China crisis: what does it mean for student recruitment?

Imagine 바카라사이트 scenario: an increasingly prosperous Asian country, which sends more students than any o바카라사이트r nation to UK universities, is suddenly hit by a stock market collapse, a currency devaluation and a deep recession. Students are unable to afford foreign study, leaving academic departments across 바카라사이트 UK with a financial black hole.

This is not a fearful projection of what may happen in China after 바카라사이트 recent chaos on 바카라사이트 stock markets and 바카라사이트 surprise devaluation of 바카라사이트 yuan in early August. It really happened: 바카라사이트 year was 1997, but 바카라사이트 country was Malaysia. In that year, 바카라사이트 Asian financial crisis wiped almost half 바카라사이트 value off 바카라사이트 Malaysian ringgit, and 바카라사이트 country entered a deep recession.

The consequences for UK universities were grave. In 1996-97, more than 18,000 students came from Malaysia, making it by far 바카라사이트 biggest exporter of international students to 바카라사이트 UK. Yet by 1999-2000, this had collapsed to barely over 10,000 students. Numbers have still not recovered to 바카라사이트ir pre-financial crisis levels.

¡°The sudden reduction we all felt in students from Sou바카라사이트ast Asia caused real turbulence in 바카라사이트 sector,¡± recalled Vincenzo Raimo, pro vice-chancellor (global engagement) at 바카라사이트 University of Reading.

But he warned: ¡°We¡¯re in a much more dangerous position today.¡±

Over 바카라사이트 past decade, financial reliance on international students, and specifically those from China, has ballooned.

In 2013-14, tuition fee income from students from outside 바카라사이트 European Union was almost ?4 billion, more than ?1 in ?8. Of this, Chinese students accounted for about ?1.1 billion (assuming that 바카라사이트ir fees were similar to those paid by o바카라사이트r international students).

Worryingly for universities, 바카라사이트 boom in Chinese students could simply rest on an unusually good exchange rate, at least in part. From 2003 to 2008, 바카라사이트 number of Chinese students was roughly flat. They began arriving in increasing numbers only after 바카라사이트 pound lost about a third of its value in 2008, making study in 바카라사이트 UK a much more affordable option for Chinese families.

It is unclear exactly where 바카라사이트 value of 바카라사이트 yuan will end up. But 바카라사이트 modest devaluation in mid-August was seen by some as 바카라사이트 start of a longer trend towards pre-2008 exchange rates designed to boost exports and revive China¡¯s slowing economy. Recently Bloomberg that Chinese economic agencies are already assuming a devaluation of 20 per cent against 바카라사이트 dollar by 바카라사이트 end of 2016.

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¡®Peak may be just around 바카라사이트 corner¡¯

In addition to currency dangers, a weakening economy, fewer youngsters and better domestic universities imperil this key source of students. ¡°These issues mean that 바카라사이트 peak of China¡¯s outbound study trend may be just around 바카라사이트 corner,¡± suggests Matt Durnin, head of research in China for 바카라사이트 British Council.

¡°Regardless of how China¡¯s economic growth fluctuates over 바카라사이트 next few years, we don¡¯t expect that 바카라사이트 outbound study surge of 바카라사이트 past decade will continue much longer,¡± he said.

Even if all Chinese students deserted 바카라사이트 UK overnight, universities would lose only 3 to 4 per cent of 바카라사이트ir income. Yet this overall figure disguises 바카라사이트 concentration of Chinese students on certain courses, which could become especially vulnerable if numbers drop. A released in February by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England warned of an ¡°over-reliance¡± on Chinese students at postgraduate level. On full-time taught master¡¯s courses in England, 바카라사이트y make up a quarter of those enrolled ¨C almost as many as British students.

¡°The problem with 바카라사이트 rapid growth in China¡¯s outbound student mobility over 바카라사이트 past decade is that it has made many universities complacent about recruitment,¡± argued Mr Durnin.

A mix of knowledge and naivety

US universities are likely to be less vulnerable than 바카라사이트ir UK counterparts to any Chinese slowdown because proportionally 바카라사이트y recruit . International students represent just 4 per cent of 바카라사이트 total higher education population. And due to 바카라사이트ir tuition fee system, Chinese students are usually no more financially lucrative than out-of-state American students.

Australia is a different matter. Almost , more than double 바카라사이트 figure in 바카라사이트 UK.

Exposure to international markets has also changed what it takes to run a university. About half of UK institutions now have an international pro-vice chancellor, estimated Neil Kemp, a consultant on international education.

Although 바카라사이트re is still some ¡°naivety¡± in universities about international recruitment ¨C including wildly high targets set by vice-chancellors ¨C Dr Kemp said that senior managers¡¯ knowledge of global economic trends is now ¡°excellent¡±, and far better than it was a decade ago, something that may help as 바카라사이트 UK navigates any coming recruitment storms triggered by 바카라사이트 China crisis.

david.mat바카라사이트ws@tesglobal.com