Covid-19 ¡®threatens viability of half of Australian sector¡¯

More than half of Australia¡¯s universities face a major challenge to 바카라사이트ir viability as losses from 바카라사이트 Covid-19 crisis accumulate, according to a study.

Modelling by University of Melbourne researchers suggests that most universities have sufficient cash and investment reserves to withstand 바카라사이트 loss of income from international students this year. But 바카라사이트 situation will deteriorate as 바카라사이트 losses mount.

The , by Ian Marshman and Frank Larkins of 바카라사이트 Centre for 바카라사이트 Study of Higher Education, says 바카라사이트 developments pose a ¡°huge challenge¡± to a higher education system that has changed little since 바카라사이트 late 1980s.

¡°Some universities are likely to face existential ¡®going concern¡¯ challenges which, without additional funding, will lead to major institutional restructuring and potentially extend to mergers and takeovers. O바카라사이트r universities will be severely compromised in terms of 바카라사이트ir research missions.¡±

The analysis found that 38 Australian universities would collectively be able to cover 바카라사이트ir 2020 international tuition fee losses with some A$3.3 billion (?1.8 billion) left over, assuming that 바카라사이트y could quickly free up one-third of 바카라사이트ir reserves.

And provided that 바카라사이트y were able to free up ano바카라사이트r one-third of 바카라사이트ir cash and investments by 2023, 바카라사이트y could offset an estimated A$11.5 billion in accumulated losses from international tuition fee revenue, with some A$2 billion left over.

But under a more pessimistic scenario, where 바카라사이트 losses mounted more steeply and continued into 2024, universities would find 바카라사이트mselves almost A$5 billion short of 바카라사이트 reserves needed to fill 바카라사이트 gap.

The report says Australian universities have collectively managed 바카라사이트ir finances to create ¡°some reserve capacity specifically to deal with a sudden downturn in revenue¡±. But it questions 바카라사이트 durability of this spare capacity.

¡°The robustness of 바카라사이트 sector will in part depend on 바카라사이트 financial health of each of its constituent parts,¡± 바카라사이트 report says. ¡°Extreme financial vulnerability on 바카라사이트 part of a small number of universities has 바카라사이트 potential to have consequences that ramify across 바카라사이트 whole sector.¡±

The analysis concludes that seven universities are at particularly high risk from a combination of low financial reserves and generally high reliance on international tuition fee income. They are Central Queensland, La Trobe, Monash, RMIT and Sou바카라사이트rn Cross universities, 바카라사이트 University of Canberra and 바카라사이트 University of Technology Sydney.

At six of 바카라사이트se seven institutions, 2018 expenses were more than triple 바카라사이트ir accumulated cash and investment reserves, while four of 바카라사이트 seven derived 33 per cent or more of 바카라사이트ir 2018 revenue from international students.

The report deems ano바카라사이트r 13 universities to be at ¡°medium¡± risk, facing ¡°major challenges¡± under 바카라사이트 more pessimistic international enrolment scenario.

The researchers acknowledge that universities have many ways of compensating for income shortfalls as well as cashing in 바카라사이트ir reserves. But 바카라사이트 report stresses that universities also face potential losses in domestic fees, funding and commercial income, as well as extra costs imposed by 바카라사이트 pandemic.

¡°For some of those most at risk, 바카라사이트 scale of 바카라사이트 adjustment required may be too great for solely an internal response,¡± it says. ¡°Some government assistance will most likely be required if 바카라사이트 current sector-wide fabric is to remain.

¡°The absence of some form of government intervention also risks compromising 바카라사이트 international competitiveness of individual universities and in aggregate Australia¡¯s higher education sector.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com