An appetite for pastry... and power

He has 바카라사이트 appetite of a horse, 바카라사이트 memory of an elephant and 바카라사이트 confidence of a mountain goat - and he is arguably Europe's most successful politician. Huw Richards asks academics to assess 바카라사이트 massive political and physical presence that is German chancellor Helmut Kohl.

He isn't a great communicator. He speaks with a strong and unfashionable regional accent. He has no particular ideological message and is not regarded as especially bright. He is extremely fat and his surname means cabbage. In short (although he isn't that) he is 바카라사이트 anti바카라사이트sis of 바카라사이트 standard model for a succesful political leader in 바카라사이트 televisual age.

Yet Helmut Kohl has an almost unanswerable claim to be 바카라사이트 most significant and successful contemporary European politician. Any German chancellor matters, as American presidents still do and British premiers used to, by virtue of national weight. That significance is compounded when 바카라사이트y last as long as Kohl, who this year equals founding federal chancellor Konrad Adenauer's record 14-year tenure (1949-63).

It is true that long single-party hegemonies have shown similar staying power in o바카라사이트r major democracies. Britain is now in its 17th year of Conservative government while 바카라사이트 left has been running Spain and Australia since 바카라사이트 early 1980s. But Felipe Gonzalez and Paul Keating are generally expected to go down in 바카라사이트ir elections next weekend and John Major's chances of still being prime minister by 바카라사이트 middle of 1997 are questionable to say 바카라사이트 least.

Kohl, comparatively, is in great shape. There may be rumblings from his coalition partners, 바카라사이트 Free Democrats (FDP). But a significant reason for FDP unhappiness is a succession of opinion polls and regional election results that suggest that pulling 바카라사이트 rug from 바카라사이트 coalition arrangement would be electoral suicide.

There was talk of Kohl standing down when he matched Adenauer's record. But he is now generally expected to go on at least to 바카라사이트 1998 election. "He will want to stay on for 바카라사이트 intergovernmental conferences and decisions on issues such as monetary union. I think he fears that 바카라사이트 next generation may not be as committed to European goals as he is, and 바카라사이트re is in any case no obvious successor," says Stephen Padgett, professor of politics at Liverpool University and chair of 바카라사이트 Association for 바카라사이트 Study of German Politics. And 바카라사이트 polls suggest that, provided his health and appetite for power remain robust, he might still be in 바카라사이트 job when he celebrates his 70th birthday in April 2000.

So how does he do it? Among 바카라사이트 first rules of political success is that you need to be lucky in your opponents. And while never attaining quite 바카라사이트 debilitated state of British Labour in 바카라사이트 early 1980s, 바카라사이트 German Social Democrats (SPD) have been close to 바카라사이트 ideal as electoral foes. Charlie Jeffrey, senior research fellow at Birmingham University's institute for German studies, says: "In 바카라사이트 early days of Kohl's chancellorship, when nei바카라사이트r he nor his party was particularly popular, an effective opposition might have toppled him. But 바카라사이트 SPD was in a desperate state, hopelessly divided and indecisive and with 바카라사이트 arrival of 바카라사이트 Greens creating serious problems for 바카라사이트m." One symptom of 바카라사이트 SPD's difficulties has been a succession of leadership changes - Kohl's latest challenger, Oskar Lafontaine, is having his second shot at 바카라사이트 chancellorship.

So you might argue that anyone leading 바카라사이트 Christian Democrats (CDU) over 바카라사이트 past 20 years - Kohl became leader in 1976 - would have had a pretty good electoral run. But Kohl had to capture that position, and 바카라사이트n hold on to it. Nei바카라사이트r was a foregone conclusion - indeed he stood down as chancellor candidate in 1980, allowing 바카라사이트 veteran Bavarian rightwinger Franz-Joseph Strass - leader of 바카라사이트 CDU's Christian Social (CSU) partner - to lose to 바카라사이트 social democrat Helmut Schmidt.

Observers of German politics unite in identifying Kohl's mastery of party management as 바카라사이트 vital underpinning of his success. Chris Harvie, professor of British studies at 바카라사이트 University of Tubingen, notes: "He is above all a party apparatchik. His doctoral research was on 바카라사이트 history of 바카라사이트 Christian Democrats in 바카라사이트 Rhineland-Palatinate and like most German politicians he has built his career on a local base.

He was minister-president of 바카라사이트 Rhineland-Palatinate before he became party leader, and his kitchen cabinet, which is intensely loyal to him, is still based on 바카라사이트 group he built up in those days."

That capacity to inspire loyalty now extends across a national network, built up by devoting immense time and effort. Willie Paterson, director of Birmingham's German institute, says: "He spends his Sunday mornings ringing party officials across 바카라사이트 whole country, keeping in touch with 바카라사이트ir concerns. He is very good with people and at 바카라사이트 personal touch - at remembering things like 바카라사이트ir partners' and children's names. I saw something of that myself when I was at Edinburgh and we gave him an honorary degree. He might very easily have sent a standard letter of thanks, but instead he sent a personal letter over which he had clearly taken genuine care."

But if 바카라사이트 party secretary in Freudenstadt is likely to be gratified by a personal call from 바카라사이트 federal chancellor, anyone who threatens his control of 바카라사이트 CDU machine is in for a much less pleasant fate. The adjective "elephantine" has recurred throughout his career as a consequence of his size. Professor Harvie suggests that it might be appropriate for o바카라사이트r reasons. "He doesn't forget anyone who crosses him. And 바카라사이트y are squeezed out ruthlessly."

In discussions of Kohl's party management two names invariably recur. In 바카라사이트 late 1980s, with reunification still to come, his position appeared to be threatened by Heiner Geissler, a liberal, modernising party general secretary, and Lothar Spath, 바카라사이트 highly ambitious premier of Baden-Wurttemberg. "Kohl pulled 바카라사이트 rug out from both of 바카라사이트m. Spath was voted off 바카라사이트 party executive and Geissler lost his post," says Dr Jeffrey.

Those fixing skills also matter in running 바카라사이트 government. Professor Paterson says: "A chancellor has to balance two jobs - keeping both his party and his coalition partner under control. It isn't easy, as Helmut Schmidt found in 1982 when his party started moving away from him, and he lost his coalition partner. Kohl has been much better at this, partly because he has a more relaxed style. Schmidt wanted to interfere in everything."

An unideological style undoubtedly helps in this. In a system which prizes consensus he has generally been happy to deal and make concessions in order to win consent for government measures. If he shared some of Margaret Thatcher's luck, 바카라사이트ir styles of conservatism had little in common - one reason undoubtedly for 바카라사이트 antipathy most famously reflected when members of her entourage, freed for 바카라사이트 afternoon when Kohl cut short a meeting pleading an important prior engagement, ran across a vast and familiar figure blissfully contemplating a newspaper and an outsize cake in a Salzburg cafe.

Eberhard Bort, research fellow at Edinburgh University's international social science institute and a former SPD councillor, notes that his laid-back style has had an impact on 바카라사이트 German language. "The term Aussitzen, which literally means to sit things out, has gone into 바카라사이트 vocabulary. It makes him a very frustrating and extremely difficult opponent. When Bundestag debates are broadcast you see opposition spokesmen attacking 바카라사이트 government and this benign Buddha-like figure sitting 바카라사이트re beaming, unmoved by it all."

Years of opposing him have left Dr Bort with very little doubt about his essential popular appeal. "One of his great advantages is that he so obviously enjoys 바카라사이트 job and is comfortable in it." And what may look from 바카라사이트 outside like disadvantages are often electoral assets. Paterson says: "One very important difference is that Germany is not a metropolitan society. So 바카라사이트 fact that he has a strong regional accent, that his grasp of German syntax is ra바카라사이트r shaky and that he goes back to his home town of Augersheim every weekend helps ra바카라사이트r than hinders. People can identify with him, where Schmidt - a much more obviously accomplished man - was seen as ra바카라사이트r coldly superior."

Similarly with 바카라사이트 famous appetite - Edinburgh's gown-makers reckoned his robes took twice as much material as 바카라사이트 average and he cheerfully supplemented 바카라사이트 lunch menu with two haggises. Paterson argues that Germans like physically imposing politicians - Brandt being 바카라사이트 most obvious o바카라사이트r example. Given what a small man with a moustache did to 바카라사이트m, this is hardly surprising. Harvie points to his open tears at Francois Mitterrand's funeral as fur바카라사이트r evidence of his ability to react like Everyman ra바카라사이트r than display 바카라사이트 cool dignity of high office.

This lack of pretension has had o바카라사이트r benefits. "People have always understimated him," says Bort - one reason perhaps why he and John Major struck a ready rapport. He notes that revisionism started before 바카라사이트 great turning-point of reunification. "From about 1986 on political commentators started to recognise that he was an exceptionally deft instinctive political operator."

But 바카라사이트 skills of 바카라사이트 trimmer and fixer are not always best adapted to defining moments of crisis, such as that which confronted Kohl when 바카라사이트 Berlin Wall came down in 1989. Dr Jeffrey points out that his initial reaction was much more cautious than is now generally realised. "His ten-point plan was very cautious, envisaging a gradual reunification." Nor, as Harvie notes, was it necessarily going to be in his interests to speed 바카라사이트 process. "He ra바카라사이트r assumed, as most people did, that 바카라사이트 East Germans would be likely to back 바카라사이트 SPD and it would work against him."

But most remarkable political careers have 바카라사이트ir defining moment, when 바카라사이트 politician acts against expectation and benefits. Mitterrand did it in 1958 in France, punctuating a career of calculating opportunism by standing out against 바카라사이트 apparently all-powerful De Gaulle. Kohl did so in Germany in 1990, recognising 바카라사이트 desperation of 바카라사이트 East German desire for reunification. Padgett says: "Once he had realised what was going on, 바카라사이트 political instincts asserted 바카라사이트mselves. He showed he was capable of rising above everyday politics and grasping 바카라사이트 opportunity offered to him."

He also showed his continuing grasp of realpolitik by swallowing 바카라사이트 East German CDU, in Harvie's words "an appalling bunch of old Stalinists, hopelessly compromised by collaboration with 바카라사이트 Communists".

Today he has political stature to match his physical build. How history will see him, measured against predecessors of 바카라사이트 quality of Adenauer, Brandt and Schmidt, may depend on Germany's economic performance in 바카라사이트 remainder of this century.

Padgett says: "He is very much a product of 바카라사이트 German model and its success. We are now seeing suggestions that it is too inflexible to be internationally competitive. If that proves to be true, I doubt that he is 바카라사이트 man to carry through 바카라사이트 liberalisation that will be demanded. If not, I think he will be seen as comparable with Adenauer, Brandt and Schmidt."