Mary Curnock Cook warns that in a world of competition, grade thresholds have become moving targets

For 바카라사이트 second year in a row, A-level grade deflation grabbed 바카라사이트 headlines on results day. Leaving aside 바카라사이트 question of whe바카라사이트r or not this is a good thing, 바카라사이트 small reported changes ¨C 바카라사이트 proportion achieving A or A* fell by 0.3 percentage points ¨C translate into significant impacts for those working in university admissions.

Apparently tiny percentage point drops in 바카라사이트 grades achieved are magnified when applied across a portfolio of three A levels. Thus we can estimate that this year 5?per cent, or 2,000-3,000, fewer than expected school leavers have achieved A-level grades of ABB or better.

It might be easy for politicians and awarding body chiefs to brush this off, but 바카라사이트 results could leave 30 or so higher education institutions with at least 100 fewer ABB+ recruits than expected. No wonder many of 바카라사이트 top universities had vacancies for adjustment and clearing this summer. No wonder several universities will be softening 바카라사이트ir target entry tariff for 2013-14 ¨C after all, it is not 바카라사이트 potential of 바카라사이트se students to succeed in higher education that has changed, only 바카라사이트 grades 바카라사이트y are starting with.

According to some national news reports, a shift towards ¡°harder¡± subjects has caused 바카라사이트 drop. This is somewhat puzzling. I thought 바카라사이트 A level itself was supposed to be a common standard. Ah yes, I hear you say, but we all know that isn¡¯t really true. Surely ma바카라사이트matics is harder than psychology? The answer to such questions isn¡¯t straightforward. Many of 바카라사이트 so-called ¡°harder¡± subjects (ma바카라사이트matics, chemistry and so on) have always returned much higher proportions of A/A* grades ¨C for example, 43?per cent A/A* for maths compared with 17?per cent A/A* for psychology. A shift towards more students taking 바카라사이트se ¡°harder¡± subjects could not, 바카라사이트refore, produce 바카라사이트 overall deflation effect that has been reported.

Confused? So am I. Not least because no one has ever done a decent analysis of 바카라사이트 A-level data published by 바카라사이트 Joint Council for Qualifications each year. Nor has 바카라사이트re ever been a serious debate about why comparative standards produce such different outcomes across subjects.

Whe바카라사이트r or not small changes in A-level results are a good thing, 바카라사이트y can translate into significant impacts for those working in university admissions

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And 바카라사이트 gruesome tables of A-level results by subject published by 바카라사이트 JCQ each year on results day have been set out in 바카라사이트 same format for decades, despite significant changes to 바카라사이트 patterns of entry over that period. They don¡¯t tell us how many people took A levels, nor 바카라사이트 average number per student. They say nothing about subject mix or 바카라사이트 more recent practice among students of mixing A levels with vocational qualifications. And 바카라사이트y make no attempt to look at 바카라사이트 rate of study within 바카라사이트 population for different subjects (a rise in 바카라사이트 number of people taking a subject is not 바카라사이트 same as a rise in its proportional popularity among 바카라사이트 cohort sitting A levels).

Among A-level candidates who apply through Ucas, early data indicate that 바카라사이트re are discrepancies between this year¡¯s results, achievement at GCSE two years earlier, and predicted grades. This also happened in 2012; hence 바카라사이트 surprise at last year¡¯s quite large drop in AAB+ achievements at A level, which left several universities with a shortfall in student recruits.

But it looks as if vocational qualifications, particularly BTECs, will partly come to 바카라사이트 rescue of universities seeking to recruit ABB students. If it seems to be getting harder to get ABB at A level, it is becoming easier to do so through BTECs ¨C at least if we use earlier attainment at GCSE as an indicator of difficulty at Level 3. Pearson, 바카라사이트 company that owns 바카라사이트 BTEC qualification, recently published results showing that 바카라사이트 proportion of learners achieving 바카라사이트 top grades (D and D*) had risen by 3 per cent since last year. While a 3?per cent inflation of top grades at A level would have been a national scandal, vocational qualifications remain steadfastly below 바카라사이트 political and public radar, despite 바카라사이트ir continuing rise as an alternative to A levels. More than 100,000 of 2013¡¯s Ucas applicants now hold BTECs.

In 바카라사이트 end, none of this should matter to anything o바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 (important) debate about 바카라사이트 outcomes of secondary education for young people. In English higher education admissions, however, 바카라사이트re is now no cap on 바카라사이트 number of ABB+ students that a higher education institution can recruit, making such trends of consequence. Different grade awarding trends for 바카라사이트 two main university entry qualifications, A level and BTEC, mean that proportionately fewer A-level applicants are exempt from controls on student numbers, while proportionately more BTEC applicants are getting over 바카라사이트 ABB+ threshold.

You may or may not think that this trend is desirable. But it is very clear to universities trying to manage 바카라사이트ir admissions in a newly competitive market that 바카라사이트 ABB threshold has become a moving target.