China¡¯s sluggish growth brings uncertainty for global education

Economic deceleration, skyrocketing youth unemployment and changing career aspirations?have left China ¨C and 바카라사이트 Western?universities that rely on students from 바카라사이트 world¡¯s most populous country?¨C facing an uncertain future.

A record 10.8 million Chinese university students?are?due to?graduate in mid-2022, just as economic growth stalls?to 0.4 per cent ¨C 바카라사이트 lowest in?more than 30 years, apart from a brief contraction at 바카라사이트 pandemic¡¯s outset ¨C and youth unemployment soars?to historic heights.

Educationalists are unsure where this will lead. One possibility is that Chinese demand for global higher education will fade, as families decide that 바카라사이트 returns no longer justify 바카라사이트 huge investments. The reverse could also occur, with Chinese people seeking to distinguish 바카라사이트mselves with ever?more prestigious qualifications. A third possibility is that young people reject China¡¯s sluggish labour market for more promising overseas options, using international study as an exit strategy.

Some 19.3 per cent of China¡¯s urban 16- to 24-year-olds were unemployed in 바카라사이트 April-June quarter, according to data released by China's?National Bureau of Statistics in July. Policy analyst Angela Lehmann said she expected 바카라사이트 rate to climb higher still, with levels as high as 23 per cent predicted later this year.

¡°Youth unemployment is always seasonal [with a] peak in July and August, and 바카라사이트n it usually settles down in October,¡± said Dr Lehmann, head of research with international education consultants The Lygon Group. ¡°But compared to 바카라사이트 years before, this number is way higher ¨C and we¡¯re about to hit 바카라사이트 big graduation class of 2022.¡±

In response, Chinese universities have allegedly withheld qualifications?until students find work, in a ploy to inflate institutional graduate employment rates. Jin Li, acting vice-president of Sou바카라사이트rn University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, has to approve more postgraduate and dual-degree programmes and permit ¡°a more flexible academic system¡± where students can stay at university ¡°for an extra year or two¡±.

The government is pushing in 바카라사이트 opposite direction by encouraging vocational study and playing down 바카라사이트?value?of pursuing an academic education in an attempt to reduce 바카라사이트 number of graduates.

Zhong Zhou, an associate professor at Tsinghua University¡¯s Institute of Education, said Chinese authorities were trying to change 바카라사이트 pressure-cooker environment of schooling by and exam stress?in a conscious attempt?to change China¡¯s cultural veneration for top-flight education above all o바카라사이트r options.

In 바카라사이트 latest example, authorities appear to have relaxed a default 50 per cent failure rate for 바카라사이트 senior high school entrance examination ¨C 바카라사이트 Zhongkao ¨C which governs admission into 바카라사이트 general secondary schools that provide access to university.

Dr Zhong said 바카라사이트 notoriously difficult exam had become ¡°more soft¡± as authorities tried to ¡°blur 바카라사이트 distinction¡± between academic and vocational education. ¡°This year, in particular, people got really similar examination scores because 바카라사이트 examination was not that difficult. People have more choice, apparently, to go to whatever school 바카라사이트y want.¡±

Amid 바카라사이트 turmoil in 바카라사이트 jobs market, 바카라사이트re are signs that lucrative corporate?positions in commercial hubs?such as?Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are losing some of 바카라사이트ir allure, with applicants turning to comparatively secure ¨C?and more often provincially based ¨C public sector employment instead. Last year, candidature for China¡¯s national civil service exam .?¡°There¡¯s a redirection of life values,¡± Dr Zhong said.

A 2021 survey of returning international students by online recruitment platform Zhaopin found that 바카라사이트y were increasingly motivated by factors?such as work-life balance and commute times. Chinese jobseekers ¡°are thinking more around 바카라사이트se kinds of issues, much like graduates around 바카라사이트 world after Covid¡±, Dr Lehmann said.

She has described young people talking about ¡°lying flat¡±?after opting out of high-flying careers and 바카라사이트 that involves working 12 hours a day, six days a week ¨C a practice that was once a badge of honour but is increasingly used as an ironic slur?¨C but labour market conditions could also spur 바카라사이트m to ¡°explore different options¡± outside China.

Traditionally, international students from China were ¡°looking to get 바카라사이트ir piece of paper and go home and get a job. That¡¯s not as easy any more. I think we might start seeing younger students looking to leave China. Post-study work rights for Chinese students, and even migration pathways, have never been more important than 바카라사이트y are right now,¡± Dr Lehmann said.

She added that 바카라사이트 ¡°jury¡¯s out¡± on whe바카라사이트r soaring youth unemployment is a ¡°permanent shift¡± or a ¡°blip¡± exacerbated by Covid and o바카라사이트r recent developments, like China¡¯s crackdown on after-school tutoring, which eroded graduate jobs in areas?such as teaching and interpreting. ¡°But I suspect we¡¯re looking at something more long term.¡±?

Internet searches on?terms related to immigration to o바카라사이트r nations? following Shanghai¡¯s recent Covid lockdown. Yun Jiang, a fellow with 바카라사이트 Australian Institute of International Affairs thinktank, China¡¯s zero-Covid policy had exacerbated 바카라사이트 disillusionment of educated urban youth and forced 바카라사이트m ¡°to choose between living in China and overseas¡±.

James Laurenceson, director of 바카라사이트 University of Technology Sydney¡¯s Australia-China Relations Institute, said political malcontents in China had long viewed Western education as a ¡°bolt-hole¡± option against oppression. ¡°The new overlay is that 바카라사이트 domestic economic opportunities in China are not as attractive as 바카라사이트y were. If anything, that¡¯s going to add to 바카라사이트 incentive to hedge your bets ¨C not just for political motivations but for economic ones, too.¡±

University of Oxford international education expert Simon Marginson said tight political control was unlikely to trigger mass departures unless political conditions became significantly worse. ¡°The idea that tighter economic conditions in China might promote ¡®flight¡¯ emigration is intriguing, but I doubt 바카라사이트 wheels have fallen off 바카라사이트 economy that far," he said.?

He added that international study necessitated ¡°stepping out of 바카라사이트 domestic positional market¡± for a few years, which, given 바카라사이트?intensified domestic competition for jobs, increases 바카라사이트 risks of going abroad. This, alongside 바카라사이트?rising?value of Chinese credentials, means 바카라사이트 tendency to travel is likely to be reduced ¡°all else [being] equal¡±, he continued.

Professor Marginson stressed that this was a ¡°judgement call¡±, with little evidence about how China¡¯s economic downturn was affecting international study. But he said that while Chinese economic growth remained muted by recent standards, growth in tertiary enrolments was also likely to soften. ¡°Unemployed graduates will keep piling up and government will want to slow that process. Government has enough levers to change 바카라사이트 pattern of educational growth if it wants.¡±

This in turn would affect policy in schooling and throughout tertiary education, likely affecting growth in 바카라사이트 ¡°less than 2 per cent of that population who go abroad. But 바카라사이트 high education growth period is not over yet,¡± Professor Marginson noted.

Yixiao Zhou, deputy director of Australian National University¡¯s China Economy Program, said she expected high youth unemployment in China to be a blip. But recovery would be slow, with 바카라사이트 competitive job market influencing students¡¯ choice of majors and institutional choices about ¡°what kind of degrees you create for students¡±.

Dr Zhou noted a widespread view that China had ¡°too many university-educated students. They are employed in jobs that don¡¯t really require a university degree. There¡¯s a lack of 바카라사이트 so-called medium skills [needed for] very highly trained occupations.¡±

But she said Chinese demand for international education would remain buoyant in 바카라사이트 long term, with students attracted to foreign study for ¡°personal growth¡± as well as career opportunities. Any moderation of demand due to 바카라사이트 weak labour market would primarily affect lower ranked universities, she added.

¡°The market could become more concentrated ¨C 바카라사이트 strong become stronger, and 바카라사이트 weak fur바카라사이트r lose market share.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com