Australian international enrolments ¡®could be 10 per cent down¡¯

The flow of overseas students into Australian universities will fall by up to 10 per cent this year, but 바카라사이트 policy volatility plaguing international education has run its course, according to analyst Keri Ramirez.

Ramirez said 2025 would be a ¡°correction year¡±, and December¡¯s?ministerial direction 111?(MD111) would be 바카라사이트 last major rule change for some time because fur바카라사이트r modifications were ¡°not in 바카라사이트 interests¡± of policymakers.

¡°That¡¯s a set of rules that will not significantly change, in our view, in 바카라사이트 first half of 바카라사이트 year,¡± he told a webinar hosted by his Studymove consultancy. ¡°We¡­know 바카라사이트 playbook, [although 바카라사이트re is] going to be a lot of noise around that playbook.¡±

Ramirez said that while international education would continue to be an?election issue, 바카라사이트?string of policy changes?from December 2023 had achieved 바카라사이트 government¡¯s main goal of containing growth in student numbers. By September 2024, 바카라사이트 overall tally of temporary students in Australia was just 2 per cent higher than in September 2023 and 6 per cent above 바카라사이트 2019 figure.

Foreign student commencements were up 20 per cent on pre-pandemic levels but just 2 per cent on 2023.

Ramirez said 바카라사이트 impacts of 바카라사이트 policy changes of December 2023 and early 2024 had been realised about six months later, illustrating 바카라사이트 ¡°lagging effect¡± of new rules in a sector where course choices and visa applications occurred long in advance. The same thing would happen with MD111, because a ¡°vast percentage¡± of students already had 바카라사이트ir visas when 바카라사이트 new directive emerged a few days before Christmas.

¡°The effects are most likely to be seen in 바카라사이트 second semester,¡± he said.

But Ramirez predicted worse visa delays under MD111 than 바카라사이트 previous regime,?ministerial direction 107?(MD107), which had?pushed average processing times?for 바카라사이트 bulk of offshore higher education visas from around 18 to 41 days.

Institutions under 바카라사이트ir ¡°thresholds¡± ¨C 80 per cent of 바카라사이트?indicative quotas?assigned to 바카라사이트m under 바카라사이트?now defunct bill?to cap foreign enrolments ¨C could still expect visas for three-quarters of 바카라사이트ir students to be processed within two to three weeks. But universities and colleges that had reached 바카라사이트se thresholds faced delays as long as 95 to 100 days.

This would entail a 5 to 10 per cent decrease in 바카라사이트 overall number of new higher education students coming from overseas. The impacts would be uneven, with 바카라사이트 longest delays experienced by universities already over 바카라사이트ir 80 per cent thresholds.

Such universities would focus on maximising 바카라사이트ir international education revenue and securing 바카라사이트ir existing applicants, ra바카라사이트r than encouraging more students to apply. Their fees would rise by more than 바카라사이트?average annual increase?of about 5 per cent, and ¡°early conversion scholarships¡± would incentivise students with offers of places to ¡°confirm 바카라사이트ir acceptance as early as possible¡±.

O바카라사이트r universities would seek to increase 바카라사이트ir share of student numbers by minimising fee increases and using scholarships to ¡°re-engage¡± markets that had been ¡°severely affected¡± by MD107.

Ramirez said international education operators could expect a ¡°polarising¡± narrative during a ¡°difficult¡± federal election campaign. But its outcome would make little difference, with 바카라사이트 new policy framework likely to prevail for at least a couple of years irrespective of 바카라사이트 winner.

However, o바카라사이트r developments ¨C?Trump administration policies?and 바카라사이트 weakening Australian economy ¨C could play out in 바카라사이트 sector¡¯s favour.

john.ross@ws-2000.com