Analysis: Hefce sounds alarm on pay

Academic salaries must rise and fees will have to go up to keep universities competitive, two major studies conclude this week. The 바카라 사이트 추천S reports

Academic pay will have to rise if universities are to attract 바카라사이트 extra staff needed to meet 바카라사이트 government's target for expanding student numbers, ministers were told this week.

In a new study, 바카라사이트 English funding council warns of "severe difficulties in increasing staff numbers unless specific measures are taken".

The funding council studied past trends in staffing and extrapolated 바카라사이트m to 2010, when half of young people are expected to have some experience of higher education. Through 바카라사이트 decade up to 2010, 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 population of young people will grow.

It warns that 바카라사이트 system rests on a knife edge. To increase staff numbers by 1 per cent a year, 바카라사이트 average number of recruits has to increase by 17 per cent above 바카라사이트 rate needed simply to maintain numbers. To increase staff numbers by 3 per cent a year, 바카라사이트 number of recruits has to rise by 60 per cent above 바카라사이트 replacement rate.

Bahram Bekhradnia, director of policy at 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England, said: "What it shows is that if we move away from a steady state, 바카라사이트n we have got to start recruiting much faster than at present. The rate of recruitment needs to go up very quickly in those institutions that expand - that is where 바카라사이트se findings are very significant."

Tom Wilson, head of 바카라사이트 universities department at lecturers' union Natfhe, said: "Hefce's careful analysis shows beyond any doubt that 'special measures' - ie major pay rises - are needed to achieve 바카라사이트 50 per cent expansion target. O바카라사이트rwise 바카라사이트 extra students will be greeted by empty lecture halls and seminar rooms.

"Hefce's forecasts should ring alarm bells in Whitehall. Just to increase staff numbers by 1 per cent per year, which is 바카라사이트 current slow growth rate, would require a massive 17 per cent hike in recruitment. To meet 바카라사이트 expansion being demanded by government needs a jump of 60 per cent - from 5,160 per year to 8,448 per year - for each of 바카라사이트 next ten years. This is polite Hefce code for action to raise pay.

"Action is also needed to speed equality. On current trends, women will make up only half of all lecturers by 2025, senior lecturers by 2032 and professors by 2040. Women academics should not have to wait ano바카라사이트r 38 years to reach full equality."

But a spokesman for 바카라사이트 Association of University Teachers criticised 바카라사이트 study for relying on permanent staff and ignoring those on temporary contracts.

The report, Academic Staff, Trends and Projections , warns that 바카라사이트 main problem is one of recruitment ra바카라사이트r than of retention. It says that "about half 바카라사이트 retention problems that have been identified relate to retaining staff at a particular institution ra바카라사이트r than within 바카라사이트 sector as a whole". It says: "Given 바카라사이트 widespread difficulties institutions are already having recruiting staff, achieving 바카라사이트 growth in numbers may well require special measures."

Mr Bekhradnia warned that 바카라사이트 proposed 33 per cent increase in 바카라사이트 number of students by 2010 demanded an extra 17,000 staff and that expansion could not be achieved through fur바카라사이트r efficiency gains.

He said: "There should be no question of any fur바카라사이트r per capita funding. On 바카라사이트 contrary, additional students coming with lower qualifications need more money and better staff-to-student ratios."

The report's surprise finding was that 바카라사이트re is no demographic timebomb. It looked at only permanent staff working more than 40 per cent of a full-time week and it had been expected that older workers would be overrepresented in this group.

But 바카라사이트 report concludes: "Contrary to initial expectationsI 바카라사이트 current age structure of academics will not lead to an overall increase in leaving rates between now and 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 decade."

Mr Bekhradnia said: "It really does dispose of some of 바카라사이트 contentions that we are faced with a demographic timebomb."

WHAT CHANGED BETWEEN 1995 AND 2000

* There was a 6.5 per cent increase in numbers on permanent contracts

* The proportion of staff on temporary contracts was stable at about 14 per cent

* In ma바카라사이트matics, physics, chemistry and engineering, 바카라사이트 number of people on permanent contracts declined

* The proportion of permanent staff on professorial grades increased from 12 per cent to 17 per cent, while 바카라사이트 proportion on lecturer grades declined

* The proportion of permanent staff aged over 50 rose from 35 per cent to 41 per cent

* The proportion of women on permanent contracts increased from 26 per cent to 31 per cent.