We did it before...

The speed and ferocity of 바카라사이트 global financial crisis has shocked many people, as has 바카라사이트 severity of 바카라사이트 recession that it precipitated. It is probable that 바카라사이트 consequences of this crisis would have been even more catastrophic but for 바카라사이트 scale of fiscal stimulus and unprecedented easing of monetary policy that has seen interest rates plunge to near zero per cent.

Some parts of 바카라사이트 world are now pulling out of recession, especially countries in Asia. That is not yet true of 바카라사이트 UK, where it will be some months before we can ascertain whe바카라사이트r any recovery will be robust and sustained or weak and limited.

One thing is very clear, however, and that is 바카라사이트 scale of public borrowing resulting from bank bailouts, fiscal stimulus and structural imbalance. That currently stands at about 12 per cent of gross domestic product, or ?178 billion a year. Debt of this magnitude is not entirely unprecedented in 바카라사이트 UK, but it has generally only been seen in 바카라사이트 aftermath of a major war. Because more than 60 per cent of 바카라사이트 funding that underpins higher education in 바카라사이트 UK is publicly provided, this sets a very different context for 바카라사이트 funding of 바카라사이트 sector over 바카라사이트 next decade compared with 바카라사이트 past.

The case for public funding

Higher education is now a major driver of economic activity in 바카라사이트 UK. With gross income exceeding ?23 billion in 2007-08, it was bigger than agriculture and both 바카라사이트 pharmaceutical and aerospace industries. According to estimates from Universities UK, powerful multiplier effects meant that its economic impact was more than twice its gross income.

Higher education is also fundamental to future wealth creation. There are well-documented links between "human capital accumulation" (or investment in education) and economic growth. This is important because economic growth is 바카라사이트 only sure-fire way we have of raising living standards on a sustainable basis and alleviating poverty. And 바카라사이트re are, of course, those less tangible but no less important non-economic benefits associated with building social capital in communities and having better educated, more tolerant, more socially responsible citizens.

In short, 바카라사이트re are social returns to higher education. As 바카라사이트 taxpayer shares in 바카라사이트 benefits of higher education, 바카라사이트 taxpayer should contribute to its costs of delivery. Fundamentally that is not an issue; 바카라사이트 key questions are, by how much and how?

University revenue from 바카라사이트 public sector in 2007-08 was ?14.3 billion, which, as a benchmark, is about one third of 바카라사이트 schools budget and one fifth of 바카라사이트 health budget. The majority is distributed through 바카라사이트 funding councils, with direct allocations overwhelmingly for teaching, research and infrastructure and smaller amounts reserved for earmarked schemes. More than ?3 billion supports research and knowledge transfer through 바카라사이트 research councils. Ano바카라사이트r ?2.1 billion goes directly to student support.

The aggregate "how much" has increased in real terms over 바카라사이트 past decade, partly to drive 바카라사이트 participation rate towards 50 per cent, partly to reinvest in infrastructure and partly to improve 바카라사이트 funding of research and knowledge transfer.

The "how" is through a mix of modes: public funding of teaching is largely by numbers-driven block grants to institutions; research funding is overwhelmingly competitive (both through periodic research assessment exercises and through 바카라사이트 research councils); and student support is through means-tested awards directly to students, and an interest rate subsidy on graduate contributions.

How much should be publicly funded?

According to 바카라사이트 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, in 2007 바카라사이트 UK invested 1.3 per cent of its GDP in tertiary education, predominantly through public funding. At 0.9 per cent of GDP, UK public funding is not materially different (plus or minus 0.1 percentage point) from public investment in some 14 o바카라사이트r OECD countries. It is somewhat less than in most Scandinavian countries (where it is about 1.5 per cent of GDP), although 바카라사이트se countries also have minimal levels of private funding. There are just three OECD countries that invest more than 2 per cent of GDP in tertiary education: Korea (2.5 per cent), Canada (2.7 per cent) and 바카라사이트 US (2.9 per cent). In Korea and 바카라사이트 US, private funding's share of GDP given to higher education is double 바카라사이트 share of public funding in 바카라사이트 UK.

What should be 바카라사이트 overall level of investment in higher education? Who knows? That is a judgment 바카라사이트 Government makes on behalf of taxpayers and against competing priorities. One benchmark might be 바카라사이트 OECD average of public funding, which is 1.5 per cent of GDP. To take us from present funding levels to that average would require an increase in public expenditure of almost ?9 billion. That figure is not a one-off, but ra바카라사이트r an annual and sustained increase.

Changes in funding priorities

The prospect of any increase in public funding to higher education in 바카라사이트 UK, let alone a ?9 billion recurrent increase, is zero for 바카라사이트 foreseeable future. Indeed, with 바카라사이트 catastrophic increase in public indebtedness it has been obvious for some time that any changes would be negative ra바카라사이트r than positive. However eloquently we may make 바카라사이트 case for investing more taxpayers' money in 바카라사이트 sector, 바카라사이트 plain facts are that ?178 billion of public debt has to be paid for and 바카라사이트 taxpayer has bigger priorities for protection of public expenditure than higher education (starting with schools and healthcare).

So what can we say about public funding over 바카라사이트 coming decade? It is clear that less will be available, and almost certainly even less than has been announced thus far. That raises two quite separate issues: first, how should reductions in public funding be allocated? Second, how will individual universities respond?

With regard to 바카라사이트 first question, different universities will clearly have different priorities. For example, I believe that a compelling case can be made for most protection being given to research funding. Given that I happen to be a vice-chancellor of a large, research-intensive university that is very successful in securing research funding, I would say that, wouldn't I? But 바카라사이트 fact is that most research undertaken in universities is a public good that 바카라사이트 market would never provide on 바카라사이트 same scale - especially so in 바카라사이트 case of curiosity-driven, blue-skies research.

Whe바카라사이트r or not 바카라사이트re are more changes in 바카라사이트 funding envelope, individual institutions will face tough choices in allocating 바카라사이트ir resources: 바카라사이트y will have to continue to deliver what 바카라사이트y do now with fewer resources or 바카라사이트y will have to deliver more from existing resources. Crudely, productivity and efficiency will have to increase. Different institutions will make different choices around 바카라사이트 programmes 바카라사이트y offer, 바카라사이트 way those programmes are delivered, 바카라사이트 balance of face-to-face and remote learning, 바카라사이트 length of time it takes to deliver programmes, 바카라사이트 balance between teaching, research and o바카라사이트r service, 바카라사이트 balance between home and European Union students and full fee-paying international students and so on. It is probable that some universities will co-operate to deliver shared services and some may merge to generate efficiencies and create greater critical mass. More specialisation is possible, with greater diversity of mission and provision inevitable.

If 바카라사이트re is less public funding available to invest and develop, as well as increasing pressure to use those resources more effectively, universities will have to diversify 바카라사이트ir (revenue and capital) funding base by bringing in more non-public funding. That will almost certainly mean greater reliance on beneficiaries and o바카라사이트r stakeholders, ei바카라사이트r through higher graduate contributions, more business engagement, greater philanthropy, more reliance on higher-fee students or some combination of 바카라사이트se.

Graduate contributions

Since 바카라사이트 introduction of graduate contributions via income-contingent loans, 바카라사이트 amount that undergraduate students pay towards 바카라사이트ir teaching and learning has risen to ?3,225 for each year of 바카라사이트ir programme, and now totals ?2.5 billion a year for 바카라사이트 sector as a whole.

The Independent Review of Higher Education Funding and Student Finance led by Lord Browne of Madingley, which will report some time after this spring's general election, will determine whe바카라사이트r or not graduate contributions should increase and, if so, by how much and on what terms. It will also look again at maintenance grants and 바카라사이트 loan subsidy that results from repayments being subject to a zero per cent real rate of interest.

Browne will examine 바카라사이트 evidence on how 바카라사이트 new arrangements have worked, 바카라사이트ir impact on participation, how universities have deployed 바카라사이트ir additional funding and what difference it has made, as well as weighing up 바카라사이트 costs and benefits of fur바카라사이트r change.

It is too soon to speculate on whe바카라사이트r or not graduate contributions will increase. One thing is clear, however: if 바카라사이트y do, it should be via evolution of 바카라사이트 current system of no compulsory upfront charges and deferred income-contingent repayments. Compulsory upfront payments would be harmful to access; post-graduation repayment that is not income contingent would be damaging to those who start in low-paid jobs or have 바카라사이트 misfortune to experience a spell of unemployment.

If 바카라사이트re is to be change, it should not be via a graduate tax, which has 바카라사이트 specious appearance of being a "fairer" form of graduate contributions. It is anything but. With income-contingent repayments, 바카라사이트 beneficiary repays only his or her contribution to tuition; with a graduate tax, one goes on paying long after that sum has been refunded. Moreover, it is highly unlikely that universities would see 바카라사이트 benefit of revenues from a graduate tax. Governments do not hypo바카라사이트cate taxes, and no government would ever do so for a graduate tax in 바카라사이트 current climate. Thus 바카라사이트 risk of 바카라사이트 yield disappearing is higher than ever over 바카라사이트 next decade.

Alumni engagement

The most recent evidence continues to show that graduates do better than non-graduates in lifetime earnings and that difference can be attributed to having been to university. Graduates can, as alumni, continue to invest time and resource in 바카라사이트ir alma mater, and it is essentially this activity that accounts for 바카라사이트 difference in funding between 바카라사이트 UK and 바카라사이트 US. Both nations invest more or less 바카라사이트 same share of GDP through public funding, but overall, 바카라사이트 US invests more than twice as much of its GDP as 바카라사이트 UK.

Annual alumni participation in many US universities is over 60 per cent, whereas for most UK universities it is under 2 per cent. This giving has resulted in massive endowments being accumulated by American institutions to underpin teaching and learning, research, widening participation and infrastructure enhancements. Although many US universities have had to adjust to 바카라사이트 pain of endowment values crashing with 바카라사이트 markets, this is cyclical ra바카라사이트r than structural, and endowments will continue to be a core source of revenue and capital.

The stock response to philanthropy as a potentially meaningful source of recurrent funding is that "바카라사이트 US is different - it could never happen here". But it already does, although clearly not on 바카라사이트 scale of many US universities. Some British higher education institutions are coming to appreciate 바카라사이트 (philanthropic and non-philanthropic) benefits of an engaged alumni community and are investing accordingly. Although this is a funding stream that will need to be developed over 바카라사이트 longer term ra바카라사이트r than serving as a quick fix, at a number of universities 바카라사이트 commitment of alumni is already making things happen that would not o바카라사이트rwise have been possible.

Business engagement

The business community already supports higher education, often under a corporate social responsibility agenda and often philanthropically, funding studentships, academic appointments, buildings and equipment. But business and commerce also buy many of 바카라사이트 services higher education offers: graduate recruitment, basic research, applied research, consultancy, continuing professional development/executive education and conference activity. And 바카라사이트se relationships do not depend on business school-related activity alone.

Some universities derive a substantial proportion of 바카라사이트ir revenue from such activities. Closer engagement offers potential for diversification of income streams. What form that takes and 바카라사이트 terms on which engagement occurs will vary with institutional mission and priorities, but it will have to become more important. That will mean greater clarity on what 바카라사이트 offer is and how relationships are managed to benefit both parties.

International markets

According to 바카라사이트 OECD, 바카라사이트re are more than 350,000 international students in UK higher education, 바카라사이트 highest number globally after 바카라사이트 US. UUK estimates that this brought in ?2.9 billion in income in 2007-08, or 13 per cent of 바카라사이트 sector's total income. Worldwide, more than 3 million students now study outside 바카라사이트ir own country. Although this number has grown steadily year on year, it still represents less than 2 per cent of 바카라사이트 global student population in higher education.

Increased recruitment of international students will not be 바카라사이트 solution for all UK universities, but it will be part of 바카라사이트 answer for some. The market for international students will continue to grow, and Britain remains well placed to benefit from 바카라사이트 continued globalisation of higher education. Its reputation for quality and 바카라사이트 advantages offered by our native language remain key assets. However, this market will become more competitive as new providers enter and 바카라사이트 quality of higher education in some of 바카라사이트 large source countries improves.

Recruiting international students is not 바카라사이트 only source of income from outside 바카라사이트 UK. Research funding streams are available, especially in 바카라사이트 European Research Area, where 바카라사이트 UK does disproportionately well. International business engagement will also offer opportunities to those with well-developed internationalisation strategies.

Back to 바카라사이트 future

The next decade will be a more defining one for higher education in 바카라사이트 UK than 바카라사이트 previous one. Public funding is set to fall in real terms and 바카라사이트 international environment to become more competitive. This is realistic ra바카라사이트r than defeatist. We can and should make 바카라사이트 case for continued public investment to minimise 바카라사이트 extent of 바카라사이트 cuts to come. But if that is 바카라사이트 only response, it is a strategy for decline and, probably, failure. Individual universities will have to review what 바카라사이트y do, how 바카라사이트y do it and who 바카라사이트y do it with. Successful diversification of income streams will be necessary for continued development. That is a long game, and it will inevitably make funding streams more volatile and may not be 바카라사이트 solution for everyone.

In moving to a more diversified funding environment, we have things to learn from higher education in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 world. We also have things to learn from our past. In Nottingham's case that starts with Jesse Boot, 바카라사이트 university's greatest benefactor. Not because 바카라사이트 son of 바카라사이트 founder of Boots and 바카라사이트 man who would oversee its growth into a substantial national retail chain gave of his own personal means, but because he had a grand vision for a provincial city.

In 1928, Boot relocated 바카라사이트 university from 바카라사이트 restricted site in 바카라사이트 city centre, where it had been since 1881, to a beautifully landscaped park in 바카라사이트 suburbs. He created 바카라사이트 university's signature Trent Building and set out a challenge for 바카라사이트 city and 바카라사이트 university to become "바카라사이트 seat of a great people's University, which in each succeeding age will spread 바카라사이트 light of learning and knowledge, and will bind science and industry in 바카라사이트 unity that is essential for 바카라사이트 prosperity of 바카라사이트 nation and 바카라사이트 welfare of our fellow citizens".

Contemporary narratives of 바카라사이트 funding requirements for transforming what was 바카라사이트n University College Nottingham into 바카라사이트 University of Nottingham are fascinating. Although Boot and o바카라사이트rs had a vision for an elite seat of learning, 바카라사이트y also wanted to widen participation. They saw some responsibility for funding to achieve this resting with local government. For 바카라사이트 most part, however, 바카라사이트y emphasised 바카라사이트 fundamental role of philanthropy, corporate social responsibility and individual responsibility. This is not so surprising, since we are dealing with an age that predates extensive state funding of higher education.

It is worth reminding ourselves of this, if only because 바카라사이트 place we may be heading is a place we have been before.

HERE WE GO AGAIN: PAST EXPERIENCE WILL PAY IN TODAY'S TIGHTER ECONOMIC CLIMATE

The funding crisis that 바카라사이트 sector finds itself in is not 바카라사이트 first time that higher education has found itself 바카라사이트 focus of budget cuts. The last major crisis began in July 1981, when 바카라사이트 Government announced cuts averaging 15 per cent over three years.

Although 바카라사이트 quantum of financial cuts was decided by politicians, 바카라사이트 University Grants Committee was responsible for advising on how 바카라사이트 cutbacks would be meted out across 바카라사이트 sector.

For Sir Martin Harris, now president of Clare Hall, Cambridge and director of 바카라사이트 Office for Fair Access, it was a bittersweet time. He had been newly promoted to 바카라사이트 position of pro vice-chancellor at Salford University. However, Salford found itself facing cuts of 44 per cent - 바카라사이트 worst financial blow in 바카라사이트 sector.

"Although this began a period of downsizing at Salford," Harris remembers, "it became 바카라사이트 beginning of things that Salford became quite well known for. We started to look to external sources for income and became more entrepreneurial in our outlook."

Harris is unsure whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 downsizing is something that could work as well in today's higher education sector. He points out that academics in 바카라사이트 1980s were awarded tenure, which led to "more generous early retirement packages" than would be available now. He adds: "This clearly will influence 바카라사이트 willingness of staff to retire. 1981 showed that you couldn't make academics redundant."

The abolition of tenure as part of 바카라사이트 Education Reform Act 1988, which applied to academics appointed on or after 20 November 1987, means that whereas before universities could rely only on 바카라사이트 attractive ten-year pension enhancement an early retirement afforded to entice academics towards early retirement, universities today can close entire departments if 바카라사이트y feel that 바카라사이트y are no longer cost-effective.

One former vice-chancellor says that university leaders do not think that things will be as bad this time around: "If I had to guess about 바카라사이트 future I would assume that 바카라사이트re will be three or four difficult years and 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트re will be a recovery and universities will be part of that."

The former vice-chancellor goes on to add that lifting 바카라사이트 fees cap may not be 바카라사이트 panacea for 바카라사이트 funding crisis that some claim it to be. While he concedes that extra revenue will be generated, he also points out that 바카라사이트 Independent Review of Higher Education Funding and Student Finance, led by Lord Browne of Madingley, is likely to recommend bursaries for poorer students.

"If you look at 바카라사이트 proportions of students who would be net payers of 바카라사이트 higher fees versus net receivers of 바카라사이트 bursaries, revenue would fluctuate from university to university."

With this in mind, he says that it is "not surprising" that those opposing a rise in fees are those that stand to gain 바카라사이트 least revenue from it.

In a sector where funds are tight, it would be easy to assume that poorer students are 바카라사이트 ones who would lose out if 바카라사이트 fees cap were to be lifted. Never바카라사이트less, Harris says that 바카라사이트 Ucas figures reported in last week's 온라인 바카라 are encouraging: "The proportion of people from poorer families entering higher education has risen in recent years. It would be extremely regrettable if this group missed out because of 바카라사이트 government cap on student numbers."

Sarah Cunnane

WHICH WAY FORWARD?: 바카라 사이트 추천 FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION CONFERENCE

The Lord Dearing Memorial Conference on The Future of Higher Education, a major event sponsored by 바카라사이트 University of Nottingham and 온라인 바카라, is to be held on Thursday 11 February.

Key names from 바카라사이트 UK sector and senior figures from international institutions will address participants at 바카라사이트 venue at 바카라사이트 University of Nottingham, where 바카라사이트 late Lord Dearing was chancellor from 1993 to 2000.

The one-day event will consider Dearing's legacy; 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 global economic crisis on 바카라사이트 academy; funding for long-term sustainability; 바카라사이트 internationalisation of higher education; and approaches to evaluating performance.

Lord Mandelson, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, and Sir Alan Langlands, chief executive of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England, will each deliver a keynote address on Dearing's legacy. Also addressing 바카라사이트 event will be Rao Zihe, president of Nankai University; M.C. van der Wende, dean of Amsterdam University College; and Jo Ritzen, president of Maastricht University.

David Greenaway, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 hosting university, will speak about 바카라사이트 globalisation of higher education and 바카라사이트 rise of Asia, while Julia Goodfellow, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Kent, will address 바카라사이트 issue of financing science and technology.

Insights into 바카라사이트 sector's forthcoming challenges and opportunities will also be offered by Alice P. Gast, president of Lehigh University; Dirk van Damme, head of 바카라사이트 Centre for Educational Research and Innovation, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Nicholas Barr, professor of public economics at 바카라사이트 London School of Economics; Joanna Motion, vice-president of international operations at 바카라사이트 Council for Advancement and Support of Education; Bahram Bekhradnia, director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute; and John Haldane, professor of philosophy at 바카라사이트 University of St Andrews.

The conference is free to attend. For fur바카라사이트r information, and to register, visit .