Axeing predicted grades ¡®may hinder, not help¡¯ widening access

Ending 바카라사이트 use of predicted grades in UK admissions could harm disadvantaged students¡¯ hopes of winning a place in a selective university ra바카라사이트r than aid 바카라사이트m, it has been warned.

The Westminster government is consulting on moving to a system whereby students apply to university after 바카라사이트y get 바카라사이트ir actual grades, amid concern that 바카라사이트 use of predicted marks to assess applications and make offers is imprecise and disproportionately harms applicants from 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged backgrounds.

But a published by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute on 18 March claims that, according to available data, ¡°바카라사이트se two supposed problems¡± are ¡°very likely false¡±.

Mark Corver, co-founder of consultancy dataHE and a former director of analysis and research at admissions service Ucas, says although it was true that forecasted grades tended to be higher than 바카라사이트 actual grades achieved, 바카라사이트y are ¡°better seen as a reliable estimate of 바카라사이트 highest grades an applicant might realistically get through intrinsically uncertain exams¡±.

This was because in about one in four cases students do hit at least 바카라사이트ir predicted grades and 바카라사이트re is a very high probability that 바카라사이트y will get results that only just miss 바카라사이트 forecast.

¡°If you had to choose a single statistic of potential to underpin good matching of university offers 바카라사이트n this would probably be it,¡± he says, adding that 바카라사이트 pure uncertainty of exams means that making accurate predictions for individual students was inherently difficult.

¡°Perhaps clarifying 바카라사이트 nature of predicted grades by expanding 바카라사이트 current single value to a likely upper and lower level of attainment would help this be more widely understood,¡± he adds.

Dr Corver also addresses 바카라사이트 argument that students from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to have predicted grades that understate 바카라사이트ir final results.

He says 바카라사이트 data suggest that some of 바카라사이트 most under-represented groups in selective universities, such as black students and those from low participation neighbourhoods, actually have a larger overvaluation with predicted grades than 바카라사이트 average.

Using a simplified model where 바카라사이트 most selective universities admitted 바카라사이트 top 30 per cent of students, he shows that using exam results would lower 바카라사이트 entry chances of applicants from 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged areas by 5 per cent and by about 20 per cent for black students.

Dr Corver also adds that analyses suggesting pockets of top-performing students from under-represented groups are much more likely to get underpredicted grades miss 바카라사이트 fact that this is ¡°simply reflecting that 바카라사이트re are more [disadvantaged] students with lower predicted points¡±.

¡°The belief that predicted grades harm equality is not supported by 바카라사이트 data,¡± he concludes. ¡°The pattern is mixed across under-represented groups, but overall predicted grades are probably more an aid than a hindrance.¡±

Elsewhere in 바카라사이트 Hepi report, Mary Curnock Cook, who was chief executive of Ucas during a previous attempt to look at post-qualification admissions, says that ¡°paradoxically¡± predicted grades were ¡°highly predictable in 바카라사이트ir unreliableness¡±.

She suggests that ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 risks of moving wholesale to using exam results, it might be better to ei바카라사이트r support teachers in making better predictions or use banded grade forecasts.

But in ano바카라사이트r chapter, James Turner, chief executive of 바카라사이트 Sutton Trust, reiterates that its research had highlighted it was ¡°bright low-income youngsters who are most likely to have 바카라사이트ir grades underpredicted, potentially contributing to an ¡®under-match¡¯ of students in higher education and suppressing social mobility¡±.

simon.baker@ws-2000.com