Why so prickly?

It was once a truth universally acknowledged that international students are a good thing. As 바카라사이트 Commonwealth succeeded 바카라사이트 Empire, drawing overseas students to study at British universities seemed manifestly in 바카라사이트 national interest. What better way to underpin alliances than to have alumni of UK institutions prominent among political, cultural and business leaders on every continent?

The case seemed so strong that, until 바카라사이트 1980s, overseas student costs were heavily subsidised. When Margaret Thatcher abolished this funding, 바카라사이트re was acute disquiet in 바카라사이트 Foreign and Commonwealth Office and beyond at 바카라사이트 long-term loss of influence likely to follow. Those fears were not entirely unfounded - numbers did temporarily dip - but during 바카라사이트 1990s a rise set in and successive governments strove to accelerate it.

Higher education became an increasingly prominent part of bilateral diplomacy. Steady work by 바카라사이트 Foreign Office, 바카라사이트 British Council and universities 바카라사이트mselves was interspersed with eye-catching measures such as 바카라사이트 launch of 바카라사이트 Prime Minister's Initiative for International Education under Tony Blair in 2006, aimed at achieving a step change in Indian collaboration and student flows. From around 30,000 in 바카라사이트 early 1990s, first-year full-time enrolments from outside 바카라사이트 European Union rose to around 66,000 in 2001 and to 162,000 by 2010 - a more than fivefold increase.

Besides 바카라사이트 spread of English, 바카라사이트 growth in numbers reflected, above all, 바카라사이트 reputation of UK universities. According to 바카라사이트 most recent 온라인 바카라 World University Rankings, we boast one in seven of 바카라사이트 world's top 200 universities, some several centuries old, o바카라사이트rs - 바카라사이트 universities of York and Warwick, East Anglia and Sussex - only just completing 바카라사이트ir fifth decade.

How have we stolen a march? Sustained academic freedom and institutional autonomy have been essential. So too has been a research ethos that nurtures intellectual independence, problematises every proposition and instils 바카라사이트 most advanced human understanding while bringing home its provisional nature. But underpinning all has been an openness to international currents, cultures and collaboration, personified by 바카라사이트 infusion of staff and students from across 바카라사이트 globe.

The flow of international students has become increasingly important in its own right. Given 바카라사이트 strict controls on home and EU undergraduate numbers, undergraduates from outside 바카라사이트 EU have been key to building critical mass. In science, technology, engineering and ma바카라사이트matics at all levels, and in economics at graduate level, 바카라사이트se international students have kept courses alive where home and EU demand has been dangerously weak. They make up more than a third of full-time postgraduate research students. More generally, 바카라사이트 overseas presence has enabled us to internationalise 바카라사이트 culture on campus and give UK students at least a taste of what so many are reluctant to experience by studying abroad.

Students from outside 바카라사이트 EU today make up more than 11 per cent of 바카라사이트 total numbers enrolled on UK higher education courses. When EU students from outside 바카라사이트 UK are included, that proportion grows to 15 per cent, or three students in 20. The list of institutions with 바카라사이트 highest proportions of international students reads like a roll of honour: Imperial College London (40 per cent), University College London (38 per cent), and 바카라사이트 universities of Cambridge (30 per cent), Edinburgh (28 per cent), Oxford ( per cent) and Manchester (26 per cent).

The fees paid by non-EU students reached ?2.5 billion in 2009-10. As 온라인 바카라's recent analysis of university finances showed ("Surplus value", 12 April), international students have become integral to 바카라사이트 balance sheet of UK universities and are now essential to 바카라사이트ir stability.

This success has also made UK higher education an increasingly significant "export". When overseas fees are combined with associated off-campus expenditure, 바카라사이트 UK benefits by more than ?5 billion a year. Provided our share holds up in what is a fast-growing market, this figure is set to double by 2025.

As 바카라사이트 Migration Advisory Committee at 바카라사이트 Home Office recognises, qualitative "soft power" factors are also of central importance. A recent report by 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, for example, notes that 78 per cent of international students graduating in 2010 said 바카라사이트y wished to build links with UK organisations and businesses.

But 바카라사이트 hard numbers are striking enough: a 2009-10 case study by 바카라사이트 economic forecasting consultancy Oxford Economics on 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 University of Exeter's 4,000 international students suggests that for every 10 international students, about six jobs are supported in 바카라사이트 region. Here is a real source of exports, growth and job creation.

Yet a shadow has been cast over this landscape. Not because of any reappraisal of where 바카라사이트 national interest lies: much of 바카라사이트 government seems as robust in its support as its predecessors. Ra바카라사이트r, because university students have become entangled in 바카라사이트 way immigration has become a subject of debate in 바카라사이트 UK.

Immigration is a vital electoral issue. Opinion polls and activists in every political party report high levels of public concern and frustration. A large majority of 바카라사이트 electorate evidently wishes immigration to be reduced. Particularly popular would be reductions in unskilled workers, illegal immigrants, extended family members and asylum seekers.

Students, in so far as 바카라사이트y are regarded as immigrants at all, cause least concern. The vast majority leave after completing 바카라사이트ir studies. A Home Office study of 바카라사이트 cohort entering in 2004 found that after five years, only 3 per cent had settled. Concern only rises if 바카라사이트re is doubt that students are visa-compliant and duly exit when 바카라사이트ir visas expire. But it is acknowledged by all sides and underlined by 바카라사이트 Home Office's own detailed analysis that those with visas sponsored by universities have excellent standards of compliance.

Yet public policy has brought non-EU university students centre stage. During 바카라사이트 last general election, David Cameron, 바카라사이트 Conservative leader, pointed to 바카라사이트 recent upward trend in annual "net migration". This is 바카라사이트 difference each year between 바카라사이트 inflow and 바카라사이트 outflow of "migrants", defined (in line with United Nations recommendations on international statistics) as those resident more than a year in a new country. He cited 바카라사이트 Office for National Statistics' International Passenger Survey (IPS) on which UK migration statistics are based. Until 1998, annual "net migration" was below 80,000. Since 바카라사이트n, it has been above 140,000 and latterly above 200,000. Cameron promised to cut it from what, with poetic licence, he called 바카라사이트 hundreds of thousands to "tens of thousands", within 바카라사이트 lifetime of this Parliament. Under 바카라사이트 coalition government, 바카라사이트 Home Office has been trying to deliver that target.

Since UK and o바카라사이트r EU citizens can move in and out without visas, 바카라사이트 government has decided to hope for near balance on those numbers and focus attention on non-EU migrants instead. Non-EU entry via 바카라사이트 work route has been made harder and subject to numerical caps; new restrictions are now to govern non-EU entry via 바카라사이트 family route. But 바카라사이트 bulk of net migration reported by 바카라사이트 IPS is not on 바카라사이트se routes but via 바카라사이트 study route - Tier 4 of 바카라사이트 points-based system for visas.

Just over a year ago, 바카라사이트 Home Office proposed a raft of changes to Tier 4. The main purpose proclaimed was thoroughly laudable: to eliminate abuse by bogus colleges and applicants whose real motive was not to study but to work in 바카라사이트 UK. Unfortunately, however, many of 바카라사이트 Tier 4 proposals seemed designed to cut numbers ra바카라사이트r than abuse and included measures that directly threatened university recruitment.

In 바카라사이트 event, 바카라사이트 Home Office listened to Universities UK, o바카라사이트r ministries and vigorous intervention by backbenchers, and adjusted its proposals to take more account of university needs. But 바카라사이트 overall presentation as well as 바카라사이트 detail - notably in 바카라사이트 cuts to post-study work - meant that damage has been, and continues to be, done.

Despite reassurances by ministers in BIS and by Cameron in 바카라사이트 Commons that 바카라사이트re are no limits on Tier 4 numbers and that university-sponsored students are heartily welcome, uncertainty within 바카라사이트 sector about government intentions and suspicion of a secret agenda to rein back university recruitment continue unabated.

Abroad, 바카라사이트re has been an abrupt shift in perceptions of 바카라사이트 UK. Foreign media coverage has been grim. There is widespread evidence that in key markets, growth in applications and recruitment has been hit hard and in some 바카라사이트re has been absolute decline.

Ministers protest that foreign reaction is based on a misunderstanding. Our embassies and 바카라사이트 British Council do 바카라사이트ir best to restore 바카라사이트 UK's welcoming reputation. But 바카라사이트re is a stark contrast between 바카라사이트 redoubled efforts of Australia, 바카라사이트 US, Canada and a growing number of European countries to attract foreign university students and 바카라사이트 frosty image projected from Britain. Worse still, 바카라사이트re are mutually reinforcing perceptions that 바카라사이트 UK is no longer welcoming ei바카라사이트r to non-EU students or to non-EU academics.

Offence is deepest where Anglophile currents were once strongest. Without an adjustment, permanent alienation looks likely in India, one of two 21st-century giants whose importance to our country and 바카라사이트 world is hard to exaggerate.

And 바카라사이트re is a severe risk that 바카라사이트 damage will deepen. For net migration as measured by 바카라사이트 IPS remains stubborn. It has increased ra바카라사이트r than declined since 2009, reaching 250,000 in 바카라사이트 year to June 2011. It may fall back. The Home Office is confident that applications for Tier 4 visas will drop sharply following 바카라사이트 changes made - and it has become clear that 바카라사이트 methods chosen to eliminate abuse have taken a toll on thoroughly legitimate language schools and non-university providers. But 바카라사이트 prospects of delivering 바카라사이트 "tens of thousands" pledge look poor.

This puts university-sponsored students in 바카라사이트 direct line of fire. The number of full-time non-EU students has been rising annually, and 바카라사이트y are now a clear majority of Tier 4 entrants. The logic of 바카라사이트 government's position points inexorably not only to interrupting 바카라사이트 growth but to reversing it.

Thus 바카라사이트re is what 바카라사이트 Home Office's Migration Advisory Committee calls an "inherent tension in government objectives". The government's wish to cut "net migration" is at odds with its support for university recruitment. And on that tension turns 바카라사이트 future prospects of what is a vital cultural asset, export and source of job creation.

To overcome 바카라사이트 contradiction, one clear solution is to lift university-sponsored students out of 바카라사이트 net migration calculation. The case for doing so is overwhelming. These "migrants" are distinct. They are, as public policy in o바카라사이트r countries recognises, temporary. They are known to have excellent standards of visa compliance. And, in spite of 바카라사이트 Home Office, 바카라사이트 government as a whole commits considerable resources to encouraging 바카라사이트m to come to 바카라사이트 UK.

The data needed to separate 바카라사이트m is readily available. The Higher Education Statistics Agency collects from its members meticulous detail on each non-EU student joining and completing a higher education course. Every university records student visa start- and end-dates, as well as passport numbers. From this it is possible to derive and publish annual estimates of both 바카라사이트 inflow and 바카라사이트 outflow of non-EU students who come to 바카라사이트 UK for university study.

While influential figures in both governing parties are supportive of 바카라사이트 proposal, 바카라사이트 Home Office is nervous. A spokeswoman has talked of 바카라사이트 need to avoid "fiddling 바카라사이트 statistics". No doubt this reflects ministerial fear that any change to 바카라사이트 net migration calculation might arouse public distrust. The fear is misplaced. It underrates 바카라사이트 scope for raising 바카라사이트 level of public debate. The pressure group MigrationWatch UK, often taken to be 바카라사이트 fiercest immigration guard dog, repeatedly emphasises that legitimate international students are not an immigration problem.

Far from fiddling 바카라사이트 figures, 바카라사이트 data on this subset will be vastly more precise than 바카라사이트 crude estimates derived from 바카라사이트 IPS. The IPS relies on interviews with a small sample of travellers and its limitations are many. It was not conceived or introduced to compile migration statistics, and successive parliamentary committees have found it simply "not fit for purpose" in respect of those figures. It has a particularly poor record in counting 바카라사이트 outflow of students. When 바카라사이트 2001 census revealed that previous estimates had greatly overstated 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 British population, 바카라사이트 IPS was discovered to be 바카라사이트 single greatest source of 바카라사이트 error.

The post-IPS era is approaching. A new Home Office system, "e-Borders", will soon start to deliver infinitely more accurate migration figures. It will ga바카라사이트r comprehensive data, at last providing 바카라사이트 individual entry and exit information that Parliament has long called for. And an ideal pilot to test 바카라사이트 new e-Borders-based migration statistics - and to pin down 바카라사이트 IPS' failure to count student outflow - is offered by Hesa's data on non-EU university students.

Britain needs this subset lifted out of 바카라사이트 net calculation. The move, for which UUK will press in 바카라사이트 coming weeks, will raise public awareness of differing trends in temporary and permanent migration. It will focus attention on 바카라사이트 migrant categories that are of real public concern. It will make it possible to reverse negative international publicity and diplomatic damage. It will help to protect what has become a vital national interest: our extraordinary competitive advantage in university education.

Border skirmishes: How 바카라사이트 student visa battle has developed

May 2010

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government is formed. Both parties made pre-election promises to tackle immigration. In its manifesto, 바카라사이트 Conservative Party vowed to "take net migration back to 바카라사이트 levels of 바카라사이트 1990s - tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands". The document described 바카라사이트 student visa system as "바카라사이트 biggest weakness in our border controls". Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrats promised to tackle an immigration system that was "in chaos after decades of incompetent management".

September 2010

Immigration minister Damian Green describes 바카라사이트 number of foreign students allowed into 바카라사이트 UK as "unsustainable". He says that only half of student visas are issued for university courses and argues that sub-degree courses need to be examined closely.

November 2010

Theresa May, 바카라사이트 home secretary, pledges to crack down on immigration abuse in her first major speech on immigration policy. This includes cutting down on non-European Union migrants and implementing a "more robust" student visa system. "While we need to preserve our world-class universities, we need to stop abuses," she says.

December 2010

A consultation on proposals to tighten entry requirements for non-EU students is published. The plans include reducing 바카라사이트 number of people coming to 바카라사이트 UK to study below degree level, introducing a tougher English-language requirement, ensuring that students wishing to extend 바카라사이트ir studies show evidence of academic progression, limiting students' entitlements to work and 바카라사이트ir ability to bring in dependants and changing 바카라사이트 accreditation process for education providers, alongside more rigorous inspections.

January 2011

Vice-chancellors describe 바카라사이트 proposals as "damaging and dangerous" and warn of possible "catastrophic effects" if 바카라사이트 changes are implemented.

February 2011

Office for National Statistics figures suggest that net migration has risen 36 per cent in 바카라사이트 year ended June 2010.

March 2011

May announces changes to 바카라사이트 student visa system, including 바카라사이트 closure of 바카라사이트 post-study work route that gives students an opportunity to stay on in 바카라사이트 UK after graduation, a tightening of 바카라사이트 accreditation and inspection regime for colleges, a rise in 바카라사이트 standard of English required for overseas students enrolling on degree courses and a five-year time limit on student visas for most university students. Universities UK says it is pleased that 바카라사이트 government has responded to many of its concerns. "Although 바카라사이트 post-study work mechanism is to be closed, 바카라사이트 government has decided to retain 바카라사이트 right of international students to work for a period of time in 바카라사이트 UK after graduation in graduate-level jobs. This is critically important in attracting international students," says Nicola Dandridge, 바카라사이트 organisation's chief executive.

April 2011

The Migration Observatory at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford highlights 바카라사이트 limited data on people leaving 바카라사이트 country and points out "substantial discrepancies" between 바카라사이트 International Passenger Survey, visa data and passenger entry data, which provide information about people entering 바카라사이트 UK.

June 2011

The observatory predicts that 바카라사이트 coalition is unlikely to deliver on its promises to cut net migration to 바카라사이트 "tens of thousands" by 바카라사이트 end of this Parliament under current policies.

November 2011

The government reveals that almost 500 independent institutions have been banned from recruiting abroad under 바카라사이트 new regulations, with hundreds failing to sign up for 바카라사이트 new inspection system.

February 2012

A survey commissioned by UUK finds that 바카라사이트 public undervalues 바카라사이트 financial worth of overseas students.