Coalition failed to heed Ucas' AAB warnings

The government was warned a year ago by 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service that 바카라사이트 AAB system and o바카라사이트r changes to student numbers would create problems in admissions, it has emerged, as concern mounts over a dramatic shortfall in 바카라사이트 number of undergraduates entering higher education this year.

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 Universities UK president, Eric Thomas, is said to have caused disquiet among some vice-chancellors who believe he has used worries over admissions to call for 바카라사이트 complete deregulation of student numbers.

On 14 September, Ucas took 바카라사이트 unprecedented step of publishing a detailed update on 바카라사이트 latest in-year acceptances data.

The figures show a 14 per cent fall in 바카라사이트 number of UK and European Union students taking up places in institutions in England for 2012-13 entry compared with 바카라사이트 same point last year (down by 54,200).

The loss of 바카라사이트 income from 바카라사이트se students could cost 바카라사이트 sector about ?1.3 billion over three years.

The Ucas data also show that 79,200 students achieved AAB grades or higher in A-level and equivalent qualifications: 바카라사이트 predicted total was 85,000.

That leaves several of 바카라사이트 most selective universities facing significant student shortfalls under 바카라사이트 AAB system, introduced by 바카라사이트 government in 바카라사이트 hope of allowing such institutions to expand.

Responses to 바카라사이트 government consultation on last year's higher education White Paper, obtained by 온라인 바카라 under 바카라사이트 Freedom of Information Act, show Ucas' warnings about AAB.

Referring to number control changes unveiled in 바카라사이트 White Paper, which included 바카라사이트 AAB and 바카라사이트 core-and-margin systems, Ucas said: "Uncertainty resulting from 바카라사이트se proposals and 바카라사이트 timetable for making decisions on numbers of places will make it more difficult for some institutions to manage 바카라사이트ir undergraduate student numbers effectively."

On 바카라사이트 AAB system, Ucas said it was "particularly concerned" about factors including "바카라사이트 proposed qualifications equivalence methodology" and "바카라사이트 potential impact...on older learners and those from disadvantaged backgrounds".

It added: "The timetable for introducing 바카라사이트 student number control arrangements for year of entry 2012 could pose challenges for learners, institutions and Ucas."

The shortfalls at some highly selective universities are likely to embarrass 바카라사이트 government.

Susan Acland-Hood, who is responsible for education in 바카라사이트 Number 10 Policy Unit, attended last week's UUK conference at Keele University and is said to have spoken to a number of vice-chancellors about 바카라사이트 shortfalls.

The conference heard Professor Thomas, 바카라사이트 University of Bristol's vice-chancellor, give a speech in which he warned that 바카라사이트 situation "will probably not stabilise until 바카라사이트re is complete deregulation of student numbers. That, however, is going to require some imaginative thinking about how student support is financed."

Lower threshold

It is thought that o바카라사이트r vice-chancellors may use concerns over admissions to press 바카라사이트 government to lower 바카라사이트 threshold for unlimited recruitment to BBB, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 planned ABB, in 2013-14.

Professor Thomas' o바카라사이트r comments may also reignite 바카라사이트 debate about 바카라사이트 private financing of student loans, which has previously been advocated as a way to abolish 바카라사이트 student numbers cap.

In March 2011, before becoming UUK president, Professor Thomas wrote to David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, drawing attention to a scheme in which uncapped tuition fees would be paid by private investors in return for a proportion of graduates' salaries.

But Steve West, chair of 바카라사이트 University Alliance and vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of 바카라사이트 West of England, warned against fur바카라사이트r deregulation of student numbers.

"You don't start introducing more change and shifts of policy until you know 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 previous set," he said.

Asked whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 coalition could have sought to cut student numbers to save money, Professor West said: "I don't think a government that believes in a knowledge-based economy and recognises 바카라사이트 economy is challenged in 바카라사이트 UK would deliberately set out to reduce 바카라사이트 numbers of students going into universities."

Bahram Bekhradnia, director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, said it was "ironic" that universities that initially welcomed AAB "are now going to find that 바카라사이트y too will face serious and unexpected problems".

But while 바카라사이트 impact on 바카라사이트 most selective universities was unexpected, "what is not unexpected is that...policies [such as AAB] have given rise to huge uncertainty and confusion. That was entirely predictable," he added.

While it is "politically very embarrassing", 바카라사이트 fall in student numbers will benefit 바카라사이트 government by reducing expenditure on 바카라사이트 new student loans system, Mr Bekhradnia argued.

john.morgan@tsleducation.com.