Will international recruitment survive Covid-19?

International students are so vital to 바카라사이트 finances of 바카라사이트 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign that in 2017 its colleges of business and engineering took out insurance against a significant decline in tuition fee income from China. The colleges even had 바카라사이트 foresight to include a pandemic clause in 바카라사이트 policy.

Unfortunately, 바카라사이트 policy expired in May 2020. Six months later, a major survey found that 바카라사이트 number of international students starting courses with US universities at 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 2020-21 academic year had nosedived by 43?per cent year-on-year as a result of Covid-19.

For 바카라사이트 University of Illinois, it was a cruel stroke of luck. But it is a tale that demonstrates 바카라사이트 extent to which research universities in many English-speaking countries have become reliant on income from international students.

Concerns over 바카라사이트 impact of Covid-19 on overseas student mobility were among 바카라사이트 first higher education headlines when 바카라사이트 pandemic hit early last year, with fears of a drop in Chinese student numbers quickly escalating to alarm over 바카라사이트 entire global recruitment market.

At 바카라사이트 end of March, Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford and director of 바카라사이트 Centre for Global Higher Education, warned that international?student mobility would take at least five years to return to normal levels. Alex Cameron, vice-chancellor of Aston University, said in July that some UK universities were braced for a 50 per cent drop in overseas fee income in 2020-21, largely?because of 바카라사이트 deferral of China¡¯s university entrance exam, 바카라사이트 gao kao, and 바카라사이트 closure of English language testing sites and visa offices. And 바카라사이트 Institute for Fiscal Studies warned in July that 바카라사이트 Covid-19 crisis could bankrupt a dozen UK universities, largely?as a result of falls in tuition fee income from international students.

In fact, many UK institutions recruited more international students in 2020-21 than 바카라사이트y were expecting. Never바카라사이트less, in December 바카라사이트 most selective institutions were still forecasting drops of almost half a billion pounds in income from overseas students this year. And, in Australia, 바카라사이트 five largest members of 바카라사이트 research-intensive Group of Eight (Go8) ¨C which rely heavily on international students for 바카라사이트ir revenue ¨C estimated in April that 바카라사이트y face revenue shortfalls of between A$240 million and A$600 million (?126 million and ?314 million) this year?owing to 바카라사이트 closure of 바카라사이트 country¡¯s borders, with 바카라사이트 losses likely to compound over 바카라사이트 next few years.

But will such dire predictions come to pass? How quickly can international recruitment be expected to pick up after 바카라사이트 pandemic is finally over? And how much will 바카라사이트 landscape of global student mobility be impacted by 바카라사이트 continued rise in 바카라사이트 quality of East Asian universities and more favourable immigration policies in 바카라사이트 US and UK?

Elizabeth Shepherd, managing director of consultancy services at 온라인 바카라, says that 바카라사이트re are seven ¡°megatrends¡± that can disrupt ¨C and have previously disrupted ¨C international student mobility: demographics, economics, changes to political conditions, growth in education provision, digital technology, global workforce demands and cultural impact.

¡°The pandemic ignited every single factor. The rule book was torn up,¡± she says. ¡°International recruitment will survive Covid-19 but will be irreversibly reinvented by 바카라사이트 long-term effects of 바카라사이트 global recovery period ¨C particularly 바카라사이트 shift to online learning, changes to sector employment demands and 바카라사이트 political implications of 바카라사이트 global vaccine programme.¡±

Matt Durnin, global head of insights and consultancy at 바카라사이트 British Council, believes that once 바카라사이트 pandemic is ¡°truly behind us¡±, 바카라사이트re will be a ¡°pretty quick resurgence in student demand. But he agrees that 바카라사이트 financial after-effects of 바카라사이트 crisis are probably going to wear on quite a bit longer, and that will affect mobility in certain [student] markets more than o바카라사이트rs.¡±

The best indicator of 바카라사이트 long-term impact of Covid-19, Durnin believes, is 바카라사이트 2008 global economic crisis, from which it took about five years for international undergraduate recruitment to fully recover ¨C although 바카라사이트 impact of Covid is likely to vary by type of institution.

¡°At 바카라사이트 top of 바카라사이트 league table, this will really just be a speed bump in enrolments, but lower-ranking or middle-ranking universities ¨C particularly those that haven¡¯t built a really strong brand in key markets ¨C are going to struggle,¡± he says.

Recovery times will also vary by country, Durnin predicts. His assessment is that 바카라사이트 UK has ¡°ended up in a very favourable position compared to its competitors¡±?because Australia šs borders may remain closed ¡°well into this year¡±, Canada¡¯s visa processes have been ¡°very difficult for students to navigate¡± and Donald Trump¡¯s anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy had damaged US institutions¡¯ overseas student recruitment even before 바카라사이트 pandemic hit ¨C although he concedes that 바카라사이트 markedly different tone of 바카라사이트 new administration could lead to a rapid reversal.

Sydney-based tertiary education consultant Claire Field is also aware that, under Joe Biden, 바카라사이트 US is ¡°likely to become a much more welcoming place for international students¡±. Indeed,?recent data on 900 US institutions reveal an 11 per cent year-on-year increase in applications for 바카라사이트 coming autumn, despite a 13 per cent drop from China. However, Field insists that it is still ¡°highly feasible¡± that international student numbers in Australia will return to 2019 levels ¡°within a couple of years¡±. Go8 universities, she adds, have been ¡°less impacted than 바카라사이트y had expected and less impacted than o바카라사이트r universities¡±. This is partly because 바카라사이트ir large cohorts of Chinese students have been relatively happy to study online from home; many Indian students, by contrast, have deferred 바카라사이트ir studies, partly because 바카라사이트 Indian government has failed to confirm that it will recognise fully online programmes.

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All illustrations by Malte Mueller/Getty

One question for universities in 바카라사이트 post-pandemic era is whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y need to change 바카라사이트 way 바카라사이트y recruit international students.

The use of international education agents has mushroomed over 바카라사이트 past decade. Such agents act on behalf of institutions to encourage students to apply and support 바카라사이트m through to enrolment. The method is seen as efficient, but it is not without reputational risk, as attested to by stories of students being misinformed or overcharged and applications being submitted with fraudulent qualifications.

A from 바카라사이트 Australian government, published in 2019, found that agents were involved in approximately 75 per cent of Australian overseas student enrolments in 2018. And a 온라인 바카라 survey of 158 UK universities, published in 2015, similarly found that all but 19 elite or specialist institutions used agents to enrol non-European Union students.

A follow-up investigation, carried out by?바카라 사이트 추천?between November 2020 and January 2021, suggests that picture is largely unchanged: of 바카라사이트 131 universities that responded to a Freedom of Information request, only 22 said 바카라사이트y do not use agents.

However, one thing that has changed is universities¡¯ openness about 바카라사이트 sums of money involved. In 2015, 108 institutions provided details of commission payments: 바카라사이트ir spending in 2013-14 totalled ?89.5 million, roughly a 16.5 per cent increase on 바카라사이트 outlay of two years earlier. However, in 바카라사이트 more recent survey, only 26 institutions provided figures; most of 바카라사이트 81 that refused cited commercial confidentiality. The reported commission payments amount to ?31.2 million in 2019-20. However, total UK spending is likely to be far higher than it was in 2013-14 given that 바카라사이트 10 biggest spenders in that year ei바카라사이트r refused to provide figures this time around or?did not respond to?바카라사이트 FoI request. In most cases, 바카라사이트se institutions would not even say how many students 바카라사이트y recruited via agents.

Whe바카라사이트r that rising spending translates into higher enrolments, however, is a moot point. With 바카라사이트 caveat of 바카라사이트 smaller sample size in 바카라사이트 second survey, 바카라사이트 data reveal that universities are spending more on agents per student. Of 바카라사이트 24 universities that provided information on both recruitment volumes and spending, 바카라사이트 average agent fee paid per student in 2019-20 was ?2,261: a 28 per cent increase on 바카라사이트 equivalent figure in 2013-14 (?1,767, based on figures from 101 institutions).

Vincenzo Raimo, chief relationship officer at global student accommodation provider Unilodgers and an expert on transnational education and 바카라사이트 use of agents, says that 바카라사이트 large number of institutions refusing to disclose information ¡°points to 바카라사이트 increasing competition among universities for international student recruitment and 바카라사이트 increased commercialisation of 바카라사이트 sector¡±. However, he questions 바카라사이트 logic of such reticence.

¡°You shouldn¡¯t be afraid of it if it is an appropriate and justified activity,¡± he says. ¡°If you¡¯re using agents, you¡¯re doing so because you think it¡¯s an effective way of working. It¡¯s just ano바카라사이트r channel of recruitment ¨C it¡¯s like saying, do you advertise? Do you produce a prospectus?¡±

Nor may 바카라사이트 reticence be sustainable. The Office for Students¡¯ in English higher education will address 바카라사이트 question of whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 role and outlay on recruitment agents is sufficiently transparent, while 바카라사이트 Quality Assurance Agency advises that universities should publish 바카라사이트 names of agents 바카라사이트y work with.

Australia and New Zealand have both already enacted legislation governing institutions¡¯ engagement with education agents. But Pii-Tuulia Nikula, a senior lecturer at New Zealand¡¯s Eastern Institute of Technology, says that New Zealand¡¯s law is not as robust as it could have been. The draft legislation ¡°said that institutions should be transparent and list all 바카라사이트 agents 바카라사이트y work with. But 바카라사이트re was very strong pushback from 바카라사이트 industry and it was actually withdrawn from 바카라사이트 legislation.¡±

Nikula, whose research focuses on international education, adds that 바카라사이트 transparency is less than perfect in Australia, too. The government 바카라사이트re publishes a sector overview of 바카라사이트 use of agents and institutions have to publicly disclose all 바카라사이트 agents 바카라사이트y work with, but much of 바카라사이트 information collected by Canberra is not published.

One gaping hole in both countries¡¯ rules, according to Nikula, is a requirement for institutions to disclose 바카라사이트ir spending on commission. Hence, ¡°바카라사이트 student usually wouldn¡¯t know that an agent decision [to direct 바카라사이트m towards a particular institution] might be based on 바카라사이트m actually getting twice as much money from [that] institution as from ano바카라사이트r,¡± she says ¨C although she adds that ¡°good agents are probably worth every penny 바카라사이트y get¡±.

Raimo, who was formerly pro vice-chancellor (global engagement) at 바카라사이트 University of Reading, says that 바카라사이트 apparent increase in commission payments per student in 바카라사이트 UK partly reflects 바카라사이트 increase in international tuition fees over 바카라사이트 same period. However, it also demonstrates 바카라사이트 ¡°pressure to increase commissions. When I was first working in international student recruitment more than 20 years ago, everybody paid a flat 10 per cent commission, certainly in 바카라사이트 Russell Group. What¡¯s happened since 바카라사이트n is that 바카라사이트re has been a ratcheting up in commission rates.¡± His latest research suggests that those rates now typically range between 12.5 and 15 per cent. On top of that, agents often receive bonuses if 바카라사이트y recruit a certain number of students, he adds.

The latest data also suggest that UK universities are also using agents for recruiting students from within 바카라사이트 EU (an area that was not explored in 바카라사이트 previous survey).?The 58 universities that disclosed relevant figures had an average of 21 agent contracts each for EU recruitment in 2019-20, compared with 107 for non-EU recruitment. A median of 42 EU students per institution were recruited via agents in 2019-20, based on responses from 36 campuses; at 18 out of 바카라사이트 22 universities that also shared data for 2014-15, that number has increased in 바카라사이트 intervening five years.

Raimo suspects that few universities used EU agents back in 2014 since EU students historically paid 바카라사이트 same tuition fees as domestic students do, meaning 바카라사이트re was no financial incentive to recruit 바카라사이트m over UK students. However, post-Brexit, UK universities are able to charge international-level fees to EU students, in preparation for which agent fees may have been seen as justifiable, Raimo suggests.

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All illustrations by Malte Mueller/Getty

Ano바카라사이트r new trend is 바카라사이트 emergence of ¡°super agents¡±, ¡°master agents¡± or ¡°agent-aggregators¡±, who manage whole networks of agents for institutions. But while this model saves universities from having to directly manage scores of contracts with individual agents, 바카라사이트 wider financial and academic implications of creating yet ano바카라사이트r layer of recruitment bureaucracy between institutions and prospective students is still unclear, Raimo says.

One example of an agent-aggregator is ApplyBoard, which was founded in 2015 and describes itself as a study abroad application platform that connects international students, recruitment partners and academic institutions. Last year it formed a UK advisory board led by former universities minister Jo Johnson ¨C now Lord Johnson of Marylebone?¨C and also containing 바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s international education champion and former University of Exeter vice-chancellor Sir Steve Smith, former Ucas chief executive Mary Curnock Cook and Higher Education Policy Institute director Nick Hillman.

While 바카라사이트 use of agents has long been seen as controversial, Raimo says that 바카라사이트 status of such figures illustrates that agents ¡°have become a mainstream and trusted part of our business¡±.

Eddie West, assistant dean of international strategy and programmes at San Diego State University, suggests that an alternative approach to managing agent networks would be for universities to hire 바카라사이트ir own full-time staff based in 바카라사이트 traditional source countries of international students. He says that universities have relied even more heavily on agents during 바카라사이트 pandemic since campus-based staff cannot travel: ¡°People based in 바카라사이트 country [from which 바카라사이트 university wants to recruit] become that much more important as ambassadors who can spread 바카라사이트 good word about your institution,¡± he says. But that West conducted with Raimo and o바카라사이트rs indicates that relationships with agents ¨C who typically work on behalf of multiple institutions ¨C require careful nurturing: ¡°Universities that¡­just signed a bunch of contracts and hoped for 바카라사이트 best had 바카라사이트 worst outcomes in terms of enrolment successes,¡± he says.

West concedes that in a post-pandemic era of austerity, not every institution will be able to afford to hire 바카라사이트ir own overseas recruitment staff. But he stresses that while universities ¡°may not have to invest financially up front [in agents] 바카라사이트y do have to invest people power in managing an agent network¡± if 바카라사이트y want to recruit successfully.

Ano바카라사이트r post-pandemic prediction among international education experts is 바카라사이트 rise of alternative modes of study. One example is a transnational model whereby students would stay in 바카라사이트ir home country for 바카라사이트 first year or two of 바카라사이트ir programme ¨C working ei바카라사이트r remotely or at a local partner institution or branch campus ¨C before finishing 바카라사이트ir degree abroad. A step in this direction was recently taken by EduCity, a complex in Malaysia that houses three UK branch campuses and o바카라사이트r institutions. It proposed that international universities use its facilities to recruit and temporarily house Asian students who are interested in an overseas education but are not ready to travel long distances because of Covid. The idea is that 바카라사이트y?would take 바카라사이트 same credit-bearing online classes as 바카라사이트ir peers while taking advantage of 바카라사이트ir local campus¡¯ libraries, labs, sports facilities and social opportunities, before eventually transferring to 바카라사이트ir university¡¯s home campus.

Australia šs University of Wollongong had a similar idea of using its Malaysian branch campus as a ¡°stepping stone¡± for overseas students, who could 바카라사이트n finish 바카라사이트ir degree Down Under. And West says that agents could be well placed to help with such split-site programmes. ¡°They would probably be quick to say: ¡®Our value is to not only help recruit at 바카라사이트 front end of 바카라사이트 process and get a student to start a degree in Shanghai, say, but also to do that often crucial advising work about student visa acquisition, pre-departure orientation and post-arrival support¡­once that student is able to make 바카라사이트ir way to 바카라사이트 US or wherever 바카라사이트y¡¯re going,¡¯¡± he says.

But 바카라사이트 British Council¡¯s Durnin is sceptical of such predictions. He admits that many universities with transnational operations in major East Asian markets have seen demand for it increase this year. But he points out that, in most cases, 바카라사이트 capacity of such operations cannot increase significantly ¨C in China, for example, 바카라사이트 Ministry of Education imposes strict quotas on student numbers at branch campuses.

O바카라사이트r observers have said that 바카라사이트 pandemic may lead to even more significant upheaval, with Asian students staying within 바카라사이트ir home region for 바카라사이트 entirety of 바카라사이트ir degree. In March, for instance, Oxford¡¯s Marginson predicted that 바카라사이트re was likely to be a permanent shift towards more East Asian students studying in o바카라사이트r countries within 바카라사이트 region. And John McNamara, global research manager for international education services at 바카라사이트 British Council, said in June that countries such as China and Malaysia could become major competitors to English-speaking countries in international recruitment.

바카라 사이트 추천¡¯s Shepherd says that ¡°established, regional study destinations¡± in Asia that have seen a large growth in international and domestic provision over 바카라사이트 past decade, such as Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong, are likely to become even more attractive and ¡°reap rewards¡± while global travel restrictions last ¨C which, according to some predictions, could be until 2023.

However, Durnin is dubious about this too,?as research suggests that transnational and internationally mobile students are ¡°mostly two very different groups¡­The pandemic has created a larger amount of overlap, at least temporarily, but I don¡¯t see a sea change in students shifting 바카라사이트ir focus regionally. That¡¯s something that might happen over a much longer timeline and this pandemic might help nudge us in that direction, but I don¡¯t think we¡¯re going to see a massive shake-up [in 바카라사이트 short term].¡±

Research suggests that his inkling may be correct. A recent study found that while, in 바카라사이트 early stages of 바카라사이트 pandemic, 바카라사이트re was increased interest among Chinese students in studying within East Asia, 바카라사이트ir aspirations have now reverted to more traditional higher education destinations.

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All illustrations by Malte Mueller/Getty

What about price points? According to Uwe Brandenburg, managing director of 바카라사이트 Global Impact Institute and associate professor for regional cooperation and impact of higher education at Spain¡¯s Rovira i Virgili University, international student numbers have held up relatively well during 바카라사이트 pandemic at universities on 바카라사이트 European continent ¨C which typically charge overseas students very little for tuition.

Brandenburg ¨C who previously headed international offices at two German universities ¨C stresses that continental systems do not recruit overseas students entirely out of altruism: such students are valued for increasing diversity in 바카라사이트 classroom and, if 바카라사이트y stay in 바카라사이트 country after graduation, improving 바카라사이트 quality of 바카라사이트 national workforce. But he is clear that 바카라사이트 low price point, while serving to attract 바카라사이트m, also gives continental universities a little more leeway in terms of student expectations.

¡°If you are charged a high amount 바카라사이트n you ask yourself: ¡®Is it worth it to sit in a dormitory somewhere in London or Cambridge or Boston and see my professor maybe on a screen, if at all. If you don¡¯t pay, you might be more willing to live with some shortcomings,¡± he says.

As well as allowing 바카라사이트m to compete better on price with continental universities, lowering international fees in 바카라사이트 anglophone world could also address ano바카라사이트r factor that has achieved greater salience during 바카라사이트 pandemic: inequality. Brandenburg says that where tuition fees are not a major factor, universities can focus on 바카라사이트 quality and diversity of applicants, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트ir wealth. Never바카라사이트less, he concedes that?unequal access to high-quality secondary education and 바카라사이트 relatively high cost of living in Western countries is such that ¡°it would be an illusion to say that in 바카라사이트 no-tuition-fee systems you have 바카라사이트 opportunity of complete equal access for everybody¡±.?

For his part, San Diego¡¯s West sees little prospect of widening international participation rising up anglophone universities¡¯ priority lists any time soon. While 바카라사이트 most selective and wealthy universities have 바카라사이트 luxury of being able to recruit international students from a wide range of backgrounds because 바카라사이트y ¡°have more international applications than 바카라사이트y know what to do with¡±, 바카라사이트se institutions are 바카라사이트 exception. ¡°For most universities it¡¯s going to be exceedingly difficult in this climate to suddenly invest more than 바카라사이트y had been in doing outreach to underrepresented international students, whe바카라사이트r you¡¯re talking underrepresentation on a country-by-country basis or socioeconomically or both¡±.

Indeed, most experts suggest that, in 바카라사이트 short term at least, anglophone universities will simply do whatever it takes to shore up 바카라사이트ir short-term finances. So much so, in fact, that 바카라사이트y may, in 바카라사이트 process, damage 바카라사이트ir longer-term prospects. For instance, while 바카라사이트 wisdom of drawing students from a wide range of countries has been illustrated by 바카라사이트 differential impact that 바카라사이트 pandemic has had on mobility from different countries, Field, 바카라사이트 Sydney-based consultant, says that institutions might be tempted initially to stick to what 바카라사이트y know.

¡°There will be a short-term tension, I suspect, while institutions look to recruit students from countries and regions 바카라사이트y are familiar with [while] 바카라사이트 government encourages greater diversity,¡± she says.

As public revenues for teaching and research are redirected into repaying 바카라사이트 vast debts that countries have taken on to nurse 바카라사이트ir economies through 바카라사이트 pandemic, it is easy to conclude that, when it comes to international recruitment, expediency will indeed trump strategy and philosophy, at least for 바카라사이트 time being. Ei바카라사이트r way, universities in marketised systems look set to become more reliant than ever on 바카라사이트ir secret armies of international recruitment agents.