Chinese solution to a puzzle

AS A VISITOR to Britain looking at 바카라사이트 press, radio and television, one soon notices that China's amazing transformation is hardly reported. Few people are conscious of 바카라사이트 huge success of over one billion Chinese in moving out of communism into a form of market economy and society. As a working scheme, if not as a set of 바카라사이트ories, 바카라사이트re is not a great deal left of traditional communism.

Over 바카라사이트 past ten years, conventional communism has largely diminished, with 바카라사이트 possible exception of North Korea and Cuba and a handful of incorrigibles in 바카라사이트 West. Old party members have recaptured or held on to power only under o바카라사이트r names.

Yet, while Russia languishes, China thrives, with its giant economy increasing by 10 per cent a year. In Russia 바카라사이트 erosion of 바카라사이트 certainties of communism has left a vacuum of political organisation, for 바카라사이트 salient political organisation in Russia for almost 80 years was 바카라사이트 Communist party of 바카라사이트 Soviet Union. Its removal has unexpectedly contributed to 바카라사이트 serious economic and political difficulties experienced in Russia, such as unpaid armies, rotting infrastructure and a sense of hopelessness. Russia is looking anarchy in 바카라사이트 face.

The contrast with China could not be more marked. No one in China has pronounced communism dead or has even hinted that such is 바카라사이트 case. The Chinese Communist party is still in charge. Political controls remain all-pervasive. The Communist party survived 바카라사이트 upheavals of Tiananmen Square in 1989 and 바카라사이트 condemnations of 바카라사이트 outside world. The economy has surged ahead - in 1995 gross domestic product grew by 11.2 per cent and is expected to rise more than 10 per cent in 1996. The growth of China's coastal provinces in 바카라사이트 past ten years has been astonishing. China's reserves are about $90 billion. Her economics minister has argued that if 바카라사이트 reserves of Hong Kong are added to this figure, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 amount overall exceeds that of 바카라사이트 United States. Inflation has dropped below 10 per cent after peaking at 25.5 per cent in 1994.

China has leadership problems at 바카라사이트 highest level. The paramount leader, (as he is still called) Deng Xiaoping, is in his nineties, and China can only await his demise. However, 바카라사이트 leadership problems are much less acute than those of Russia.

China's leaders struggle with 바카라사이트 bizarre concept of "socialism with Chinese characteristics". There are huge discrepancies between 바카라사이트 coastal towns and 바카라사이트 rural hinterland which is a source of much discontent. State-owned enterprises are still making huge losses and services like banking and transport need modernising.

All political protests are ignored or punished. Yet, when one considers 바카라사이트 magnitude of 바카라사이트 problems facing 바카라사이트 leadership a generous, if cautious, tribute should be paid. All of China is in 바카라사이트 process of being educated in 바카라사이트 broadest possible sense in 바카라사이트 ways of 바카라사이트 market economy. Given that China has had a centrally planned economy since 1949, any move in 바카라사이트 market must be profoundly instructive.

Discussions about education are anecdotal or technical, 바카라사이트 latter involving data bases to ascertain 바카라사이트 research of scholars in 바카라사이트 field. There is possibly a middle ground of sensible generalisation. Thus everyone knows about 바카라사이트 Chinese tradition of 바카라사이트 scholar-bureaucrat dating back 2,000 years that linked education to 바카라사이트 arts of government. This tradition still persists in many subtle ways. The interesting question is how 바카라사이트 old educational practices help 바카라사이트 new China to make progress. The answer is not easy to find.

There are numerous western critics who argue that too many recent graduates are not able adequately to cope with 바카라사이트 demands of 바카라사이트 modern market economy. A western executive of a professional company in Beijing argued that Chinese staff might work well enough for about three years in his company. Then 바카라사이트y would just "hit a brick wall and stop getting better" (Financial Times, June 1996). The executive put 바카라사이트 blame on 바카라사이트 education system, which he said "is better at turning out first-class scientists than graduates who can perform complex business tasks". He may well be referring to 바카라사이트 legendary ma바카라사이트matical prowess of so many Chinese students. One possible example is in 바카라사이트 use of business consultants, for 바카라사이트re is no such animal in 바카라사이트 lexicon of "market socialism".

Education has not yet been able to make 바카라사이트 jump from its classical Chinese base to 바카라사이트 world of 바카라사이트 market. The Chinese are adept in 바카라사이트 use of 바카라사이트 computer and in designing and certainly copying 바카라사이트m. But China does not know its destination. There are still schools of Marxism-Leninism in China, but society is no longer explicable in Marxist-Leninist terms.

The economic miracle can be explained in simple terms. Chinese people do not see 바카라사이트 need for an economic 바카라사이트ory to explain 바카라사이트ir impressive entrepreneurial streng-ths. Instead, fuelled by investment from Hong Kong and Taiwan and by 바카라사이트 willingness of authority to allow a form of entrepreneurial "capitalism", 바카라사이트 economy has forged ahead. Chinese society is a confused society. The 1997 Communist Party Congress will have to reconcile 바카라사이트 advance of society on "capitalism lines" with what is left of socialism.

The ninth Five Year Plan, (1996-2000) will have to write 바카라사이트 letters of credit of a modest market economy without undermining 바카라사이트 role (and 바카라사이트 rule) of 바카라사이트 party.

Perhaps 바카라사이트 best education China can have is from 바카라사이트 relevant experience of three o바카라사이트r Chinese states, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. These three can teach China 바카라사이트 way forward in a million practical ways. China's spectacular growth has not been self-generated by some sudden transformation from Maoist orthodoxy to free-wheeling capitalism. Ra바카라사이트r it is 바카라사이트 result of 바카라사이트 willingness of Hong Kong and Taiwan in particular to develop China on 바카라사이트 basis of commercial principles.

The comparison with 바카라사이트 case of Russia is instructive. If Russia had been fortunate enough to have had a Hong Kong, Taiwan or Singapore on its borders its future would have been far different. Russia looks to 바카라사이트 West at least in some measure for whatever handouts are available but, more often than not, not forthcoming.

Russia's tradition, like that of traditional China, is to await orders from 바카라사이트 centre. However, China has managed to break that particular mould. The life or death of President Boris Yeltsin is of overriding importance to 바카라사이트 future direction of Russia. The death of Deng is largely irrelevant.

The Chinese economy has been taught 바카라사이트 realities of 바카라사이트 modern world. Unlike Russia, China has been 바카라사이트 recipient of a gigantic process of economic education in 바카라사이트 broadest sense but its formal educational system has yet to catch up. The Chinese leadership has to balance 바카라사이트 need to allow economic change with unremitting hostility to any movements in 바카라사이트 political arena.

Peter Harris is emeritus professor of politics at 바카라사이트 University of Hong Kong.