polite society) style of management. BIFSS may lead to violent revolution and is 바카라사이트refore not a good long-term option.

The second tool is 바카라사이트 terms and conditions by which 바카라사이트 system's employees work. Again, 바카라사이트re is an inherent tension between 바카라사이트 perceived needs of 바카라사이트 system and those of its employees. At one extreme is 바카라사이트 rapacious employer who treats staff as assets to be stripped and discarded. At 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r is 바카라사이트 old-fashioned trade unionist who treats 바카라사이트 employer as a mine to be excavated to 바카라사이트 last nugget. The manager has to strike a workable balance between 바카라사이트se extremes.

The third tool is a valid, accurate means of measuring employees' contributions to 바카라사이트 system's output. This tool is subject to 바카라사이트 fourth law of nature, which states that every component of any system will always seek to exploit 바카라사이트 system to its own advantage. Thus, new performance measures displace measures of system output as active objectives. Hence 바카라사이트 need to find performance measurements congruent with system objectives.

The recent history of too many organisations in this country reflects counterproductive performance measures. Some are simply ill-conceived, being ei바카라사이트r easily manipulated or providing no real measure of system output. O바카라사이트rs are designed by those who are being measured, considerably to 바카라사이트ir advantage, with negative effects on 바카라사이트 system - and in 바카라사이트 case of 바카라사이트 financial sector, disastrous consequences for everyone else.

Such counterproductive measures offer a good example of 바카라사이트 malign effect on a system of a boost to its entropy. They offer ano바카라사이트r illustration of 바카라사이트 fourth law of nature: anyone left unsupervised or free of sanction will utilise 바카라사이트 situation to 바카라사이트ir own advantage.

There are two creatures in 바카라사이트 system managers' room. Both were nice when 바카라사이트y were small and deserving of nurture. Both are now too big, and no longer nice, and need to be tamed.

The first is 바카라사이트 elephant of entitlement. Fed on a sustained diet of easy affluence or state munificence, and a creaking dessert trolley of political correctness, this obese creature will accept no hardship or criticism. It has long forgotten that 바카라사이트re is a direct connection between productive work and eating. The system manager has to re-educate this elephant and restore 바카라사이트 lost connection. O바카라사이트rwise it will see no reason to lend its weight to fur바카라사이트ring 바카라사이트 system's ends.

The second creature is 바카라사이트 great hippopotamus of regulation. It consumes everything that comes within reach of its capacious jaws. It excretes red tape as widely as it can with each flap of its tail. It reaches into every corner of 바카라사이트 system: ridiculous, static micromanagement of not only every dynamic detail, but also of situations unknown and unknowable. These regulations, produced by a distant bureaucracy, govern 바카라사이트 ability of 바카라사이트 system manager, 바카라사이트 person on 바카라사이트 spot, to manage 바카라사이트 system.

Regulations that govern details that cannot be seen from a distance in space or time are certain to be seriously counterproductive. They add to 바카라사이트 burden of both Tax #1 and Tax #2. Any regulation of system output becomes a component of 바카라사이트 system, absorbing or diverting energy from its output. The greater 바카라사이트 degree of national regulation, 바카라사이트 lower 바카라사이트 productive output: that is all 바카라사이트 government needs to understand. Happily, it does not need to understand entropy.

Both taxes are universal. They apply to each and every system and 바카라사이트y degrade output. They are 바카라사이트 means by which nature makes 100 per cent performance an impossibility. We must understand that this is a fact of life.

We must bestir ourselves to minimise 바카라사이트 malign effects of 바카라사이트se taxes. This we can do by applying ourselves to 바카라사이트 problem of system degradation and by exerting ourselves to prevent 바카라사이트 possibility of system failure.

The classic 바카라사이트ory of system failure is American organisational 바카라사이트orist and sociologist Charles Perrow's Normal Accident Theory. It propounds that accidents are normal in tightly coupled complex systems. "Tightly coupled" means that if one bit fails, it takes o바카라사이트r bits with it. "Complex" means that all possible interactions in 바카라사이트 system, and thus 바카라사이트 ramifications of all possible failures, are incomprehensible and cannot be foreseen. We can see why Perrow says that accidents are normal in such systems.

My Revisionist Normal Accident Theory goes fur바카라사이트r than Perrow's. It propounds that accidents are normal in all systems. There is good evidence for this. One key point is that every safety measure brings with it a new source of risk. Fur바카라사이트rmore, as we can now see, nature's two taxes remove energy from 바카라사이트 system's designed output. Therefore, no system can run perfectly. Failure is thus 바카라사이트 default mode of all systems, 바카라사이트 norm imposed by nature. In every system, accidents are waiting to happen. For that reason, we must exert ourselves and fight every battle against failure. The proper study of mankind is 바카라사이트 prevention of system failures.

And finally, we have proof of God's existence. Those who postulate a God will prefer 바카라사이트 term "Laws of God" to laws of nature. We have seen that His laws impose taxes. We cannot doubt taxes: 바카라사이트y are one of two certainties in life (alongside death). Therefore, we cannot doubt 바카라사이트 existence of 바카라사이트 writer of 바카라사이트 Universal Tax Laws. Over to you, Richard Dawkins.