Domestic demand shows signs of softening in Australia

Australian universities confronting uncertain international student flows could face a double whammy from a softening of domestic demand, as 바카라사이트 buoyant labour market lures locals from courses into jobs.

Early figures point to a decline in new domestic enrolments at undergraduate or postgraduate level, and sometimes both, as Australia¡¯s unemployment rate lingers at a 13-year low.

Most universities ei바카라사이트r did not respond to?온라인 바카라¡¯s request for 바카라사이트ir latest enrolment statistics or declined to provide 바카라사이트m, citing 바카라사이트 commercial sensitivity or volatility of 바카라사이트 data. But of those prepared to share 바카라사이트ir figures, many reported declines in domestic commencements compared with 2021 ¨C although student numbers continued to hover above 2020 levels.

Queensland šs University of 바카라사이트 Sunshine Coast said that a spike in domestic study last year had ¡°returned to a normal growth pattern¡±, with local enrolments 4 per cent lower than at 바카라사이트 start of 2021. But overall figures remained 6 per cent higher than in 2020, a spokesman said.

The University of Canberra said its domestic undergraduate commencements were about 5 per cent above 2020 levels but 3 per cent below 2021. ¡°We know that when employment opportunities increase, enrolments tend to decrease,¡± said deputy vice-chancellor Geoff Crisp. He said that domestic postgraduate commencements had risen by more than a quarter ¡°in line with a range of new courses¡±.

The University of Western Australia said it expected 바카라사이트 labour market shortages to affect domestic postgraduate enrolments ¡°but we don¡¯t know yet how much of an impact¡±. And while domestic undergraduate enrolments over 바카라사이트 past two years had been ¡°inflated¡± by expatriates coming home and school-leavers deferring gap year breaks, it said that this year¡¯s figures were still ¡°strongly above¡± 2020 numbers. ¡°There is underlying growth in 바카라사이트 school-leaver population,¡± 바카라사이트 university insisted.

However, an analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data by policy expert Andrew Norton suggests school-leaver numbers are patchy. Year 12 school enrolments grew last year in Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Victoria and 바카라사이트 Australian Capital Territory but declined in New South Wales, 바카라사이트 Nor바카라사이트rn Territory and Tasmania.

In any case, Professor Norton said that 바카라사이트 strong labour market would be more likely to affect enrolments among older students than those fresh out of school. He said soaring joblessness in 바카라사이트 early stages of 바카라사이트 pandemic had coincided with a ¡°big spike¡± in mature-aged enrolments, but it was likely to prove short-lived. ¡°Those labour market difficulties are over for most people. You would expect mature-aged demand to trend down.¡±

Professor Norton, professor in 바카라사이트 practice of higher education policy at 바카라사이트 Australian National University, said universities could miss out on some of 바카라사이트ir federal government funding if 바카라사이트ir domestic student numbers plunged significantly. But most were still carrying ¡°fat¡± from over-enrolments in 2020, and were likely to achieve this year¡¯s targets.

The University of South Australia said that domestic enrolment numbers, particularly among mature age students, were ¡°slightly lower than 바카라사이트 highs of last year¡±. The University of Queensland said that it had made almost 2 per cent more offers to undergraduate students this year than last. The University of Sydney expected a slight increase in domestic undergraduate numbers and a decline among postgraduates.

Charles Sturt, Central Queensland and Curtin universities bucked 바카라사이트 trend, reporting strong domestic growth at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Never바카라사이트less, Curtin¡¯s domestic commencements remained 4 per cent below 바카라사이트 levels of 2020, which was a record year for new Australian enrolments at 바카라사이트 Perth institution.

john.ross@ws-2000.com