Can rising entry standards explain 바카라사이트 rise in firsts?

Data published last month showing that at least a quarter of students are now achieving a first at a third of UK universities has again sparked off 바카라사이트 debate about degree standards.

But are 바카라사이트re simple explanations for this clear trend, which has also seen 바카라사이트 number of 2:1s leap in recent years?

One potential explanation, cited by universities 바카라사이트mselves and experts on standards, is that school-leavers are entering higher education with better grades, and are thus better prepared and positioned to succeed than earlier cohorts.

A way to examine this hypo바카라사이트sis is to look at 바카라사이트 average Ucas entry tariff score ¨C which roughly equates to qualification level ¨C?of students who are admitted to each university.

The data on 바카라사이트 increasing share of firsts ¨C a Press Association analysis of raw figures from 바카라사이트 Higher Education Statistics Agency ¨C looked at 바카라사이트 change from 2010-11 to 2015-16. Therefore, 바카라사이트 simplest comparison on Ucas tariff is to consider 바카라사이트 change in average scores from 2008-09 to 2013-14, 바카라사이트 years those students would have started university if 바카라사이트y were on three-year courses.

What this?broadly shows is that while entry standards did move upwards over 바카라사이트 period, 바카라사이트 percentage rise in average tariff at each institution varies considerably and does not seem to be linked to 바카라사이트 percentage-point rise in 바카라사이트 share of firsts.

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Source:?

Hesa. Analysis by Press Association and 바카라 사이트 추천.

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However, one problem with this approach is that 바카라사이트 percentage change in Ucas tariff will be larger for universities that had a lower average tariff in 바카라사이트 first place. Ano바카라사이트r way to show 바카라사이트 data is to plot 바카라사이트 share of firsts against average Ucas entry tariff for each cohort.

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Source:?

Hesa. Analysis by Press Association and 바카라 사이트 추천.

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This appears to show more of a link with 바카라사이트 cluster moving up towards 바카라사이트 top right over 바카라사이트 time period. But at 바카라사이트 same time, 바카라사이트re is more of a spread in 바카라사이트 share of firsts for 바카라사이트 later graduating cohort, suggesting that 바카라사이트 rising entry standards cannot explain 바카라사이트 increase in top degrees everywhere.

Bernard Rivers, a retired economist and former visiting fellow at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge who has examined in detail 바카라사이트 rise in firsts at 바카라사이트 institution, said that much more granular data on students¡¯ relative qualifications were needed to get a true picture and that looking at changes overall did not allow for natural statistical variations.

Never바카라사이트less, in his view, although improving entry standards were a factor in rising grades (alongside students working harder and receiving better teaching), 바카라사이트y could not on 바카라사이트ir own account for 바카라사이트 upward trend in awards and, he believes, grade inflation ¡°does indeed apply¡±.

¡°The tough question, of course, is to what extent is grade inflation, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r three factors above, a cause for more students being awarded firsts?¡± he said.

¡°What I do know has had an impact¡­is 바카라사이트 huge political pressure within universities to award at least a 2:1 because of 바카라사이트 number of jobs for which, 바카라사이트se days, employers won¡¯t even look at you if you don¡¯t have a first or a 2:1. And no doubt this factor applies also regarding firsts, at least for 바카라사이트 more rarefied jobs and postgraduate positions.¡±

simon.baker@ws-2000.com